The Oil Drum

74 comments on DrumBeat: December 30, 2006

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odograph on December 30, 2006 - 9:51am

Aren't you asking a question about buyer psychology? The VMT drop, and rebound, were based on perceptions of price, future price, US economic position, US strategic position, etc.

We'd need surveys to know what people could say about their motivations at the time, and if you don't trust people to understand their motivations even that won't help ;-)

What I personally remember was a price and scarcity (closed stations, even/odd days) [driven] change in mass psychology. Something we've only seen briefly (post-hurricanes, etc.) since then.

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Substrate on December 30, 2006 - 10:28am

Aren't you asking a question about buyer psychology?

Yes and No. Essentially what I'm trying to figure out is: If the price of gas had multiplied, but supply remained ample...would there have been any appreciable change in VMT during those times. To make that speculation I'd like to know what amount of change actual scarcity had on the times because without fuel, VMT necessarily drops whether anyone would have bought fuel regardless of price or not.

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odograph on December 30, 2006 - 10:56am

Like Joule I remember "experienced" scarcity, with longer waits at gas stations. My fuzzy memory that it was only bad on a few of the days, with the family sending me the kid to wait in line. I'm sure you've also heard that there was a temptation to "keep the car full." Some have suggested later that the even/odd days made this effect worse.

I really don't know how to answer your question beyond that. If you want to ask me anything else about my 30 year old memories, shoot ...

(BTW, I cleared my cache/cookies in FireFox 2.0 and noticed a strange effect. I see fewer posts at TOD until I log in again.)

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DelusionaL on December 30, 2006 - 12:50pm

I worked at a gas station at the time of the first crisis. I remember the odd/even and closed sunday controls. I remember the line extending around the block. The station eventually put a $10.00 limit to "play fair" and avoid hording.

I remember cancelling long trips where the chance of getting stuck without gas were avoided. Gas was expensive at R.56/P.64 a gallon. Minimum wage was 1.65

The prices of large 4x4 pu's dropped dramatically in the 2nd crisis. The combination of high fuel and high interest on car loans. Truck prices recovered when gas prices dropped.