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DrumBeat: January 14, 2007
Posted by threadbot on January 14, 2007 - 10:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Ethanol means money for farmers, but hunger for many poor people
America's appetite for fuel ethanol could take food away from some of the world's poorest people.The price of corn and other crops is soaring because of the demand for grain to make ethanol, a gasoline additive, and that means the government's budget won't buy as much food as it used to. The price of corn alone, a key food in Africa, has more than doubled in the past year.
Oil and gas: Planning for a decline
Experts agree a finite amount of natural gas and oil exists in underground formations, but say little else about the topic is crystal clear. They say many different factors will determine when and how the resources will dwindle.
Why gasoline follows oil up but not down
The short answer: Service stations do it because they can. But the really big bucks are being made elsewhere.
The problem for OPEC, however, is that most OPEC members will cheat. Will Saudi Arabia be willing to cut enough to make up for their cheating partners? So far, they have. But it looks like they will have to make further deep cuts in production, to 8 million barrels a day, which is below levels not seen since 1991 or the aftermath of 9/11 in 2001.
Lukoil Profit Advances 10% on Output Increase
OAO Lukoil, Russia's biggest oil producer, reported a 10 percent increase in third-quarter profit as the company raised output through acquisitions in Kazakhstan and exploration ventures in Egypt.
My concern is that oil and gasoline prices will drop so low that any progress toward oil independence or conservation will evaporate quicker than a gallon of gasoline in a stock car running at full speed.
Another issue that has exacerbated things in the sector is the power theft. It is found that for every 100 units, only about 60 are paid for by the customers. The rest is lost in transit, of which half is related to pure power theft. Due to this, the transmission and the distribution companies are saddled with immense losses though power generation companies remain unimpacted.
Iranian President Visits Venezuela to Strengthen Ties
It is Mr. Ahmadinejad’s second visit to Venezuela in the past five months, and the two leaders were scheduled to talk about strengthening their economic ties. From here, the Iranian president is to visit Ecuador and Nicaragua, where leftist presidents aligned with Mr. Chávez are taking office this month.
The no-power-in-the-dark problem is something the solar revolutionaries often neglect to mention. A completely sun-powered world would only be possible in a parallel universe whose inhabitants go to bed very early.
Bush set for climate change U-turn
George Bush is preparing to make a historic shift in his position on global warming when he makes his State of the Union speech later this month, say senior Downing Street officials.
UK: Tory wants domestic flights to be taxed out of existence
Flights within the UK should be taxed almost out of existence, a leading Tory MP said today.Tim Yeo, who chairs the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, said he wanted to see "virtually no" domestic flights taking off within a decade.
Nuclear power faces reduced share in global energy supply
Nuclear power’s share of global power supply is likely to shrink over the next few decades as political indecision and public opposition stunt its growth....The IAEA expects nuclear power to produce 12%-13% of global electricity by 2030, down from the current 16%, while the International Energy Agency forecasts 10%-14%. But Rogner said that long construction times, planning obstacles, a lack of trained nuclear engineers and lingering public fear all hindered the progress of nuclear energy.
Iran says no decision yet on OPEC meeting
A senior Iranian oil official said on Sunday OPEC had still not decided on whether to hold an emergency meeting soon to discuss a 15 percent drop in crude prices since the start of the year, a ministry Web site said.
Chavez OKs private firms in oil projects
President Hugo Chavez said Saturday his government will allow private companies to own minority stakes in lucrative Orinoco River basin oil projects that Venezuela plans to nationalize.
US House Energy Bill Aims to Press Companies on Drilling Fees
Oil and natural gas companies would fall under serious pressure to rework flawed Gulf of Mexico drilling leases if an energy bill crafted by U.S. House Democratic leaders is approved next week.
Off-Hill Analysis Gives House Energy Bill 'Good Odds' of Passing Senate
"Sources around Washington expect the House to pass this easily and, indeed, give it very good odds in the Senate. It also looks as if it would be rather unlikely that the Bush administration would veto it," the analysis says.
Russia wants control of its oil exports after halt
Russia must find means under its own control to deliver oil exports after its reputation was damaged by a halt in pipeline supplies to Europe during a dispute with Belarus, the economy minister said on Saturday.
