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66 comments on The Loglet Analysis

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chem on September 6, 2006 - 6:04pm

Very nice. I think this gives a more realistic description than the Hubbert curve.

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folsomman on September 6, 2006 - 7:35pm

Judging how realistic it is might better be done by running a few country curves through the method. Hubbert linearization works pretty well on many of them that have passed peak. Do loglets do as well?

Mark Folsom

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Khebab on September 6, 2006 - 8:54pm

The HL does pretty well on some but not not so well on others. I'm planning to test this method on other countries in a next post.

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biologist on September 6, 2006 - 8:55pm

It's as realistic as any other extension of curves without a proof of the underlying laws of nature: not very realistic. Isn't it strange that there are lots of smaller loglets in the left (past) part of the curve, but not a single one in the future? The loglet analysis misses all the future small loglet curves that have not started yet: arctic oil, widespread CO2 injection etc.

If you do a country analysis, try and make a prediction for the North Sea or Britain with the data up to 1990, 1995, etc. and checck how the predicted values change.

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