Oil CEO said

"Let's get out of the game of "seeing" the future."

I say, EXACTLY.

Look, we all know the direction we have to go.  Consumption has to come down, peak yesterday or peak in 20 years.

Diversification of energy supply has to go up, peak yesterday or peak in 20 years.

Greenhouse gas is a critical issue to at least stabilize, peak yesterday or peak in 20 years.

Light sweet crude oil and natural gas are natural wonders, peak yesterday or peak in 20 years.

The economic burden of exporting billions, trillions, is bleeding our nation to death, peak yesterday, or peak in 20 years.

The strategic weakness created by our massive dependence on a smaller and smaller part of the world is leaving us vulnerable in a way we have never been, peak yesterday, or peak in 20 years.

The level of waste is an atrocity, peak yesterday, or peak in 20 years.

Our problem is this:  Everytime we make a major new find, does the public take the position that "hey, we have a bit of breathing room, it gives us a small bit of extra time to make the changes needed, and reduce fuel consumption first, by say 5%, then 10%, then 20%....the finds are proving that we still have a fair amount of oil left to assist in these changes if we begin to do so now...we can bring down consumption while production holds steady....and then, at whatever point begins to drop, we will have technology already tested, and be able to back down on consumption as we diversify."

Now, do you hear anybody out in the press talking that way?  No, what they say is, "oh boy, the price will drop back and we will be able to have a nice SUV  for a few more years", or "you know, I would like to take one last fling, I have never owned a speedboat that really gets your blood going, and, helll, I'm getting older, I deserve to live a little....or one of them new Bimmer 500 horsepower sedens, have you seen that, performs like a Porsche but as comfortable as luxury car!  And you know the rich aren't conservin' shiit, or they wouldn't be building them...."

If we simply see each new find as an excuse not to change, not to use the reprieve, then timing the future, timing the peak, and finding more oil don't matter, the outcome will be exactly the same.

All that will matter is when the right chamber of the gun in Russian Roulette comes before the barrel....we may get lucky, and make it to the old folks home, and find it unheated and unlit, with no medical machinery, or it may come next winter, with a sudden shock of fuel oil too expensive for any but the most wealthy to afford....who can guess?  But, it don't matter, we will all know what needed to be done....but by then, we will have used our reprieves up....the 10% or 20% a few years behind us could have gotten us by, but it by then, whether it is 2007, 2010 or 2030 won't be of any use.  We actually knew it a third of century ago, but what happened.  The North Sea, Saudi Arabia, offshore oil, Alaska....we found bought and used one more reprieve, and had the biggest party by the biggest young population in history.

The exact date does not matter to the nation, without major change, the outcome remains the same.  It does matter to the individual.  Can he/she buy one more party, one more reprieve?  We count our years...damm posterity, can we find enough in small pots or big ones, to get us to the grave?
This is why we play the  " game of "seeing" the future."  We count our years against the years to "peak" that will decide whether we can live the good life and avoid change, and die in peace.

A generation that has no purpose except to hang on by it's fingernails, and bleed the world dry just as we die, this our noble version of success.  

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

Sometimes you almost bring tears to my eyes.

Peak Yesterday or in 20 years.

Hello, people? Hellooo?

Hello ThatItImOut,

Excellent essay! Jay Hanson came to the same conclusion.  Whether Peakoil Yesterday, or in Twenty Years, he said the mass majority and especially the majority of our leaders will never change; it is in our Genes to seek MPP:
-----------------------------------
"The Maximum Power Principle states that all open systems (Bernard cells, ecosystems, people, societies, etc.) evolve to degrade as much energy as possible while allowing for the continued existence of the larger systems they are part of."