BP's Problems Cost CEO His Job
Two years ago, John Browne -- also known as Lord Browne of Madingley -- was the toast of the corporate world and had entered popular culture for making BP stand not only for an oil company but also for a firm looking "beyond petroleum."Since then, Browne's reputation has been tarnished by a series of debacles -- a refinery explosion in Texas that killed 15 people, leaky Alaska pipelines that shut down the biggest U.S. oil field, costly delays in a big Gulf of Mexico production platform and U.S. government accusations of cornering the propane market and manipulating gasoline futures contracts.
Just to note that I've been having problems accessing the comments section and going "back" to comments after I've gone to a link. Just in case you don't know.
That never worked for me, even before the software change. I use Firefox and "open in new tab."
When a click the POST COMMENT thing, it can take up to a minute. If I press ESC and retry the post, it ends up posting twice. Any advice?
Don't retry. At least, not without checking to see if your message posted first.
SuperG is aware of the problem, and is working on it. Apparently, the problem is the blogads. I probably shouldn't say this, but given the problems you are having, I would try Ad-Blocking the ads.
I use Firefox and what b3NDZ... describes always worked for me. The new system is slower and clunkier from my perspective.
For me it works but just very very slowly
The worst part is if you wish to look for new posts in another drumbeat say, then you have to do a manual eyeball scan and scroll all the way to the bottom. This takes an enormous amount of time. Just to do a catchup with newer posts. Of if you wish to see any replies to your comment ,,,again a very long slow eyeball scan. Takes forever and your eyes get glazed over after a bit.
This is a huge problem IMO.
Overall the app on the server seems to be slow as well. Like a lot of code is running at a low priority on the server or just pumping a heck of a lot of routines. Maybe bloated code. Not to disparage it but you do have a severe performance problem from what I see.
Could be my slow dialup but I don't think thats it. You can tell when you go to a website where there is a server overload, memory leak or code execution is just very slow due to many variables. But looking back at the previous application. This seems very slow.
airdale
airdale
Just type to bring up your Find box. Type [n and "bracket n" will find all the "new" posts. U can go backwards too.
After a Reply u must do the Find again in the confirmation page to see the new posts since u opened the last browser or tab. Inconvenient but much faster than scanning...
It is always best to Reply in a new tab or browser or u will lose the "old" news.
Yep - hit Apple-F for Find, the Find box comes up, put in your search string. Apple-G for 2nd, 3rd, etc instances of the string.... You can't grep dead trees....*
Old unix saying.
Works on my Firefox only after I option it on. It was set false as downloaded and installed so I had to config it on.
Helps some but still a PITA. No summary,not dating,etc.
4:23 am 15 January 2007 .... for airdale's post.
To find all post's made on the 15th you search for "15 Jan".
To find all post's made in the AM of the 15th you search for:
"am 15".
If the clock is put into reverse notation as well, i.e. :23 of 4am, then you could even search for all stories posted in a given hour of a given day: Find "4am 15 Jan".
See ISO-8601
Re nimbyism and slow uptake of nuclear in the West. This is going to hit the middle classes like a lump of 2X4. For the moment the Anglosphere can't think any further ahead than what the Beckhams are up to. Meanwhile China is tying up deals for uranium and other resources. More importantly they have the jump on the reactor building program AND are going into renewables. One day the West will suddenly notice it has been left behind.
I'm with yo 100%. I live in the u.k (Scottish) and am quite frankly embarressed about which issues our media chooses to focus on. The amount of Wind farms that have been rejected at various planning stages because of NIMBYism and twitchers is horrifying. "It [new wind farm] will kill 1 lessrer spotter mergander a year". Who will really be twitching once climate change sets in and we lose many species of bird? (REF: TWITCHER - UK colloquial for birdwatcher). The London estuary windfarm which could provide enough electriciy for 1/5th of Londons' population is again stuck due to some protest. Ironically Londons biggest long term worry in terms of global warming is it's Thames barrier flood defence.
Marco.
Well, at some point, everyone is a NIMBY. Do you want an industrial pig farm adjoining your back yard? Or a brothel in the flat next to you?
True, some people do carry it to extremes.
I can tell you that we were all glad when the Trojan nuclear plant was dismantled up river from us -- and we aren't happy about all the decommissioned reactors that go even further up river to Hanford -- which as we speak, is leaking radioactive crap into the ground water in the plateau above the Columbia River.
Governments and commerce will never be able to please everbody and I'm afraid that this is an issue where the mass must benefit. The number of people protesting here in the U.K rural areas where all of the proposed wind farms will go is relatively small. We are talking very sparsely populated area.
So you ask yourself the question: do you forgo the benfit to tens and hundreds of thousands of people because less than a hudred people can see the turbine or are dangerously close to a reactor?
The answer is no. You have to benifit the many at the expense of the few. Tough. Politics has been like this for thousands of years.
To address your first question - well, we live in a capitalist democratic society where we our only interested in out own advancement - it's every man for himself. Yes we are all NIMBY's but if it's not happening to me, I don't give a S**T. Move house. We have a choice.
Marco.
The answer to your rhetorical question is "YES".
No rational person will give up what his his for the "benefit of the many". That notion died with Communism. There may be some sort of free market exchange. But to forcibly take from the few to "benefit" the many is coercion. It is fascist, and un-American
I luv listening to americans that knock communism while their agriculture system and its subsidies have been the WTO's greatest battle for a generation.
The socialists reign. And btw real farmers live in Brazil ... not on subsidies: http://trendlines.ca/#Brazil
I'm not a farmer.
I live on subsidized, taxpayer coerced medical insurance money. Not my choice.
You're right. America is a socialist paradise. For the corporate socialists, that is. Used to be, that was called "facism."
Main beneficiaries? Halliburton, ConAgra, Raytheon -- so many more.
Are you aware of the Eminent Domain issue that has been quietly simmering in the USA the last few years?
The crux of the issue is that the Supreme Court has upheld the right of local governments to condemn and sieze private property not only for public good, but for PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT. The tenuous argument is that higher-end development will suck more tax dollars into city hall than modest 45 year old homes, and therefore it is "public good".
The whole concept utterly sucks, and of course this is another issue that the NSM does its best to keep off the radar screen.
Looks like they will also have all the cash, all the industrial capacity, and a giant pool of slave labor.
Future looks bright if you are upper class Chinese.
Except, what are they going to breathe?
Morpheus: "You think that's air you're breathing?"
Neo: !
As some of you may recall, last Fall we disconnected the gas service, turned off the gas-fired water heater and installed a PowerStar (Bosch) A115 electric point-of-use unit. The A115 and A125 are advertised as whole house water heaters.
I installed the unit about 12 feet from the kitchen sink and 8 feet from the bathroom, and insulated all the piping runs. I had hoped to eventually warm the input water on the roof.
The unit works - to a point. We had plenty of scalding hot water at the flow rate of the shower or any sink spigot, but there is more of a delay because the intervening pipes are not constantly filled with hot water. Also, we found that the flow rate of filling the tub was too high for the A115; the tub water never got hot unless we choked back the flow.
Now that Central PA temperatures have finally dropped into the 20s overnight, my wife reports that the shower is not nearly as hot as it was before (I'm generally in Baltimore). Clearly the colder input water makes for colder output, and we used to get temperatures in the teens for most of the winter months.
As it turns out, we're moving out of the house anyway, but otherwise, we'd have to rethink the system for winter performance. If I was staying, I'd probably put a small electric tank heater below the bathroom just to keep the hot water pipes warmer. I could turn off the tank heater in warm weather, and eventually replace it with solar heating.
Thanks for the testimonial. It is so hard to know if a your efforts will work out as planned. I receintly installed between the floorjoist insulation. Code said that perimeter(sp?) insulation of the footing was all that was required. This helped alot with cold floors.
One other thing that could have been done is to put in recirculation loops to keep the pipes warm. It's fairly common now because many people want instant hot water out of the taps. The pumps are small and with good insulation the heat loss wouldn't be too bad.
I considered an on-demand propane water heater (Aquastar) some years ago when I was replacing our 40 gallon electric one. I opted to stay with electric for a couple of reasons: First, I can run the electric one off the PV system albeit using a cycling timer (right now it's 12 seconds on and 14 seconds off) so I didn't suck the batteries dry. This was important to me from a survival point of view since I can make juice but not propane (although I did consider using woodgas as a back-up).
Second, the store told me that they came on via pressure drop. Since we often just want a little dribble of hot water, I was concerned that it wouldn't work well for us. It was too much money to gamble.
