Excellent break down of the discovery, Dave and Bubba. It highlights one of the reasons I am very cautious about pinning a date on Peak Oil. I have always said that it could be 2010 from where I stand, but it is very hard to see out farther than that. The reason it is hard to see out farther than 2-3 years is that new discoveries will be made, and new projects will be announced. Fields will be depleted, and fields will be discovered.

But these factors overlook the very important question: Even if Peak Oil is ultimately delayed for 5 or 10 years, is this a problem we want to leave for our children to deal with? Isn't it better that we start mitigation efforts right now, while we still have the petroleum in place to begin a transition to a less consumptive society?

It is clear from the hyperbole following this discovery that many people just don't do basic math. They don't appreciate how much oil we use, and they don't appreciate the rapid growth of the economies of China and India. This situation is very similar to my ethanol debates, where people assume that we will naturally transition from oil to ethanol. Just a few cursory calculations will show that this isn't feasible. Likewise, a few calculations show that this new discovery will not save the day. But it seems that journalists usually don't do a sanity check on these numbers before reporting the rosy scenarios designed to make us all feel good about the future.

Keep up the good fight, but let's recognize that these sorts of discoveries are going to happen. Whether they ultimately delay Peak Oil by 2 years or 10 years will not matter in the end. This just gives us more time to act, if we can muster the political will to do so.

Right on, Robert Rapier! We all need to focus on doing the right things to help transition to a society based on sustainable energy. Five or ten years gained by new technolgy will help us transition to solar, wind and nuclear so that the world and modern civilisation can survive and prosper.

So what I'm going to focus on is 1.developing more oil and gas resources, primarily through redevelopment of old Texas fields, and 2.personally economising on energy use and 3. spreading the awareness of Peak Oil.

Five or ten years gained by new technolgy will help us transition to solar, wind and nuclear so that the world and modern civilisation can survive and prosper.

Sorry, but 5 or ten years more time also means 5 to 10 years more population growth, more arable land degradation and water waste.

If new finds are supposed to make a difference for the transition, they must more than compensate for the rapidly worsening general conditions.

Is there any plan how to make this a dure thing to happen?

My favourite wisdom: "Hoping just means you don't have a plan!"

   Davidyson

My favourite wisdom: "Hoping just means you don't have a plan!"

Do you have one?

Good question.

Answer: Only half-way. I am working at it.
I recently did a 3-hour spanish-inquisition-style interview with Ottmar Edenhofer, chief economist of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. One of my questions was if our economic system is really doomed to grow.
He slightly evaded the answer and said something along the lines of "climate-wise, we can probably afford to grow for another one or two decades. After that, we must find something new. I just don't know what."
If he can't figure how to get off the growth addiction as a full-time professional, how could I as an amateur in my leisure time?

But at least I don't buy complacency by the futile way of hoping. (Okay, that's how I see it.)

Cheers,

   Davidyson

We could build a Kingsbury-Arnold spaceport. A linear accelerator in orbit that we can use as the second stage of a space launch facility. That drops the cost to orbit to ten dollars a pound and means we can build space colonies and evacuate the planet.
That, or some kind of zero point energy source are the only ways out that I see.
wkwillis?  One time member of Northwest L5?  If so, greetings from the past.  Nice to see that a few people remember that concept.  For anyone interested, scanned PDF copies of the two-part Analog article from 1979 are online at the website of the last holdouts that I know of from the original L5 Society.  That's the Sacramento L5 Society.

Even in 1979, when Don and I wrote that article, we were both well aware that growth could not continue indefinitely.  I thought of the orbiting spaceport as a kind of conceptual "existance proof" that a spacefaring civilization was possible and economically feasible--provided that the resources to build the required infrastructure could be mobilized.  But it was the capabilities that cheap space transportation enabled that I was interested in--not growth.

There are folks who have been giving serious thought to how to avoid the need for growth at the heart of our current economic system. Google "steady state economics" or variants.

"Hope is not a plan" is a snappier way of saying that. I think it's a military saying.
RR,

"Even if Peak Oil is ultimately delayed for 5 or 10 years, is this a problem we want to leave for our children to deal with?"

I don't know about the other people here, but I intend to stick around for longer than that.

I have a little test for everybody; take the oldest age you might conceivably reach, translate that into a date, and look at ASPO's or even the EIA's graphs. For most of us, no matter when the peak, the trough will be getting pretty close by the time we "slide off this mortal coil."  

In fact, dealing with the "growing trough" (is that a mixed metaphor or what?) at age 85 is a lot grimmer than at age 25. That's why I'm building the model homestead now.

(looming dearth? growing trough, anyone have a snappy label for this?)

Trough is the wrong word. It implies a sin wave, with peak, trough, peak. If there is only one peak, there can be no trough; only a gentle descent onto the vast plains of Oldavai. (which, being a gorge, has no plains. Damn, I can't seem to get my metaphors right today...)
"Sin wave" is a bit moralistic, eh? Another: In The Pilgrim's Progress, the protagonist sinks into a deep metaphorical bog called the Slough of Despond.
There is only perpetual decline if you assume a later increase in energy cannoy be based on anything besides oil.  I believe a trough is the most realistic projection, but then again I haven't bought into extreme fatalism.  

I really hate the stupid Olduvai references.  Who the hell came up with them anyway?  Such melodrama is best reserve for daytime soap operas.  

Approaching cliff?
Nearing chasm?
Looming abyss?
Falling off the side of the mountain?
Even the most optimistic estimates (i.e. cornucopians) admit a peak date between 2030 and 2050. That's not altogether fucking far away - within the lifespan of many people today.

Argument-wise, that's what I would focus on. The future, even under the best of circumstances, isn't far away.

The problem is our political system. It is fundametnally corrupted to keep the status-quo the status quo until the whole damn thing collapses. It is an impediment.

Take slavery - it took a goddamn civil war to end it and
near civil war in the 1960s to finally ensure African-Americans had the right to vote in the South; both were obvious, clear evils. Peak oil and the current endless growth base of our economy are like slavery and segregation in terms of their political intractability, only thousands upon thousands of times worse.  

Realisticaly, we should expect things to get far, far, far worse before change begins to be seriously talked about in this country.

"and near civil war in the 1960s to finally ensure African-Americans had the right to vote in the South"

Now if only the right to vote in the North, i.e. Ohio, could be guaranteed, and once guaranteed, in only one could guarantee that the votes will be counted.

Anyway that aside, I think you are wrong to argue that Peak Oilers should rest the case on the optomistic scenario.  People will go back to sleep, assured that the unnamed "they' will have adequate time to "come up with something".

The Peak Oil Event is on, now.  We could use the date at which the historic decline in wholesale/retail prices reversed in around Y2K as a starting point for the event.

But the most important point, as I see it, is the shift in the cost of producing oil/energy.  Here I think even Colin Campbell has made a mistake by claiming as he has on several occasions that the cost of production has not risen (he is making a point in relation to oil company profits and I appreciate that).

Even if it is true, for example, that technological advance means that deep water oil is being produced at a lower cost x-number of years after deep water began, the marginal cost of a barrel of oil has risen from the days of on-shore and shallow off-shore, because deep water remains a more expensive process.  Likewise with tar pit sludge.  Likewise with ultra-deep water.  Likewise with the rest of the now 'attractive' low-quality sulpher and metal laden sludge.
Likewise with natural gas as smaller and smaller finds require more and more effort.  Likewise with the increased military burden.  

This all adds up to more and more of the economy dedicated to the production of energy, in other words, a shift of resources to you guys in the industry (and the military), away from the rest of us and whatever it is we do (education, healthcare, entertainment, etc).  

It is a scenario from which escape could only occur if the rest of the economy was steadily increasing its real leverage (I don't accept the integrity of the GDP metric)  per BTU at a rate which outstripped the transfer of economic effort, resources and opportunity from the non-energy producing sector to the energy producing sector of the economy.

It is very difficult to measure the economic rebalancing, simply because the leverage (efficiency, effectiveness...) per btu is hard to quantify.  So to some extent we have to squint our eyes to discern the outline of what is happening (Einstein might have called it intuition). But it is happening and it is the essence of the Peak Oil event.

Correct me if I'm making a bad analogy, but in the LastSasquach's example, its taking more and more Sasquaches to maintain our Mongo supply(oil supply) and that is in turn the sign to you that we are at or very near Peak Mongos(Oil).
Sorry, I missed the last sasquatch's comment.   I met some Shuswap Indians once who eagerly described their encounters with bigfoot.  I don't know if they were munching mongos.  My only experience of mongos came a few decades back in a field on the edge of some Mexican rainforest.  It's all a little hazy...
It was a reference to a DrumBeat LastSasquach did a few weeks back explaining the problem of energy infrastructure in a society, with a very simplistic example using a tribe of Sasquatches.  Light read, but it conveyed what you are seeing as Peak Oil symptoms.

