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39 comments on The Evolving situation between Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan

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GreyZone on January 9, 2007 - 3:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Belarus is in the wrong here, clearly, and Europe is just collateral damage. Europe should be pressuring Belarus to play nice, not Russia. Europe could also enter into talks with Russia about building common infrastructure to bypass problematic states and guarantee Russian distribution in the future. That would be a win-win for Europe and Russia. But no, we get the Europeans posturing and playing at morality again.

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LevinK on January 9, 2007 - 5:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I absolutely agree. But the russians are also to blame, because they did not give a timely notice to their partners. Even at the price of some delay and more losses from pipedraining, this is what they should have done before shutting it down. This is not the way to keep good relations with your customers and prove yourself as reliable supplier.

The case with Ukraine was slightly different, because then the Russians tried to reduce the supplies to Ukraine only, but the Ukranians continued to drain, what they considered "theirs" and hence the shortages at the other end of the pipe. But it was basically the same unilateral thing, again. In both cases I don't think it was on purpose, I rather see it as a typical socialist style negligence.

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alan on January 9, 2007 - 9:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I have a hard time feeling sympathetic toward the Russian's clams.

Russia only pays Turkmenistan $65 per tcm for its NG and sells it to Europe for over $200 per tcm. Turkmenistan doesn't like it but has to live with it because it is currently the only way they can export NG.

Now the Russians are objecting because Belarus is retaliating for a unilateral increase in prices by doing to them what Russia is doing to Turkmenistan.

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LevinK on January 9, 2007 - 10:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nobody forces or blackmails Turkmenistan to sell its NG. If they invest in pipelenes as GasProm did they can get the price they want. In contrast forcing your supplier to pay unprecedented charges by stealing his produce and sabotaging his relationship with his partners is an outright blackmail IMO.

There is also another thing you are missing. Gazprom exports to Europe for ~$230/tcm, but 3/4 of its production is sold internally in Russia for ~45$/tcm. Thus the average price it earns is ~$91/tcm and it can be argued that it charges only $26/tcm for Turkmenistan using its infrastructure.

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dissident on January 9, 2007 - 11:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Russia pays Turkmenistan $100 per tcm and not $65. Turkmenistan is in the process of bringing its prices closer to market levels.

http://www2.pravda.com.ua/en/news/2006/9/6/6301.htm

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39 comments on The Evolving situation between Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan

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