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I am in general agreement with your list - particularly that economic factors will be the first manifestation of trouble. I fully expect energy prices to fall with demand, although geopolitical risks could add significant price volatility or outright supply disruptions that could interfere with that assessment. I agree that lower prices won't mean greater affordablity though, as purchasing power would be falling even faster. Personally, I think demand could fall so far that Canada might even make it's Kyoto target inadvertently, although by 2012 I think we'll be worrying about short-term rather than longer-term issues.
I can't see exploration and production, particularly capital-intensive production, being maintained at anything like their current rate during a Depression. IMO it's unlikely the money would be available and price volatility would make it almost impossible to plan long-term commercial projects. I would expect much more of the energy business to end up in public hands as projects become more difficult to finance in a liquidity-challenged world.
Thanks for the input. I will integrate your comments into a more detailed version of this. There are another seven or eight points that deal with what I consider the less certain future beyond what we have looked at. I want to do a lot more thinking about all that before I cast it out for some comment and input. I conceive of all this as my creating a statement of my view of the future to give to my family and friends. I have added the following preamble to the thing.
Crisis years – the immediate future
The following represents the thoughts of Don Hayward regarding what should be expected and prepared for in the immediate (2007 and on) future and extending through my lifetime of about twenty more years. This effort has come from me trying to decide what I believe myself and what I should be telling my family and friends. This is subject to on going revision. It is also based upon the hope (perhaps vain)that the first real downturn does not occur before retirement in 2011.