175 comments on Is the World's Biggest Machine Breaking Down?
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175 comments on Is the World's Biggest Machine Breaking Down?
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yet many people i talk to think it's so important that the grid gets a 'get out of reality free' card and will stay around no matter what. they think the same way about the internet when in reality both systems are precariously set on the edge of a knife and even the slightest breeze can wreck havoc.
i also likes how he points out the obvious logic that no matter how you name it, going back to localized generation is a collapse because the result is less complex and less available as a whole then what it was.
the only problem i have with jason is his love of neo tribalism and neo-shamanism, and his un-dying belief that people will automatically go back to it. (see http://anthropik.com/2006/11/christmas-eve-2050/ )
when in reality we will hit every branch on the way down that we touched(and maybe a few we did not) on our way up trying to use each as a way to stop what is beyond our control. only many generations and 100's of years later to end up in a form of tribalism if anyone survives.
A grid is a "maintain or die" system for an industrialized society, it is as important for the running of our culture as clean water is for human survival.
But that only mean that you must maintain it, its not physically impossible, you only have to work! That the worlds largest economy should be unable to do that is a crazy thought.
but it's not needed and just because it's important does not mean it gets said card.
you missed the point of the whole article and that is that we have passed the point of diminishing returns in running our grid where massive amounts of work and resources are needed only for a minuscule amount of gain. in such a situation a tree branch knocking out a power-line would as pointed out not just take power out on that street but the failure will cascade through the system.
I think I understand the point of the article and it is stupid.
Its like watching a caravan of cars loaded a kg from having their springs bottom out and conclude "one bump or disturbance and all cars will be destroyed, it is INEVITABLE". Build more cars and distribute the load, duh.
The problem is not foremost in the number of cars, but who will drive them, where and when do they take lunch, who tells them where to drive, who repairs, who decides, etc. etc. The problem is that so much effort is required to control and maintain the system, that it becomes less and less able to fulfill its original purpose. Much like ballooning civil administration, or commercial management remuneration.
Maintaining the grid is indeed possible. They just need to reassess their priorities, though, since it does require more resources than it used to.
This is not wrong, of course - which is why we are suffering such horrible problems from the lack of stables in cities, as supporting the huge number of horses as common in 1880 just got too complex - who (edit) would mow the hay, clean the manure, etc.
Sure, this is not a real example - but changing the way something is done is not evidence that proves only 'inferior' alternatives of reduced complexity are possible.
It just may be that priorities have changed, or a particular technology or custom has changed.
It is certainly true to recognize that increasing complexity has its own limit - but then, so what? Unless you implicitly believe that how we live right now is the only 'correct' way to live.
Again, this is not to dismiss facts behind this discussion, but the framework which often grows from it.
If, as in your reply, you focus on cars, and I say why use cars, would the ensuing discussion be enlightening or frustrating? Why are so many of the people who point out collapse as an unavoidable fate so unwilling to see that adaptability is also a social response, and one which is applied in any number of situations. Whenever diesel engines fade into the past, and for whatever reason, most people in Germany will not mourn for stinking, loud motors no longer being around. They may mourn what the motors provided, unless alternatives are used - including living in a way which does not require diesel motors. This life could be worse, could be better - welcome to the real world.
This is not collapse, I would argue.
It's an interesting example, the horses. Around 1900, the car was hailed as the solution for the gridlock in the cities caused by horses and carriages. Cars only take half as much space, so now that problem is solved once and for all!
Legislation is similar. Most nations start out with a fairly basic, fairly simple set of rules. Every time there is a (real or perceived) problem, rules are added. At a certain point, the amount of rules becomes too much to enforce, or even understand with all their interactions. That point is the point of diminishing returns on complexity. So far Godesky's argument (familiar from Tainter). But he's not only smart, he's also religious, and really wants/believes an apocalypse as redemption/salvation/punishment. That is where I disagree.
As for Germany: I live close enough, and I grew up seeing 80-year olds quietly peddling into the fields, balancing a weeding tool over their shoulder.
I have the impression that rather much of the sentiment on peak oil and the future in the US goes towards either extreme: death or glory. Maybe because there is little US history without oil. Maybe because shows and make-belief seem to hold a special place in the US, judging by the popular culture that filters through to the other side of the pond.
Everything will be alright. There are many ways from now to the future. The American Way, however, is special - but everyone knows that. ;)
Also intriguing is the current experiment in European (more Dutch) traffic planning - removing all the signs, markings, etc as a way to reduce accidents. In a sense, this 'simplicity' seems to cause everyone participating in traffic to pay more attention to what is going on around them, and react appropriately to other people and vehicles - obviously, something not really imaginable in the America I visited last summer.