"All species expand as much as resources allow and predators, parasites, and physical conditions permit. When a species is introduced into a new habitat with abundant resources that accumulated before its arrival, the population expands rapidly until all the resources are used up. In wine making, for example, a population of yeast cells in freshly-pressed grape juice grows exponentially until nutrients are exhausted -- or waste products become toxic."
 -- David Price; http://dieoff.com/page137.htm

This is commonly seen in the pursuit of individual gain at the expense of the larger community. When individuals maximize gain, populations experience overshoot and die off.
--------------------------------------
IMO, the best we can hope to do is to somehow optimize our decline for the squeeze thru the Bottleneck.  I realize it is not much to go on--but remember, no other species ever had the mental capacity and understanding to even try.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Good Morning Totoneila,

Re "Maximum Power Principle"
You might enjoy reading Into The Cool by Schneider and Sagan. It takes you through the second law of thermodynamics with wonderful detail right into nonequilibrium metastable thermodynamic systems of which humans are an example. The conclusion matches yours.

You have just described the 800# gorilla in the room. Every MSM article about PO, and GW and all other stories on resource depletion for that matter, carry this single-generation focus without exception. Looking out for number one trumps posterity every time - it is natural & inevitable for the vast majority of individuals.
Every MSM article about PO, and GW and all other stories on resource depletion for that matter, carry this single-generation focus without exception. Looking out for number one trumps posterity every time - it is natural & inevitable for the vast majority of individuals

If this would change, we would have a fighting chance at doing the right thing.  Why is it that posterity as you say, or the desire to leave an admired, lasting legacy is no longer a value that seems to be held by many, but importantly, is also no longer held by those with money and power ?  

You really only need look at the way our most lasting creations such as buildings have changed since the late 19th century.  

Re: Look, we all know the direction we have to go. Consumption has to come down, peak yesterday or peak in 20 years

Yes, WE do. I am not a seer and nobody I respect is one either. But some folks like Yergin or Lynch have a Chrystal Ball as they project the economic & technological happiness of the past onto the future.

You're writing a lot of stuff lately, Roger. What do you suggest we do about them? -- try to keep it pithy  

Pithy?  Does that sound like me? :-)

But, I will try....
Everyone here keeps saying things smiliar to, " when have you ever heard of people giving wealth/power/lifestyle/consumption however you want to say it, voluntarily, without crisis or without being forced.

That is why my argument, although it is not all that popular here, is that you have to trick um'.  The first wave of consumption reductions have to be what the designers call "transparent", meaning that they are as invisible as a clean sheet of glass, in other words, the reducttion in consumption is built in in such a way as to be invisible, and in fact the product is actually superior in othr areas to older, dirtier designs, and in fact, hip or in style.

What have I just described?  Herein lies the secret of the Toyota Prius Hybrid for example.  All the reviewers say it performs as well as a gasoline car, it is smooth and quite, maybe even smoother and quiter at lower speeds than a gasoline car, and you have to go to the filling station less frequently, thus increasing the convenience factor  (what a thought, convenience saving fuel instead of costing it!)  Some of the newer hybrid sedans are seen by some road testers as superior in areas other than fuel mileage to their gasoline sister models  (the Camry is a VERY good car, but as a hybrid, even in it's earliest generation, it may already be as good or better than it's companion gasoline model.  At what point might it pay to just slowly phase out the gas only hybrid, as the batteries get even better. The upcoming generation of plug hybrids may be so quite and so convenient as to make people wonder why they ever tolerated gasoline only cars.

What other areas show possibilities of similiar advantage?  AlanfromBigeasy often talks about electric rail for moving goods.  That is a great case in point.  The noise level goes down, the smoke level goes down, think how much nicer the sound and air would be in areas around railroad tracks with electric rail!
First for moving goods, and then advancing, as fuel prices advanced, to commuter and long haul rail.  All the advantages, cleaner, quieter, and more convenient.  There is the capital costs, but then, after that, it's the ultimate "hip" and stylish answer.

