The Oil Drum

52 comments on New Iraqi oil law: some facts on PSAs

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Dave Cohen on January 8, 2007 - 11:48am

I see you did mention the phrase "civil war". I just want to emphasize it:

Civil War

Who among us can say where Iraq will be 30 years from now? This is old stuff -- The Origins of the Sunni/Shia split in Islam

Ali is the central figure at the origin of the Shia/Sunni split which occurred in the decades immediately following the death of the Prophet in 632. Sunnis regard Ali as the fourth and last of the "rightly guided caliphs" (successors to Mohammed as leader of the Muslims) following on from Abu Bakr 632-634, Umar 634-644 and Uthman 644-656. Shias feel that Ali should have been the first caliph and that the caliphate should pass down only to direct descendants of Mohammed via Ali and Fatima, They often refer to themselves as ahl al bayt or "people of the house" [of the prophet].

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neon9 on January 8, 2007 - 12:02pm

I agree-as the article stated, these agreements are unlikely to amount to anything until the small issue of the civil war is taken care of.

At this point if a major oil company moved in under these terms they would be a very appealing target.

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DelusionaL on January 9, 2007 - 10:16am

does it cross anyones mind that the civil war (provoked?) is "eliminating the opposition" with fewer causualties to occuping troops. Once the fighting population has been reduced we can then "instill order" and go about our merry way of taking the oil.

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Kevembuangga on January 9, 2007 - 2:55pm

does it cross anyones mind ...

Yes, this is about the same that what I suggested earlier,
the only problem is that even with a reduced fighting population "instilling order" isn't likely to be very successful.
Thus taking the oil will happen along the fighting and from Cornucopia latest post this is what seems to be planned.

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Buckler on January 10, 2007 - 4:02pm

Exactly, they have been fighting for more than 1000 years. According to the book the "The Turks Today" the Ottomon Empire had tremendous problems with Arab tribes in modern day Iraq -- in one example, Istambul sent representatives to REFUND Arabic tribes taxes for their benefit, but the Turkish representatives were killed and tortured "in the customary way." Istambul ruled Baghdad from a distance. Based on history it isn't reasonable to think things will quiet down in Iraq any time soon.