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81 comments on Refining 101: The Assay Essay

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memmel on January 16, 2007 - 7:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

As coking becomes more common expect significant price increases in asphalt and heavy oils. This is one reason I'm so keen to get good numbers on these markets. They I think represent the move to coking heavy sour oils as light sweet declines. So I think they are the most sensitive barometer of the oil supply.

In the future this means ships may end up paying close to diesel prices for fuel oil or just burn diesel or convert to coke or cokes slurries.

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Robert Rapier on January 16, 2007 - 7:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

As coking becomes more common expect significant price increases in asphalt and heavy oils.

It's already starting to happen. I knew that asphalt prices have been increasing, but I ran across a graph while I was working on this article that shows that prices have really skyrocketed. You can see a graph of the increase here:

http://www.techtransfer.berkeley.edu/newsletter/05-4/highprice.php

Now, the bulk of that rise goes along with the price of oil, but as oil prices go higher refiners will feed more asphalt to cokers when they can, causing an asphalt shortfall. This trend will get worse going forward, but at some point asphalt prices may be high enough to cause some refiners to reconsider installing that coker they have been thinking about. But we have a ways to go before that happens. Economics still strongly favor installing heavy oil processing facilities.

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mkonings on January 17, 2007 - 2:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You can get an asphalt price index at this link.

http://www.acaf.org/asphalt_price_index.htm

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memmel on January 17, 2007 - 3:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Holy cow 1.35 a gallon for asphalt ?
From about .60 in 2002.

Also it seems that Asphalt prices trended upwards leading oil prices.
I mean that asphalt prices seems to have started going up back in 2002.

The recent correction seems larger for asphalt but I think this is the combination of the season oil prices and looming recession.

Asphalt prices look like a pretty good merged economic/oil price indicator.

Right now they say demand is dropping faster than per bbl prices signaling recession.

Thanks for the link !

This is great.

Now do you have one for the supply at these prices ?

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