The Oil Drum

The VMT haven't continue to climb since prices have tripled.  They've leveled off, and even declined (albeit extremely slightly - much less than 1% on a 12month average basis)

Ah, yes, but the low prices of the past got everyone hooked, and resulted in an infrastructure that requires the use of motorised transportation. Just like a drug dealer, now that the entire population and economy is addicted, the price can safely rise without fear of too much reduction in demand.  After all, what are you going to do once you have invested all of you savings into an exurban McMansion that you can no longer get rid of for love or money . . .

I agree. Debt is piling up for some.  The home equity rise spending spree is now dead.  IMHO we are just going to have to wait a little while longer...
I'm starting to think that a larger war in the ME is more likely to trigger a crisis.  Oil supply is just too tight and the whole world knows it, including the people that find GWB to be the threat.
What a mess

Also cheap chinese imports have allowed people to spend money that would have otherwise went to pay higher american wages.  I think this is so overlooked.
16 years ago I bought a 800 watt microwave for $118.00.  4 years ago I bought another one for $29.95.
$29.95- builds it, ships it across the ocean, puts it on a truck, delivers it to the store, puts it on the shelf, pays the wages of the people who work there, thier light bill, heat bill, property taxes etc.,  How much did the people who built the damn thing get ($.75 HR?).
We can afford higher fuel prices in relation to wages because of this. For how long...?

It takes time for people to buy new cars. Any reasonable oil price doesn't cause people to junk their cars for new ones, it just causes them to consider it more carefully next time they buy a car. If the average car is on the streets 5 years, then you'd expect this whole cycle to flip over in about 5 years, but wait, it's worse than that. First there has to be demand (a year of high gas prices, with no end in sight convinces consumers that they need a more efficient car), then there needs to be redesign, and retooling, and if things keep up, in 3-4 years, new efficient cars are being produced in large numbers. So, all told, I think it takes around 10 years, give or take, and the price has to stay consistently high for all or most of that time. If that were to happen, then VMT would start to fall and efficiency would start to rapidly climb.

Also, GM and Ford would start to rapidly enter chapter 11, as their executives are hell bent on producing gas guzzlers even if it kills them, which it of course has indeed been doing.