Notice how the maximum formed by the tip of your red triangles are roughly occuring every 9-10 months. That would be, I believe, the top basis element.
Hey, I have no idea, man. I just run the numbers. All that technical stuff is supposed to be your bailiwick. SAT seems to know something about that, too. Stochastics, I think you call it.

I've got one more I'll throw in here at the end of the line. But after that I'm done.