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80 comments on CERA and the Facts

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TechGuy on November 26, 2006 - 1:40pm

>The WSJ article, quoting an internal Pemex report, said that the remaining oil column was about 800' thick, and thinning at about 300' per year, which suggests a pretty steep decline rate. Of the five decline scenarios in the Pemex report, the worst case was for a 40% per annum decline rate.

The column may be declining at a high rate, but that does not necessary mean that production out is declining as rapidly. Since the column is shrinking fast I am inclined to believe that they haven't cut production significantly yet, although I have no what to confirm this. Its just a hunch. Of course this means much steeper declines in the near future.

>What is amazing to me is that so many people are so unconcerned about the fact that the best case for Ghawar is a one-third water cut--in a field that has already been redeveloped with horizontal wells.

I am not disagreeing with you and I do appreciate your input. I am just trying to provide you information and suggestion you might find useful.

Take Care.

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GreyZone on November 26, 2006 - 2:11pm

The month to month information about Mexico's production has been posted previously at TOD. I can't recall where right now but I've seen it. Cantarell is the backbone of that production. That production is declining amazingly fast if you begin tracking from last year to now. If overall production is declining, and Cantarell is the largest part of Mexico's production, then there is an extremely high probability that Cantarell itself is experiencing production declines. Otherwise we must argue that the remaining 45% or so of Mexico's fields are all bearing 100% of the declines when PEMEX itself already has admitted that Cantarell is in trouble.

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realist on November 26, 2006 - 2:32pm

Here is a repost from August

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realist on November 26, 2006 - 2:34pm

If forgot to mention that this is from a public PEMEX report. I find the exploration wedge an great example of "positive thinking"

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