179 comments on And how is Saudi Arabia getting on? (or more evidence of a deteriorating situation...)
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
The contents below are paid advertisements. Their appearance does not imply an endorsement by The Oil Drum.
“So one may almost say that the theory of universal suffrage assumes that the Average Citizen is an active, instructed, intelligent ruler of his country. The facts contradict this assumption.”
—James Bryce (1909, 35)
Search The Oil Drum with Google
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Prof. Goose, Heading Out, Stuart Staniford, Nate Hagens
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Gail the Actuary, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Khebab, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Local: Glenn
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Technician: Super G
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Local
- Summer Streets a Success!
- Plan for Hydro-Fracture Drilling for Unconventional Natural Gas in Upstate New York
- Enjoying Life Close to Home: Fun Streets
TOD:Europe
- Russia: There Is Life After Peak Oil
- Should EROEI be the most important criterion our society uses to decide how it meets its energy needs?
- Oilwatch Monthly - August 2008
TOD:Canada
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
- Oil Megaproject Update (July 2008)
- Weekend Energy Listening: Wind Power with Paul Gipe
TOD:ANZ
Peak Oil Primers
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- Ecological Economics
- David Strahan
- Econbrowser
- The Energy Blog
- Entropy Production
- Environmental Economics
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- jeffvail.net
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Organizations
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
I am predicting a long term net decline rate of about 4% per year for KSA, perhaps more sharply at first if Ghawar is crashing.
Hi WT/Jeffrey,
And an export decline rate of...?
The decline in net exports from 12/05 to 12/06 will be, IMO, at least 13%, perhaps as high as 15% (in one year).
westexas,
In regards to declining exports brought about by rising internal consumption, what are your thoughts on the possible chaotic influences brought about by those decreasing exports and actual geological peak? That is, as exports decline and more is consumed internally, the producing nation generates less revenue such that its citizens are less wealthy, thereby softening demand. Past peak, those nations are going to want to keep their citizens happy, thereby given them first rights to the oil and perhaps causing a rapid drop in exports - again less revenue generated by the producing nation and softening internal demand. This drop in wealth may also push those producing nations into modes of internal conservation to protect their exports, and bring their revenue back. Do you see these scenarios as a valid reasons why declining net exports may not wind up particularly dramatic?
Substrate,
I cannot speak for Westexas, but I do see one huge questionable premise in your question:
Just because the quantity of oil that an oil-exporting country exports is declining does NOT mean that the revenue from these exports declines.
For example, exports decline thirty percent in volume while oil prices double: Result, declining volume of oil exports combined with great increase in export revenue.
Because oil is highly price inelastic (especially in the short run) such a scenario of declining volumes with increasing revenues is highly plausible.
And there is another problem with Substrate's reasoning. Lost revenue from exports due to rising internal consumption does not necessarily mean less wealth. It depends on how the oil is used.
I don't hold out much hope that many, or any, of the principal exporters of oil will find productive domestic employment for the source of work they currently export in massive quantities, but it remains possible that they will do so.
I've noticed that the EIA has made three different forecasts for SA Productive Capacity (PC) according to three prices scenarios (data here):
The high price scenario is actually forecasting a much lower productive capacity. I don't know the exact reason but it's probably lower demand.
Just because the quantity of oil that an oil-exporting country exports is declining does NOT mean that the revenue from these exports declines.
shhhhh!!...you weren't supposed to notice that. If the price of oil got high enough though, it'd probably dampen/destruct the economies in the importing countries bringing the price back down again. Also inflation throughout the world might render the new money less valuable.