Todd
Nice to hear your experience, Todd. I went with the Aquastar 125 ng version in two different houses and I am satisfied. It saved a tremendous amount over an electric tanked water heater and saved a good bit over ng tanked heater. On the downside, the 125 is really a single use-at-a-time water heater. Technically it supplies enough hot water for two simultaneous applications, but adjusting the temp. drop, especially if the two apps. are widely seperated, is just not workable. Shouts of "I'M IN THE SHOWER" occasionally echo from the back bathroom. As money allows, we are going to switch to solar evac. tube pre-heat (100 gallons) and a TK-2 instantaneous main heater...this should address our needs.
Bryant,
The Aquastar 125 was what I was looking at. I also have a solar preheater system of my own design. It's a very low profile semi-concentrator. This feeds a 30 gallon storage tank. In the summer, it usually heats the water in the storage tank to 135-150 degrees. In the winter the water is preheated via a heat exchanger in our wood heater.
It's intereting but I considered installing a vacuum tube collector system. However, I wanted to build it myself. The plan was to use polycarbonate pipe since I could handle it with regular tools. After a lot of searching, I just couldn't find appropriate pipe. I wasn't worried about the vacuum part of the installation since I have a vacuum pump. I first saw vacuum collector systems in the late 70's. Incidentally, I read a report last year that indicated that vacuum systems were not as efficient as flat plat systems if frost is prevalent since they take more time to "defrost." I don't remember the reference but I seem to remember it came out of Sweden.
Todd
I am also interested in a solar system with evac. tubes.
Myh problem is that I want to oversize the system so that I can also use it for space heat by adding a hot water coil to the furnace. That part of the design seems to be pretty manageable. The big problem I am running into is the control system. I can't do everything with differential temp. pump controllers. I'm sure that if there was a shop that did solar systems in my area, they would have plenty of sources for control systems. Sadly, I can's seem to locate one. There is however, a manufacturer of the evac tubes nearby.
Good luck with your project.
Pickyreader,
I've been into solar stuff for a long, long time so my suggested reading might be out of date. But you might want to check out:
New Inventions in Low-cost Solar Heating by William Surcliff, ISBN 0-931790-02-6
A Design and Construction Handbook for Energy-Saving Houses by Alex Wade, ISBN 0-87857-275-0
Solar Houses by Louis Gropp ISBN 0-394-73543-3
I also have a book entitled but I can't find it. It used vacuum collectors IIRC but I don't remember whether they were for water or heating or both.
Then there is The Passive Solar Energy Book by Edward Mazria, ISBN 0-87857-238-4. I don't think there is anything about tubes but it still has good information.
A really technical book is Applications of Solar Energy for Heating and Cooling of Buildings. No ISBN. Published by the American Society of Heatng, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc. (1977). It's shown as ASHRAE GRP 170.
Todd
Edit to eliminate a few of the obvious spelling mistakes.
My wife and I happy to choke back the flow on our tub because we're saving a ton of money on our propane bill. And since we're in California where they mandate low-flow shower heads, the shower-flow temperature drop hasn't been an issue. It doesn't get as cold here in No. California as it does in Pennsylvania, but we do experience many nights in the 20s.
I recommend tankless heaters -- especially gas or LPG -- as a matter of thrift.
I have had a 100 amp "whole house" water heater for the last five years and here are some of my observations:
1. READ THE INSTRUCTIONS. It says to turn on the hot side of the shower ALL of the way on. Once the temperature has stabilized, if it is too hot add COLD water
to get the proper temperature. If it is not
hot enough, reduce the HOT flow slightly till it is hot enough.
2. There is no such thing as a "whole house" on demand water heater. All of these
units are strictly one spigot at a time units. If you want multiple use, get more units and put them at each point of use. If you only have one unit as I do, before showering it is a necessity to notify everyone in the house to not turn on the damn hot water while you are in the shower.
3. They will save a lot of money. My unit cost $650 and paid for itself in two years.
The widely predicted impact of increased ethanol production is, sadly, already being felt, with a vengeance. The article above plus the incredible 400% increase in tortilla prices in Mexico is adding more credence to the argument that, as Pimental said years ago, the production of corn ethanol is immoral, and if not immoral, economically devastating to the poor, for now.
When will increasing corn prices start hitting America's middle class? Until that happens, people will be glad to continue the illusion of easy motoring as long as it doesn't affect them too much directly.
Are we going to have to consume our entire corn supply in pursuit of a paltry contribution to the country's fuel supply before the American people wake up this madness? And what of the crops taken out of production to increase the corn supply?
As a vegan, I might be tempted to say that this is mainly just tough titty for the carnivores, but I fear that my precious unsubsidized fresh veggies and soybeans will be supplanted by just more heavily subsidized corn. And why not? Any rational farmer will go where the money is.
But this is all just transitional. Right? The miracle of cellulose is just around the corner. Well, good luck affording food during the transition. After all this is just a problem for Mexico and other poorer parts of the world. And as we know, heh heh, what happens in Mexico has no impact on us.
First we destroyed Mexico's corn farmers with our subisidized GM corn making the people of Mexico dependent upon us. Then we took away their food so we could drive our gas guzzlers. Seems fair.
Better build that wall. Fast.
What politician will wake up to speak out against this madness?
I ran across this article last night from Michael Pollan:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/1031/p17s01-lihc.html
He was arguing these points in 2002:
Of course one could argue that ethanol is a better home for the corn sweetners than high fructose corn syrup, but that misses the point that we shouldn't be encouraging so much of this monoculture in the first place.
On how the subsidies have distorted ag economics:
Yet for so many who depend on this subsidy and continual ethanol production in order to make money, speaking out against this practice (to them) means we must have some ulterior motive. The proponents like to overlook issues like soil depletion, herbicide and pesticide runoff (which is high), and for them there is no food versus fuel issue. It is all imaginary. But it is becoming more difficult to keep that charade going.
Robert, I take it by these remarks that you haven't pointed your prodigious reading ability in the direction of The Omnivore's Dilemma, wherein Pollan expands on these points, and more about what and how we eat, in a most interesting fashion. Highly recommend.
I am aware of the book, and it has been recommended. I just haven't run across it anywhere. I also saw him on Jon Stewart (or Colbert, I forget) last year discussing the same issues. I am putting together a list of recommendations based on suggestions people have made here. I need to add that one to my list.
I watched the Iowa Public TV show Market to Market this weekend and it was all about these issues and corn prices. The phrase "outa control" was used repeatedly. I'd highly recommend looking at the transcript for anyone interested in this issue. But here are some excerpts:
This is my point about moving to the "endpoints" on the fossil fuel continuum, i.e., using natural gas for GTL projects and coal for CTL projects.
Both fossil fuel sources are already being used for heat and/or electricity generation, much the same way that corn is now used as both a food source and an energy source (whether it's net energy is a different story).
And of course, up in Canada, industrial users of natural gas are deeply unhappy about the amount of natural gas that is being used in the tar sands operations.
What we are seeing emerge is that BTU's/Calories (measuring the same thing of course), whether in terms of energy or food, are emerging as the true capital.
Or to put it another way, what do we as a country, and each of us individually, have to offer the fuel and food producers in exchange for fuel and food?
Remember a billionaire named Rainwater who is expanding his ability to grow his own food?
I posted the same link yesterday and got very little reaction. I'm glad to see someone interested. What I'm hoping is that lots of the factory hogs farms will shut down and go out of business if corn goes to $5.00 and stays there. They are building them left and right around my place here in northern Iowa. I now have eight of the buggers within about a 3 mile radius (two more being built last year). The owners completely ignore the protests about the stench. On some warm summer nights I have to close the windows to stand it. The state prohibits the local authorities from regulating hog factories in Iowa. And the owners, who are generally wealthy farmers in my area, have an in you face attitude. They could care less if they make my life miserable. And I couldn't care less if they go out of business, as I hope they do. I would rather have ethanol to put in my gas tank than pork with the stench involved.
I would like to see hog farming go back to the old way where hogs were used to clean the fields after harvest and kept on pasture land.
That would require the price of hogs to rise dramatically, so it won't happen. IMO what should happen is that the corn acreage should go up with cattle production being shifted to poorer land. Corn use for human food is one of the plagues of the USA. I'm diabetic. When I go to the grocery store it seems like 95% of the stuff is just variations on the theme of fancy packaging containing starch and sugar. High fructose corn syrup is especially bad. Those worrying about food prices ignore the health price that I and many others pay for cheap attractive food. For diabetics like me, sugar and starch are like a narcotic that maims and kills in the end. I would love to see these products go up 2, 3,4 times or more. Then I would be less tempted to buy them.
Sorry, missed your post yesterday. OK, so hog, chicken and beef farmers go out of business, except for grass-fed beef and bison, and we turn the 20 million hay acres into corn crops, plus all the CRP land, and corn is still $5-6/bush to fill our SUV's, then what? Raise the ethanol subsidy from 51 cents to a dollar?