The Oil Drum

The net increase in Angola's oil production as measured in barrels per day from this month — January of 2007 — forward until January of 2010, will exceed the net increases of both Russia and Saudi Arabia — each taken separately — in that 3-year period over their 2006 averages as compiled in the BP data when all is said & done.

The most recent EIA crude + condensate numbers (average 2005; average 2006 through October 2006, mbpd):

Saudi Arabia: 9.6; 9.2

Russia: 9.0; 9.2

Angola: 1.3; 1.4

From peak to most recently monthly number, Saudi production is down--as the HL model predicted--"voluntarily" by 800,000 bpd.

Russia's post-50% of Qt cumulative production, through 2004, was 95% of what the HL model predicted it would be. Based on the HL model, we should be seeing a production decline in 2007.

My prediction: we will will continue to see Saudi production declines in 2007, and Russsia will join Saudi Arabia in showing lower production. Both countries are already reporting--as I predicted in January, 2006--lower net oil exports.