Re: Look, we all know the direction we have to go. Consumption has to come down, peak yesterday or peak in 20 years

Yes, WE do. I am not a seer and nobody I respect is one either. But some folks like Yergin or Lynch have a Chrystal Ball as they project the economic & technological happiness of the past onto the future.

You're writing a lot of stuff lately, Roger. What do you suggest we do about them? -- try to keep it pithy  

Pithy?  Does that sound like me? :-)

But, I will try....
Everyone here keeps saying things smiliar to, " when have you ever heard of people giving wealth/power/lifestyle/consumption however you want to say it, voluntarily, without crisis or without being forced.

That is why my argument, although it is not all that popular here, is that you have to trick um'.  The first wave of consumption reductions have to be what the designers call "transparent", meaning that they are as invisible as a clean sheet of glass, in other words, the reducttion in consumption is built in in such a way as to be invisible, and in fact the product is actually superior in othr areas to older, dirtier designs, and in fact, hip or in style.

What have I just described?  Herein lies the secret of the Toyota Prius Hybrid for example.  All the reviewers say it performs as well as a gasoline car, it is smooth and quite, maybe even smoother and quiter at lower speeds than a gasoline car, and you have to go to the filling station less frequently, thus increasing the convenience factor  (what a thought, convenience saving fuel instead of costing it!)  Some of the newer hybrid sedans are seen by some road testers as superior in areas other than fuel mileage to their gasoline sister models  (the Camry is a VERY good car, but as a hybrid, even in it's earliest generation, it may already be as good or better than it's companion gasoline model.  At what point might it pay to just slowly phase out the gas only hybrid, as the batteries get even better. The upcoming generation of plug hybrids may be so quite and so convenient as to make people wonder why they ever tolerated gasoline only cars.

What other areas show possibilities of similiar advantage?  AlanfromBigeasy often talks about electric rail for moving goods.  That is a great case in point.  The noise level goes down, the smoke level goes down, think how much nicer the sound and air would be in areas around railroad tracks with electric rail!
First for moving goods, and then advancing, as fuel prices advanced, to commuter and long haul rail.  All the advantages, cleaner, quieter, and more convenient.  There is the capital costs, but then, after that, it's the ultimate "hip" and stylish answer.

Geothermal or ground coupled heat pumps.  I know of know one who does not rave about them once they actually own them, and not just on the basis of fuel economy, but on the basis of clean, convenient climate control.  Winter /summer climate in one unit, no smoke, no fear of natural gas or propane fires and explosions, gas leaks killing the whole family in their sleep...poetic beauty as your household climate control lives it's whole existance in a 56 degree mild spring environment.  It can be upsized to office buildings, shopping malls and Walmarts, the ultimate clean and conveneint alternative.

The last I will talk about now is distributed generation.  This is just too hip....a small CHP unit in the basement or garage, that provides electric power, heat, hot water and cooling....all from one incoming natural gas line or propane tank.  This may sound strange given that I just endorsed heat pumps, but they can work in tandem, and there are places where heat pumps will not work as well, in particular if your goal is being lit up when everyone else is down in a thundertorm, windstorm, blizzard or blackout, the ultimate one upping the Jones!  The efficiency of distributed power can be fantastic, can make America more secure from terroists attack and more able to withstand weather events or fuel cutoffs.  Photovoltaic solar can be mixed in, (how's that for status?), and Wind can be added to the grid where it is available.  Pumped hydro storage can smooth out the day night peaks/valleys, and rescue almost a whole "second grid" worth of power from the off peak hours.

T avoid not being "un-pithy", I will stop there.  Notice I have not used such examples as tar sands, ethanol, fusion nuclear, hydrogen fuel cells, nor a sizable number of other technologies, simply because these have not proven themselves.  The ideas I listed exist now, can be implemented now, and in conjunction with the "transparent conservation" of insulation, solar oriented passive houses, North side protection of the wall, etc, could cut America's fuel consumption WHILE MAKING AMERICANS MORE SPOILED AND COMFORTABLE.  Among the most edgy things I would recommend are the plug hybrids, and a line of hydraulic hybrid garbage trucks, school buses, and delivery trucks which would get 50% better fuel efficiency than conventional drive.

One more thing: Diversity of fuel supply.  I actually read the other day that if the weather stayed unusually warm, the nat gas companies may actually have to "flare" some off due to no where to store it!!!!

In the age we are in, this is so barbaric so as to transcend reality.  Does that really still go on.  With no summer market for propane, methane or butane it actually could.  We must, MUST examine dividing our fuel consumption up between LPG, natural gas, gasoline, Diesel, and grid provided power, plust the bio fuels that will be there whether we think they are a good idea or not.
Diversity, advanced design, "transparent" and "stylish" reductions in fuel that spoil us more...the amount of consumption reduction would be astounding, and the creative, artistic landscape of America would be an inspiration to our youth....and this is only the front edge.

Opps, I may have passed "pithy" a few lines ago!  :-)

Thank you, Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout