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237 comments on DrumBeat: September 12, 2006

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cynus on September 12, 2006 - 9:15am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Did I miss the explanation about why Stuart hasn't posted anything in ages?  I miss the updates to the plateau saga.
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The Interloafer on September 12, 2006 - 10:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Same.
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griztown on September 12, 2006 - 11:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Good question.
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Francois on September 12, 2006 - 11:52am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Leanan? What did you do with him?
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Leanan on September 12, 2006 - 11:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Don't ask me. I'm just a peon around here.  The Yankees don't bother to tell the ballboy what George Steinbrenner is doing.  ;-)

Someone said Stuart lives in Europe, and is probably taking a Europe-sized vacation.  

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kjmclark on September 12, 2006 - 12:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I thought he hinted once that he was in the SF Bay region.  I assumed he's just really busy doing real work, but maybe he's building a doomer fortress of solitude.
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kjmclark on September 12, 2006 - 12:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Although come to think of it, Stuart seemed much less doomer than many.
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Freddy Hutter on September 12, 2006 - 12:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, i'd luv to see the effect of new production records on his graphs.  2006Q1 set a new record of 85.17-mbd & the monthly record is now July 2006 with a revised IEA figure of 86.2-mbd.  This compares to 84.3 in July 2005.  The future is unfolding as it should... in line with almost all the Depletion models.
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expat on September 12, 2006 - 1:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Which model - the one that says if you have record prices over a 12 month period, you pump oil like crazy, until something pops - oops, a little leak here, don't worry about it, we only need to shut down half of the field, not the whole thing, or an over 10 billion barrel announced Mexican discovery which turns out to around 10 billion barrels less than announced?

Or the model which says that oil production, according to OPEC, is overwhelming demand, so no problems?

Or the model with the ever harder to grasp definition of what 'oil' is? It seems as if it can be burned, and it is liquid, it is in fashion as oil this year, even if 20 years ago, it was considered essentially worthless sludge maybe worth burning in a freighter, since you couldn't burn it legally on land.

Or the model which says since we didn't lose, oh, another million barrels a day of production in the GOM because hurricane season is only half over, everything is peachy? And next year? And the next? I don't know the future, but it is relatively safe to assume hurricanes will continue to appear regularly in the Gulf of Mexico.

One of the things I find fascinating is the difference between short and long term - how many oil formations are being plundered as compared to husbanded over time to make that growth show up? Decline rates remain one of the truly open parts of the peak oil debate, since they are truly rear view objects - but how a field is produced has major implications for its decline.

And yes, let's not talk about the increase in CO2 which that production increase represents - after all, climate change is likely as far away in the future as oil production peaking.

I bet you even will argue that falling oil prices will lead to a free market economy like America's increasing its investment in energy efficiency and conservation. Just like the models predict.

The future is unfolding as it should? We do have different opinions about the future, it seems.

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jkissing on September 13, 2006 - 1:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Stuart routinely presents both iea and eia. Interesting that you left out the eia estimate of 84.19 suppply for 2q, .5 lower than 2q05.  

EIA does show a higher demand, as opposed to supply. I would have thought that when demand is higher than supply, prices rise, which is in fact what happened in 2q, but maybe they mean something else.

For example, maybe higher demand is met by draining stocks... Much is made of the fact that US commercial stocks are higher than last year, mostly because 12mmb loaned from spr is not yet repaid, and won't be until after the election, if then. Meanwhile, per iea, OECD stocks are down 2% yoy, (1 day cover), or say 80mmb. And, although I can't provide a reference (from some link at tod), OECD stocks are apparently at a ten year low.

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Halfin on September 13, 2006 - 12:35am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I looked yesterday at the data sources Stuart uses for his charts. The IEA didn't have the next month yet, however I think it had revised the previous month upward. The EIA did have another month, and it was up a little, but (as has been common with them) the previous month had been revised down, and the net result was that the new month was roughly the same as the lsat graph Stuart made. Bottom line was a continuation of recent trends, EIA flat and IEA up.

Maybe when the IEA comes out with the new month, which I think should be this week, he'll make a new chart.

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237 comments on DrumBeat: September 12, 2006

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