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About China: Chris Skrebowski and the ASPO is saying that China will probably peak in 2005-2006.
Russia production growth rate has slow down by almost 50% since mid-2004:
SA is really the big unknown and the interpretation of the recent drop in production is controversial:
Another country that may enter the "Big 9" is Iraq if the situation can get stable one day.
The weight of the "Rest of the world" is becoming increasingly heavy:
Hi everybody and happy new year
following my guest post hosted by Khebab, I showed that EIA predictions started dropping in August, 05. It seems interesting thus to compare the current EIA figures for 2006 with those in July 05 STO report :
2006 predictions... July 2005 /Dec 2006
US 9.0 ; 8.4;
Canada 3.2; 3.3;
Mexico 3.8 ; 3.7
North Sea 5.1; 4.7
other OECD 1.5;1.5
Total OECD 22.6; 21.7
OPEC 35.4;33.9
FSU 12.3;12
China 3.7;3.8
Other non OECD 13.1;13.3
Total world 87;84.7
Clearly, the failure to produce as much as was expected one year ago comes mainly from OPEC (most probably KSA, but I don't have the details of STO computations) , North sea, US and FSU. Mexico is still close to the roadmap, but for how long?
Do you know what Hubbert Linearization tells us about China's peak?
China's HL plot based on data since 1949 points to about 72 GB URR, so 2006 production brought it to about 48% Qt. It will pass 50% Qt sometime late this year or early next year. The prediction of 2005-06 was probably only slightly premature. 2006 production (with data through November) is likely to reach 184 million tonnes (3.68 mmbd), up 1.6%, and next year is likely to be only a bit higher. Daqing's decline is now accelerating, from 2.5% to 3.5% a year, even with recent efforts to increase recovery. It is, however, only 25% of Chinese production now, down from 40% in 1990.
Thank you for this.
Well, three things come to mind. First of all the title would be better called "Peak Oil Delayed." Salvation means saved and our goose is still cooked (absent mitigation and preparation) whether the peak would have happened in 2000, today or in 2012.
Second, we ought to be out thank our Russian and Saudi suppliers for really stepping up the last few years. We couldnt have done it (business as usual) without you guys! Keep up the good work (if you still physically can) and nevermind what our politicians and econonomic talking heads say about your regimes and (national) oil companies. You keep suburbia humming!
Third, what about Iraq? Yes, I know its a tattered mess but the oil ain't goin' anywhere. Isn't that country the only one left on earth that can truly boost its production levels (again disregarding the civil war--err, sectarian conflict) to fill the void caused by depletion and our tapped out Russian and Saudi friends?
What did you think America invaded Iraq to spread democracy ?
If anything confirms peak oil its the obvious decision to not only invade Iraq but the fact that our elected leaders regardless of party are willing to stay.
Historians will not realize that at the time the majority of the world did not get it.