Telumehtar,  yes, I think your exactly on point....that's one thing that mainsteam media ignores...If the oil industry is willing to go to these depths and spend this kind of money off shore, it means that, at least in North America, they must not be able to find large prospects of oil.

This is interesting in that (a) are we to assume that unprospected/undiscovered Canadian onshore oil is essentially finished, and (b) is unprospected/undiscovered oil is basically non-existant in Mexico.  That one is a mystery due to the government socialized nature of their industry.

So, even if lots of oil can be found this deep offshore, it will increase the expense and effort required per barrel.

One other side point:  If Chevron/Devon does not have inside and very reliable information to the contrary, they would have to be deeply concerned that the Arabs could open the floodgates and drive down the price, leaving their azz hanging out on return on investment, unless, the Arabs go ahead and keep production (both onbook, and the various off book transactions, spot deals, etc. that we know go on) hgih enough to keep the oil price low enough to make it very hard for oil companies to come out ahead on these deep offshore projects....
(and interestingly, the crude oil price has come down....at how low a price can Chevron and others come out ahead on these dieal?)

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

The dollar cost of deep-water GOM will be hidden for years with a subsidy granted by previous inexpensive petroleum. This is the case with tar-sands and even ethanol. Today's equipment was built when petroleum was $20/b.

We will really feel the pain when the next deep-water find must be produced with energy gleaned from, shale-oil, baked potatoes, and hemp seeds.

"This just gives us more time to act, if we can muster the political will to do so. "

On the scale required, I doubt it.

If the peak was today,  people will start preparing a week from now.

If peak is 2010 people will start preparing 2012.

ANY talk of "Buying Time"   will equate to the masses as

"XXX more minutes on the snooze alarm"  and fall back to sleep.

The inertia approaches infinity with 6 billion participants.

Again,  (For those Golding fans),  We are on the island with the lord of the flies.   Do you remember how many houses were built... That's where we're at.

They started three, 1st mostly complete, 2nd one 1/4,  3rd one not even started.

They already killed the "Mulberry scared boy", and Simon, Piggy will be next(watch out those of us who can "Think")...

Sorry, rambling there.    

I don't think a "Later" peak = more prep work accomplished.

I think it will be "More time on the Snooze alarm"

Boy am I ever starting to believe you! I have known about peak oil for 2 years and have seen virtually no progress made in addressing (much less acting on) earth's limited energy supply.

20 years ago energy-efficient refrigertors were introduced and today we have the Prius. Whoopdee doo! Where is a program to buy up necessary right of ways for light rail?  To install high-speed intercity bullet trains? What happened to the EV and why are we right this minute chewing up ag lands around our major cities?

I agree with other posters: this GOM find is a diversion. A media trick to sell advertising. Sounds like the much-hyped Kashagan find in 1998 that promised 200-300 bb and turned into 13. That was a disappointment by an order of magnitude. Is there any doubt this will be also?

What about those of us who have been trying to get people to think about unsustainable energy since 1973, pstarr? It's been like talking to a brick wall for 30 years.

I always have affection for the optimists because I see my younger self in them. I love their sense of hope.

But average humans will not change. They just won't. Been there, tried that ...

Could you explain this theory that the GOM find is a media trick to sell advertising? Are you suggesting that television stations dove under water and rigged the tests, or did they bribe Chevron?

Of course the discovery is blown out of proportion, but I think you are getting hysterical over another little bump in the road. Calm down and take a deep breathe. At this rate how are you ever going to handle lower oil prices?

Sometimes just being a little paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.
Could you explain this theory that the GOM find is a media trick to sell advertising?

You didn't miss this opportunity, did you?

A Faulty Proof Refutes His Whole Position

Should your opponent be in the right, but, luckily for your contention, choose a faulty proof, you can easily manage to refute it, and then claim that you have thus refuted his whole position. This is a trick which ought to be one of the first; it is, at bottom, an expedient by which an argumentum ad hominem is put forward as an argumentum ad rem. If no accurate proof occurs to him or to the bystanders, you have won the day. For example, if a man advances the ontological argument by way of proving God's existence, you can get the best of him, for the ontological argument may easily be refuted. This is the way in which bad advocates lose a good case, by trying to justify it by an authority which does not fit it, when no fitting one occurs to them.

Again, (For those Golding fans), We are on the island with the lord of the flies.

Then no worries, an "adult" will show up to save the day.  

Adults will show up...

I love Ed Anser's quote from a TV show.

Grownups are just kids that act like adults so the little ones don't get scared.

When I reached adulthood(by age),  I said, well the mystery is gone,  I know why things are all F#cked up now, The knuckle draggers that I went thru school with are going out and breeding and voting, and now are "Adults".

But these factors overlook the very important question: Even if Peak Oil is ultimately delayed for 5 or 10 years, is this a problem we want to leave for our children to deal with? Isn't it better that we start mitigation efforts right now, while we still have the petroleum in place to begin a transition to a less consumptive society?

Excellent point, and this is what we need to keep hammering away on. It's very poor stewardship and deeply immoral not to be transitioning to a less consumptive society, for at least two important reasons.

  1. Peak Oil - doing our very best to properly manage our resources so we don't leave our children in the lurch. Whether Peak Yesterday or Peak in 20 Years (Roger Conner), we must address the situation NOW.

  2. Global warming - doing our very best to reduce greenhouse gas accumulations (by burning less fossil fuels) so we leave our children with a habitable planet.
I agree with you, but at the same time, playing the devil's advocate (maybe not quite the right term), how many of the people here are doing anything about peak oil?  At some point government intervention is absolutely required to make a concentrated move towards alternatives.  

But rather than just sit back steweing about the fact that the government is not doing anything, how many here are actually doing something themselves?  I'm not talking about educating other people, although that is clearly noble and necessary, I am talking about actually taking tangible, physical steps to reduce one's own reliance on oil.  None of us can come close to solving the entire problem of peak oil on our own, but there are things each and every one of us can do to make a difference and be a part of the solution.  

There are too many here who have adopted a fatalistic attitude.  They go around pontificating at length about the inevitable "power down", "die off", and the ride back to "Olduvai gorge", and otherwise do jack to make a tangible difference.  Here's a little secret about fatalism: it's a cop out.  It's a lazy way of justifying not doing anything.  If you just assume everything will fail anyway, it's easy just to kick back and relax without feeling guilty about not actually doing anything to make a difference yourself.  

I am speaking to everyone who is here, reading this site, in saying that you have a special responsibility.  You have this responsibility because you are aware of the problem.  Just as if you come across someone bleeding in the street, it's your responsibility to call for help, not to walk on by and complain that others were unaware of his need for assistance.  

None of us can claim ignorance of what is going to happen.  So, it is our burden to not only advocate for change on a government and societal level, but also to make changes on a personal level.  And by that I mean doing whatever is within your power to move us toward a new energy paradigm.  Install solar panels or a windmill to generate power.  Consider converting your car to an EV.  Find ways to minimized your use of power around the house.  Walk or bike to work, or take public transportation.  Not everyone has the same means, but we all have some ability to make a difference, especially if we sacrifice (and how can we ask others to sacrifice if we are unwilling to do so ourselves?).  

I'm sure many here have already done what they can, but I would encourage those who haven't to try to do something, or many things, to make a tangible difference.  Any changes you make to save power, or generate power, or otherwise pollute and waste less, are infinitely more valuable than arguing about the end of the world as we know it, or the collapse of capitalism.  Let's stop imagining how the modern world will end, and instead start imagining how the world can continue on, albeit in a somewhat different form.  

You make the assumption that preserving the current economic system is a worthwhile project. Some of us here do not believe that is the case. So your belief leads you to the conclusion that you should "do something" like conserve, use alternative energy sources, etc. But if I don't want the current economic system to survive, my response will be quite different. It will include learning to live in a different kind of economy. That might convince you that I'm a doomer, when I consider myself optimistic that we'll get something better.

True, in my version there will be billions of deaths in the next few decades. But I also believe that will be true if your version of a transition to some alternative energy source happens.

While there are indeed some who seem to just be cheering on the "end of the world," I think it a mistake to assume that trying to "continue" is the best response to our circumstance. I think that by doing so you will cause a whole lot more pain, suffering and death than even those "olduvai" cheerers are contemplating.

I am promoting an overlooked option to reduce US oil use, and working to build more streetcars in New Orleans.  Personal consumption is air flights + 6 gallons/month.
If anything, the hype about the Gulf may actually hurt the situation by causing the price of crude oil to fall, which retards the ability of explorationists to look for the resource and encourages that consumer to buy the "Hummer of His Hearts Desire" instead of a vehical that actually has good gas economy. The deep Gulf is like ANWAR, any discovery made is about 10 years from the gas pump if things go well, and further out than that if they don't.