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200 comments on DrumBeat: January 4, 2007

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Hothgor on January 4, 2007 - 9:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Oh good god man, your buying into the MSM spin on this one. Oh noez, our sales were up only 2.3% this year, some pencil pushing number crunching junkie on the 5th floor said it should have been 2.5%, were doooooomed. You didn't even read the part where retailers only post numbers on items sold during the holidays, and ignore gift cards until they are redeemed. As more people buy gift cards, sales are going to continue to 'disapoint', as you cant have growth in both markets at the same time.

And as for the jobless claims, I'm actually amused at how you chose to spin it. Any time the numbers come out better then expected, you dismiss it as unsustainable, but a 10,000 jump is herald as the beginning of the end. Get real man, a 10,000 increase means nothing, considering how volatile the job data is every week.

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Hellasious on January 4, 2007 - 10:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Of course it is not doom. But it IS a slowdown, particularly when you dig in a bit deeper and discover that there was very substantial discounting going on to reach even the 2.5% increase, which will be reflected as much lower profit margins. Gift cards....hmmm that one is a double edged sword, don't you see it? It's another form of cash: people use them as they see fit and abstain from "double-buying". Example: someone gives you a sweater that you didn't need, so you toss it in the closet and eventually you buy that trinket you really desired, yourself. Result: double sale. But if you get "cash" you go out and exchange it for the trinket. Result: single sale. That is why retailers are not super-thrilled with gift cards...Net-net it was a flat Xmas and even Bush knew it during his press conference ("...I encourage you to go out and shop some more..").

Jobless claims..10.000 is noise.

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BrianT on January 4, 2007 - 10:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hoth: These are nominal dollar amounts. With money supply growth estimated from 4-11%, these are actual retail sales declines.

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tate423 on January 4, 2007 - 10:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Last I saw, M3 reconstructed (nov06) is at 11%.

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GreyZone on January 4, 2007 - 1:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The government CPI data through November shows a 2.6% inflation rate for 2006. We can argue whether that is understated versus reconstructed M3 or not but even taking this extremely low inflation number we see that inflation exceeded increases in sales, hence the disappointment - the year was a net loser for merchants.

Since you conveniently "forgot" to factor in CPI, you get to trumpet an apparent growth rate. In reality the data taken as a whole indicates a flat economy, or one even potentially contracting slightly. Once again, we catch Hothgor massaging the data to his own ends.

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dbarberic on January 4, 2007 - 2:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The Economist's All Items index as of the December 2nd issue had risen 35.4% y/y. As of the week of 12/22, the same index is showing at 34.8% y/y. The food index was 27.2% on 12/2, and 25.4% the week of 12/22.

Now tell me there is low inflation.

The CPI is garbage with its hedonic adjustments, substitutions, and core rate crap.

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tate423 on January 4, 2007 - 2:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Which brings us to the Austrian (and correct IMHO) definition of inflation as an increase in the money supply, ie credit. Its truly that simple.

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Hellasious on January 4, 2007 - 3:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

...in which case the inflation rate for the US in the 12mo. period ended Sep.30 2006 was exactly 10% - that is how much total credit (debt) increased, as per the Fed.

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solar1 on January 4, 2007 - 9:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hothgor, no one is buying into anything. Two articles were posted for us to review. That was all. Stop with the rants, we don't need them.

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Freddy Hutter on January 5, 2007 - 3:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, we all know why she posted these two economic articles of the 50 released today. The others didn't fit the doomer agenda. Here is proof of the 2007 Recession for the idiots that didn't click the link...

And (real) inflation adjusted sales:

And for the idiots that tried to discuss inflation ... forgeddaboutit ... not worth the effort.

And for those who know nothing about money supply:

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Peaknik on January 5, 2007 - 4:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think you should refrain of calling people names, Freddy. It makes you a uninteresting troll.

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