The Oil Drum

China's HL plot based on data since 1949 points to about 72 GB URR, so 2006 production brought it to about 48% Qt. It will pass 50% Qt sometime late this year or early next year. The prediction of 2005-06 was probably only slightly premature. 2006 production (with data through November) is likely to reach 184 million tonnes (3.68 mmbd), up 1.6%, and next year is likely to be only a bit higher. Daqing's decline is now accelerating, from 2.5% to 3.5% a year, even with recent efforts to increase recovery. It is, however, only 25% of Chinese production now, down from 40% in 1990.