Complexity is one answer to a problem, but it is rarely the only one. That complexity tends to have a lot of support from those involved in creating/maintaining that complexity is another question. Including the idea, certainly not espoused by all people who believe in complexity leading to collapse, that complexity is equal to 'progress,' and thus automatically good.
Yes, that is the key cultural change that will need to happen: wanting enough instead of wanting more.
Electricity grids simply follow Ohms Law, which could be translated into: you get whatever amount of copper you pay for. There is nothing inherently limited about the grid in the US except for the piss-poor maintenance it gets. Grid owners do not like to invest in upgrades because they are expensive and, if unused, are losing money. There are valid environmental concerns about yet another forest of power lines, therefor projects that are needed do get delayed. The solutions are out there: one can put the grid underground for approx. ten times the cost of high voltage lines on towers. The other part of the solution is simply to pay a few cents more per kWh for a more stable grid. It's not a big deal, really... just buy yourself a few computer games less and you are guaranteed the electricity it takes to play them.
Only if you do Ohm's Law in complex arithmetic, where Z = R + jωL - 1/(jωC).
We'd be better off going with superconductors.
The grid can handle a lot more energy than it does; the problem is that it's sized for a peak which is reached for only part of the day. Instead of spending more per kWh, we should spread our consumption around the clock and get more out of each dollar of equipment. We might even be able to spend less, when all the savings are added up!
I am a physicist who does the job of a EE and has to deal with RF circuits all the time. Of course Ohm's law involves complex numbers for me. It can't be any other way. Ohm's law does not require the impedance to be real. It only requires the relationship between voltage and current to be linear. Which, by the way, it is not due to self heating of wires. But by the time you get to the point where that matters, your wires are usually damaged beyond repair. So I did not talk about it. :-)
Superconductors require power for cooling and lots of it. I have a whole book with a government report on the use of high Tc suprconductors for energy transmission and storage purposes. As far as I remember the technology of the early 1990s was nowhere near the engineering requirements for succesful superconducting transmission lines and generators etc.. I could be wrong but I don't think superconductors are quite there yet. In the future, maybe, for now... don't think so. Superconductors, IMHO, are just another one of those "magical" solutions to the public which are suposed to make the pain of having to pay for proper engineering solutions to go away.
As far as losses are concerned, the premier ways to minimize losses are to raise the voltage and generate locally. PV is a great way to cut I2R losses in summer when there is peak demand due to AC. We have close to 10% losses in the current system, most of which must be due to peak loads (that is simply plysics). If we can reduce peak loads, these losses will go down dramatically. That they exist in the first place is also good indicator that utilities have not kept their grids well maintaned. Which would be a political problem (due to deregulation, I suppose). It is not a technical problem, for sure.
Old houses, by the way can add 5% losses due to their wiring alone. Running loads on 120V is another one of those nonsensical US standards. It won't save your butt when the hair dryer falls into the bath tub but it will cost you four times the amount of copper compared to Europe's 240V standard to transmit the same power with the same losses.
"The grid can handle a lot more energy than it does; the problem is that it's sized for a peak which is reached for only part of the day."
True but currently local energy storage is by far less efficient than energy transmission. There is little to gain there with current technologies. Your assumption that the capital cost of the grid is a major cost driver for energy prices is also wrong. Operating the grid costs a couple of cents a kWh if its done right. If you doubled it in size, it would still be a lot less than the cost of environmentally friendly and sustainable energy sources. But I suppose that selling more energy while overloading the net beyond safe engineering limits is more lucrative to operators than helping customers to conserve and upgrade the net to be rock solid. Again, the solution to that requires social engineering, not EE. Copper, transformers, towers you can simply buy. These are catalog items. The will to invest, is not.
Not true in general. Consider:
Peaks and slumps are both problematic for the grid; peaks stress equipment and shorten its life (as well as creating the conditions for cascading failures), while slumps leave the investment not paying what it's worth. Levelling the load is good for both of those things, and a grid with a 30% margin day and night is better than a grid with a 5% margin during peak hours and 60% at 3 AM.
A "get out of reality free" card. I love it!
I thought the article was pretty dumb. It makes the same mistake of equating physical power, in this case electricity instead of oil, with economic and political power. Maybe the author has a good grasp of how the electrical grid works, but he obviously has no grasp of how the rest of the world works. California imports a lot of power from out of state, and yet in terms of economic and political power the state wields a lot more than Nevada or Arizona. This directly demonstrates the utter falsehood of the BS spouted in the article to support collapse.
