<CERA and the FactsThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: November 27, 2006>

93 comments on Updating a couple of graphs or more

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expat on November 27, 2006 - 2:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Oh, no question about flying - I returned through the American/British security 'alert' - awful.

What is interesting is that instead of flying, Americans drive - since in America, with the semi-exception of the Northeast Corridor, it is either fly or drive. There is no other infrastructure, and quite honestly, I can't imagine it being constructed within the current framework of American culture (that which has existed since ca. 1950). A workable rail system requires things like cities with centers, and people who feel that the disadvantages of using rail are vastly outweighed by the disadvantages of having a car. With the very notable exception of NYC (and from reports read on the Internet, New Orleans), and the possible exception of a few older cities like Boston or SF, this does not describe America and the attitudes shared by most of its citizens.

This doesn't mean that in 20 years America won't be using rail - it does mean the odds are, the steel for the new system will come from a Russian company, Evraz (which intriguingly, will become the world's largest manufacturer of rail steel, with a primary market in Russia, and exports to Asia) after it takes over Oregon Steel.

I could find a lot of information in German, but the English information was fairly meager. And this is yet another indication of what I keep harping on - America is so absolutely fixed in how it views the world that the idea that a Russian company (or Canadian or German - you have to buy your locomotives and rail infrastructure from someone, after all - America certainly doesn't manufacture much of it anymore) will be profiting from any expansion of American railroads is pretty much ignored, while the importance of GM or Ford in producing SUVs (which have zero role in a world market) is considered paramount to America's future.

This time, the music is from Elvis -
'We're caught in a trap
I can't walk out
Because I love you too much baby

Why can't you see
What you're doing to me'

Well, maybe Elvis isn't the best fit, but still...

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geewiz on November 27, 2006 - 3:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
good try though!
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ThatsItImout on November 27, 2006 - 4:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

expat,

Good points all, as for the the choice of music, my pet in this area would probably closer to The Steve Miller Band
"Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you..."
(no reference to "you" present company, of course :-)

What is fascinating to me is how many folks will drive hundreds of miles to....get to ride a train!  The tourist draw of an old railroad is well known.
Here in my hometown, as late as the 1950's, you could take a train from the country into Louisville, and then to anwhere in the country.  That has since been lost, and the older folks pine for the easy and cheap transportation.
In the last few years, even the Greyhound buse lines have disappeared.  Now, If you want to get out of my hometown, you either walk or drive.

Can't we talk some of these billionaire "peakers" (Simmons, Rainwater or Pickens)  into some investment in rail?  Apparently, gas is going to have to get a good deal more expensive before it even looks profitable to the peak believers.

Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout

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PeakPlus on November 27, 2006 - 5:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
A good investment would be buying up Greyhound and making it work for everybody. Investing in Rail would take decades. Putting efficient busses on the road (vans?) would take days... If a somewhat improved bus system were in place once oil hits over $100, the idea could kick in real quick.

Saw a report once, where Cubans ride remodelled semis.. A bit third worldish, but hey, why not??

Does anyone know how many times Greyhound went bankrupt?

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elwoodelmore on November 27, 2006 - 8:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
i nominate robert plant  
 crazy on a ship of fools ...............
 turn this boat around..............
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JoulesBurn on November 27, 2006 - 10:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
That was Stealers Wheel, not Steve Miller.
His tune was The Joker.
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step back on November 27, 2006 - 6:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Sorry Roger.
John Kerry already reserved that Miller Song for his "Stuck in Iraq" (with you) line.

The Elvis song is a good one.
Just change "why can't you see.. " to "why can't I see what you're doing to me"

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biologist on November 27, 2006 - 1:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The statement that it is either fly or drive, or that Americans cannot reduce their gasoline consumption, is not true. If the gasoline prices were high enough, we/they could and would:

  • the whole nation has a well-developed intercity bus system. This has the additional advantage that the tickets are cheaper than train tickets (where trains exist) and that they sometimes go more direct (e.g. New York City directly to King of Prussia, PA instead of going through Philadelphia)

  • anybody is free to form car pools. Certain minorities already do (I heard about Hispanics). Four-person car pools would reduce commuting gasoline consumption by about two thirds (allowing for pick-up detours)

BTW, similar arguments can be made about the impact of oil shortages on home heating and airconditioning, and on food consumption - there is an enormous slack and waste in the American energy system that can absorb a great decline in demand. It would not be pretty though...
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vtpeaknik on November 27, 2006 - 1:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
the whole nation has a well-developed intercity bus system.

I don't think that's really true, but even if it were, the capacity of the existing system is miniscule.  If it can currently carry 1% of travelers, what would happen if 5% tried to use it?  25%?

Cheap van-based public transport could be set up quite quickly, technically speaking, but the current regulatory conditons prohibit that via multiple requirements that a cheap startup cannot meet.  E.g., insurance, commercial driver license, handicap access, exclusive licenses for access to passengers given to certain taxis in some areas, laws against multiple paying parties in same taxi-like vehicle, etc etc.  Perhaps when gasoline hits $8/gallon a blind eye will be turned on all that.

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DonRobbie on November 27, 2006 - 2:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The CDL requirement is only for vehicles over 15 passengers, which is the most that vans are set up for from the factory (GM and Ford 15 pax, Dodge and Freightliner 10 pax).
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Samsara on November 27, 2006 - 4:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
VTpeaknik

"...but the current regulatory conditons prohibit that "

You bring up a good point.

I predict you will see MANY MANY regulatory statutes removed or just ignored.  

The cost and weight of it will become unsustainable.

Regulatory Conditions are a luxury of a rich society that exists now, but that will not in 10-20 years from now.

Cars will look like 3rd world vehicles.  Broken Tail light?  You will be lucky if it has lights at all.

MANY MANY regulations I feel will be simply ignored.

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