Interesting conjecture. Propose on one hand that people will fight wars to avoid a power down, and on the other that an organized power down will prevent this. I think there's a logical problem here.

I know I'd rather fight than live in a cave with sticks and stones. To say nothing of the fact that such a lifestyle would require the death of about 99% of the current worldwide population. People wouldn't fight to prevent that? Keep dreaming.

I wouldn't fight, but that's because I'm pretty sure that their are acceptable alternatives to the extraction economy. Farm from living "in a cave with sticks and stones", a low-energy lifestyle can be quite comfortable and just as fulfilling as what the western world calls normal. I say this because I've been meeting/living with people that live low-energy lifestyles and adjusting my own based on my experiences. Honestly, it really isn't as bad as living "in a cave with sticks and stones".

Besides, fighting won't make the resources being fought for any more plentiful. Perhaps those left standing after such a fight would be in a better situation than if everyone just chose to power down in the first place, but that's definitely debatable, the odds of being left standing after such a conflict probably aren't all that favourable, and even after the conflict, they're still going to have to power down. So what's the point of fighting?

I guess here's the question.

  1. Why a power down at all? We have enough Uranium, we have enough sun, wind, whatever. What's the problem. I know you want a powerdown so badly, but just come out and say it, don't try to cloak it in some sort of shroud of inevetability.

  2. How low energy is this lifestyle you're talking of? How about we add up 6 billion people living this low energy lifestyle  and see where that gets us. Is this feasible? Surely this would take some source of fuel, where will it come from? Even a low energy future, unless you want to force 90% off the population into poverty, is going to be using more energy than we are using today.

Basically, either there are other sources out there (nuclear, or whatever) in which case we have all the energy we need, or there are not, in which case we're screwed.

I find it hard to believe that there is enough energy for everyone (6 billion people!) to live at 1/5 (or whatever) of our current US energy use, but no more, no less. Seems like an aweful slender needle to thread. Any explanation for this wonderous happenstance?