The author also doesn't take into account that much of installed PV would be distributed and not add any transmission to the grid, rather it would reduce it. Once again the idea that just because electrical power generation is distributed therefore political and economic power must also be distributed is just crap. I generate my own power, but unfortunately I'm still a part of the United States and its economy. At times I really wish I wasn't, but not having to buy electrical power from the local utility does very little to increase my independence.
Thanks - I too wondered why the author saw everything through a highly centralized lens.
And when you start using clever tautologies like 'Of course, this does little to avert collapse, since this small-scale, localized approach is a collapse from the greater complexity of the international North American power grid.', then I think the author has a particular viewpoint from which he will not be moved.
I do think that both Magnus's point - it is just a matter of doing the necessary work - and the fact that 'industrial' society is not the same as a 'technological' society leads to a certain confusion. Classic industrial processes, like metal working, from smelting on, requires immense amounts of energy which is unlikely to be generated through a decentralized solar/wind based system. However, living comfortably does not require this level of energy intensity (do you really need a new car every 5 years? do you really need a car?) - and quite honestly, the amount of energy required to create and run a rail network covering an entire nation requires roughly the energy requirements and technological skills of ca 1900 - before there was a grid, by the way.
Truly, not having air conditioning in the summer in North America will pretty much resemble the entire time I was in school, in Fairfax County - we only had one day off for heat, since the rules were 100° before noon.
This is not to dispute the central role of electricity in modern societies, but the 'grid' is only part of it - the part which allows for convenience to become confused with necessity.
'Photovoltaics and other renewable energy sources may play a role in the future, but they will not save civilization, for the simple fact that these energy sources are only viable on a local scale.' I still don't know what 'civilization' he is referring to - unless he means how Americans live today is the very definition of civilization, and any variance from it is a sign of collapse. I would call changing it an 'improvement,' but as in the past, we will just have to agree to disagree - as I recall, he has no experience of other countries (could be a faulty memory, and is not a personal disparagement in this case).
Jason Godesky is a fast-crash doomer (cannibalistic hordes and all), and looking forward to it. His viewpoint on civilization (defined as coercive centralization) is too all-or-nothing. As Leanan said, we will hit all branches we used to climb up while falling down. After all, as contact between regions diminishes and central control weakens, all these regions will have to go their own way and try their own ideas; compare the different coping styles of Cuba and North Korea. The capitalist world will end, but it will not vanish, it will not explode, it will crumble bit by bit.
Godesky is an ideologue, a true believer. He really can't see anything which calls his ideology into question or, heaven forbid, contradicts it. As others have said below, he is arguing from wish-fulfillment rather than reasoning from facts and projecting possibilities.
I'd be more than happy to give him and his band of followers what they want, on an island or some disintegrating society somewhere. Maybe buy them machetes and loincloths and one-way tickets to Zimbabwe?
By his definition, a conversion of transport from internal combustion engine cars to fuel-cell cars would be "collapse" because fuel cells are much simpler. Converting from 2000 ft² homes cooled with electric A/C to 4000 ft² homes cooled with solar absorption A/C would be "collapse" because the system complexity would go down. A shift from feeding 6 billion so-so on grain, root and fruit crops and mammalian food animals to feeding 9 billion well on algae-fed fish and shrimp grown on a far smaller area would be "collapse" because the long-distance flows of foodstuffs wouldn't be necessary. Our consumption and well-being can go up during a "collapse". If that's collapse, I'm all for it.
He says my blog "usually misses the big picture". I think he lacks a grasp of irony.
when in reality we will hit every branch on the way down that we touched
How could that be possible? History is never so perfectly mirrored. More importantly, the resources that made those previous eras possible no longer exist. Most of the "branches" in question were fundamentally provided by agriculture, for instance. Our Green Revolution began not as a fluke, but because we had finally consumed all arable land on the planet, and had turned much of it to desert. Without fertilizers, very little of the world can still be farmed, even without climate change. I'm afraid that while this scenario has that scent of common-sense truth, I simply cannot figure out any way in which it could possibly be supported once we get down to the details.
only many generations and 100's of years later to end up in a form of tribalism if anyone survives.
I believe that the map will open up first in those areas where it most recently closed. There are even now areas where tribalism is possible--even in fairly surprising locales. This will only increase as civilization contracts in fits and starts. Sure, in 50 years, you'll undoubtedly be able to find functioning cities. But you'll also be able to find new tribes forming, not out of ideology, but because it's the only way of life that fundamentally works. Even in New Orleans after Katrina, people began forming tribes almost immediately. In any crisis, humans instinctively form tribal structures. I think it's evident that we can expect more, not less, of this as the alternative breaks down.