The Oil Drum

HO,

I think creating a virtual book to summarize the extensive valuable knowledge from TOD is a great idea!

Here is a link to a thesis done on Peak Oil which has chapter headings which might be of interest to you.

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~odland/Odland_PeakOilMgt_Dissertation.pdf

The title and chapter headings are below just in case the link doesn't work.

STRATEGIC CHOICES
FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION
FROM PEAK OIL
TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY
BY
SARAH K. ODLAND
JUNE 2006
ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF
BUSINESS AND ACCOUNTING, MERCY COLLEGE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MAY 2006

INTRODUCTION
ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM 1

PART I
THE BIG ROLLOVER: ONSET OF A PETROLEUM DEMAND GAP
AND SWITCH TO A SELLERS’ MARKET

CHAPTER 1
WHAT”S OIL EVER DONE FOR YOU?
(AND WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF IT STOPPED DOING IT?) 5
Oil: Cheap Energy on Demand - Oil is Not Just a Commodity - Heavy Users - Projected
Demand Growth for Liquid Petroleum - Price Elasticity of Oil Demand - Energy and
Economic Growth - The Dependence of Productivity Growth on Expanding Energy Supplies -
Economic Implications of a Reduced Oil Supply Rate

CHAPTER 2
REALITY CHECK: TAKING INVENTORY OF PETROLEUM SUPPLY 17
The Geologic Production of Petroleum - Where the Oil Is and Where It Goes -
Diminishing Marginal Returns of Production - Hubbert’s Peak: World Oil Production
Peaking and Decline - Counting Oil Inventory: What’s in the World Warehouse? - Oil
Resources versus Accessible Reserves - Three Camps: The Peak Oilers, Official
Agencies, Technology Optimists - Liars’ Poker: Got Oil? - Geopolitical Realities of
the Distribution of Remaining World Oil - Is There a Rate Limit to Production? - The
Growing Gap: So Much Depletion, So Few New Megafields - Production and Delivery
Constraints

CHAPTER 3
WE’LL JUST DO SOMETHING ELSE! CAN SUBSTITUTES OR
TECHNOLOGY FILL THE LIQUID PETROLEUM GAP? 39
The Fossil Fuel Options - Oil Sands - Oil Shale - Natural Gas - Methane Hydrates -
Coal-to-Liquid (CTL) - The So-Called Renewable Fuel Options - Biomass (Corn
Ethanol, Cellulosic Ethanol, Biodiesel) - Hydrogen - Energy Return on Energy
Invested (EROEI) - Technology to the Rescue? - Enhanced Oil Exploration and
Recovery - Diminishing Returns to Technological Innovation - Conservation and
Efficiencies - A Question of Risk Management

PART II
OIL TRANSITION ENDGAME:
GAMBLING FOR OUR ENERGY FUTURE

CHAPTER 4
TRANSITION TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY:
DEFINING THE GAME 54
Identifying the “States of Nature” - Probability of Occurrence - The Players: Oil
Haves, Heavy Users and Have-Nots - The Stakes: A Matrix of Plausible Outcomes -
Chaotic/Collapse Outcomes - Semi-Chaotic to Quasi-Managed Outcomes - Highly
Managed Transition Outcomes - Preferred Outcomes - Asymmetric Risks - The Goal
- The Rules

CHAPTER 5
A PALETTE OF STRATEGIC ACTIONS 62
The Free Market Tactic (Business as Usual - No Action Alternative) - Tactic M-1: Let
Market Pricing Equilibrate Demand with Supply - Downside Risks of Market (Non-
)Action - Government Strategic Actions (Public and International Policy Tactics) -
Tactic G-1: Governments Secure the Oil - Tactic G-2: Market Interventions - Tactic G-
3: Government Spending on R&D and Infrastructure - Tactic G-4: Energy Policy -
Downside Risks of Government Actions - Private Sector Strategic Actions (Individual
and Business Tactics) - Tactic P-1: Protect against Short-Term Price and Supply Shock
- Tactic P-2: Shift Priorities Towards Long-Term Sustainability - Downside Risks of
Private Sector Actions - Collective Strategic Actions – Tactics for Societal Groups -
Tactic S-1 Change Values and Reinforce Behaviors through Group Norms - Tactic S-
2: Leverage Pooled Resources - Downside Risks of Collective Actions

CHAPTER 6
STRATEGIC CHOICES – SOCIETAL PRIORITIES 78
Four Possible Approaches to Transition to the Reduced Petroleum Economy - 1) “The
American Way of Life is Not Negotiable”: Hanging on to Lifestyle - 2) To the Victors
Go the Spoils: Privatization of the World’s Energy - 3) What Color Is Your Parachute?
Full-Scale Preparation Effort - 4) Small is Beautiful: Power Down to Sustainable
Communities - Speculated Playouts under the Four Approaches - Selecting the
Preferred Strategy - Uncertainty Risk - A Question of Societal Values -
Environmental Welfare: Green Concerns versus the Economy

CHAPTER 7
FAILURE ANALYSIS: WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG? 89
Barriers to Investment in Increased Oil Production and Alternative Energy - Return on
Investment - Cost of Entry - Uncertainties and Financial Risk - Short Investment
Horizon - Behavioral Hurdles - Acknowledging the Elephant: Aligning Perception
with Reality - Recalibrating Expectations in the Persistence of Belief - Gaming the
System - Culture of Immediate Gratification - The Value of System Shock in Change
Management

CHAPTER 8
CONCLUSION: LEMMINGS-IN-THE-KNOW 95

BIBLIOGRAPHY 97
APPENDIX A 105
The World’s Giant Oil Fields (Matthew Simmons, 2002)
APPENDIX B 114
Oil and Gas Megaprojects 2006 Update (Chris Skrebowski, Petroleum Review –
April, 2006)
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 119