Geothermal or ground coupled heat pumps.  I know of know one who does not rave about them once they actually own them, and not just on the basis of fuel economy, but on the basis of clean, convenient climate control.  Winter /summer climate in one unit, no smoke, no fear of natural gas or propane fires and explosions, gas leaks killing the whole family in their sleep...poetic beauty as your household climate control lives it's whole existance in a 56 degree mild spring environment.  It can be upsized to office buildings, shopping malls and Walmarts, the ultimate clean and conveneint alternative.

The last I will talk about now is distributed generation.  This is just too hip....a small CHP unit in the basement or garage, that provides electric power, heat, hot water and cooling....all from one incoming natural gas line or propane tank.  This may sound strange given that I just endorsed heat pumps, but they can work in tandem, and there are places where heat pumps will not work as well, in particular if your goal is being lit up when everyone else is down in a thundertorm, windstorm, blizzard or blackout, the ultimate one upping the Jones!  The efficiency of distributed power can be fantastic, can make America more secure from terroists attack and more able to withstand weather events or fuel cutoffs.  Photovoltaic solar can be mixed in, (how's that for status?), and Wind can be added to the grid where it is available.  Pumped hydro storage can smooth out the day night peaks/valleys, and rescue almost a whole "second grid" worth of power from the off peak hours.

T avoid not being "un-pithy", I will stop there.  Notice I have not used such examples as tar sands, ethanol, fusion nuclear, hydrogen fuel cells, nor a sizable number of other technologies, simply because these have not proven themselves.  The ideas I listed exist now, can be implemented now, and in conjunction with the "transparent conservation" of insulation, solar oriented passive houses, North side protection of the wall, etc, could cut America's fuel consumption WHILE MAKING AMERICANS MORE SPOILED AND COMFORTABLE.  Among the most edgy things I would recommend are the plug hybrids, and a line of hydraulic hybrid garbage trucks, school buses, and delivery trucks which would get 50% better fuel efficiency than conventional drive.

One more thing: Diversity of fuel supply.  I actually read the other day that if the weather stayed unusually warm, the nat gas companies may actually have to "flare" some off due to no where to store it!!!!

In the age we are in, this is so barbaric so as to transcend reality.  Does that really still go on.  With no summer market for propane, methane or butane it actually could.  We must, MUST examine dividing our fuel consumption up between LPG, natural gas, gasoline, Diesel, and grid provided power, plust the bio fuels that will be there whether we think they are a good idea or not.
Diversity, advanced design, "transparent" and "stylish" reductions in fuel that spoil us more...the amount of consumption reduction would be astounding, and the creative, artistic landscape of America would be an inspiration to our youth....and this is only the front edge.

Opps, I may have passed "pithy" a few lines ago!  :-)

Thank you, Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout

Roger.  Thanks for saying so well what I've been thinking. The MSM is touting the "good news" that gas prices have come down. I think their good news is bad news.  It just goes to show we cannot rely on the market. We need to set up the right signals through taxation and stick to a long term program to get off oil and fossil fuels in general. The "bad news" is that we have learned nothing.

Although Bush says we are addicted to oil; I'm sure he and the Republicans are pleased that oil and gas prices have gone down and we have found yet another "find" that will save us all --- at least until the next election. The alarm is only sounded when oil and gas prices are up.

the outcome will be exactly the same

Not quite. The longer it takes to get to the peak, the worse it will be - more people, less resources, steeper drop much further down.

In a cynical kind of way, it would be a good thing for humankind if the crisis arrived tomorrow.

For each individual, it would be a catastrophe, whether it arrived sooner or later, of course.

Good night from Old Europe,

   Davidyson

When was the last time collective humanity engaged in a significant, undesired lifestyle reduction in anticipation of something that may happen "who knows - maybe 10, 20, 30 yrs or so out there?"

It is the reality of human nature that requires us to recognize a problem as urgent and imminent in order to motivate change. I think there is enough evidence out there to paint a very urgent picture (in contrast to CERA, etc) which I guess is where we differ. No decision is made with absolute certainty when you enter into it
(marriage, career, house, etc) - you look at the data, make the best assessment you can, and take action.