112 comments on Revenge of the Shia?
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I have previously expressed the opinion that if what is going on in the Middle East does not scare the crap out of you, you are not paying close enough attention.
The New York Times described the "best case" in Iraq as something akin to the Spanish Civil War, with the worst case more akin to a world war. I wonder if the Sunni attack on the most sacred Shia shrine might be analogous to the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand? (I have often wondered if the attack on the shrine was actually orchestrated by Iran.)
President Disaster's actions only make any sense if one believes his strategy is divide and conquer. His goal is to keep the Sunni vs. Shia thing going so that al Qaeda is preoccupied fighting Shia thereby diverting resources from attacks on the West. It also makes SA and the other gulf states dependant on U.S. military protection, giving us influence over the disposition of their oil. This strategy, although I think it will be another disaster like 911 and New Orleans, might be thought of as the Revenge of the Americans. My philosophy is if you see a cow pie don't step in it, but others will disagree.
Have to disagree here, President Disaster didn't have a clear plan at all and this is blowback. He's destroyed Iraq, destabilized Pakistan, may well draw KSA into Iraq, and handed the whip to Iran. The gulf is already dependent on the US military, and I doubt al Qaeda are preoccupied fighting the Shia. They're focused on secular Sunni, we did a nice job for them taking out Iraq, and Pervez Musharraf is walking a knife edge. This may all blow up into Shia vs Sunni, but I'm very skeptical that that was Bush's plan -- if only because widespread sectarian war would make the cost of doing oil business in the ME and the price of gas back home prohibitive.
Perhaps the 'death squad' approach was not planned at the outset. But after the initial failure of the occupation, it became Plan B. The so-called 'Salvador option for Iraq' was explicitly announced almost two years ago, in Newsweek magazine, by John "death squad" Negroponte, who helped to engineer similar US-supported death squads in Central America the 1980's. Now perhaps we are getting ready for Plan C.
The war in Iraq can now only be won by those who are willing to be the most ruthless and inflict the most terror on the people. Is the US military willing to take on this role? If not, get out.
Al Qaeda attack on the West will kill maybe a few hundred of us per hit. As long as the IT people have got good back up plans, this will mean very little. An effective attack on some critical target in the Middle East could mean world economic disaster. George Bush should either reinstated the draft and send a hundred thousand troops there or get out and ensure the US gets cured of the oil addiction.
Here is something to keep in mind about the situation in the Middle East (from: http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/sns_military.pdf)
"The Middle East and North Africa are a long-term demographic nightmare. The US Census Bureau estimates that the Middle East is a region where the population will nearly double between now and 2030. The total population of the Gulf has grown from 30 million in 1950 to 39 million in 1960, 52 million in 1970, 74 million in 1980, 109 million in 1990, and 139 million in 2000. Conservative projections put it at 172 million in 2010, 211 million in 2020, 249 million in 2030, 287 million in 2040, and 321 million in 2050."
According to the EIA, the one year increase in Saudi petroleum consumption from 2004 to 2005 was 360,000 bpd (Total liquids, from 1.64 mbpd to 2.0 mbpd)--a 22% year over year increase. And the average Saudi family has something like six or seven kids.
KSA population is forecast to grow by 40%. The state is responsible for providing housing, food, jobs, etc.
WT: Trivia: KSA uses 74% as much oil as India (whose economy is 10.5X larger).
Actually something that the Iranians are doing right is maintaining a very low Total Fertility Rate (1.8 for 2006). They do have a fairly young population, however, which means the actual population won't level off very soon. I suspect that the small family size was 'in the works' already, but the mullahs have helped it along by encouraging people to have fewer children, unlike other areas of the ME.
"the mullahs have helped it along by encouraging people to have fewer children"
Ahmadinejad urges Iranians to have more kids
(Oct 22, 2006)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10663272/
Ahmadinejad urges Iranian baby boom to challenge west
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,1929364,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=1
Every government in Europe is 'encouraging' mothers to have more kids and will give them anything (but enough money or tax credits) to do so. Is Iran's birth rate per mother over or under the replacement rate of 2.1%?
I know that it is difficult for a lot of people to understand this. However, the people running Iran really take their religion seriously and simply don't think the way you seem to.
But the Sunni sect would attack the most sacred Shia mosque?
So, it's okay for one Moslem sect to attack another Moslem sect, but Iran would not orchestrate an attack that would serve its national interest of getting the US out of the Middle East?
Iran's basic interest is stability, same as for most nations. Putting a fist in the tar baby is not their interest. Finding Iran's hand in anything that makes Emperor Bush unhappy is silliness.
The mosque contains the crypts of two of the 12 sacred Imams. For a Shia to destroy this particular mosque would be very improbable. It would be like a Catholic blowing up the Vatican.
westtexas. I really trying hard not to get dragged into this - I speak Arabic and Farsi.
Essentially, you can look at the Shia as being Catholics and the Sunnis as Protestants. The Shia draw beautiful pictures of their most revered saints as you can see by doing a search for Ali bin abi Taleb. The Sunnis do not - because the 10 Commandments forbids it according to their interpretation. There are a lot of other differences of course - mostly tribal/national/racial. I hardly need remind you of the slaughter between Catholics and Protestant during a long period of European history.
Whereas in the USA it is not beyond the realm of the possible that 9/11 was orchestrated by Cheney and friends, and, whereas it is not beyond the realm of the possible that Putin and friends blew up some apartment blocks so as to get elected, similar behaviour is extremely unlikely in the guys running Iran. They are simply not wired up that way. A big part of the problem the USA has in Iraq has to do with imagining that the people there are like the folk back home - they are not. They are very religious/superstitious and anyway even making a suggestion like your would lead to ostracism.
In fact, a lot of people believe that the USA perpetuated the destruction of these holy places as the USA wanted to divide and rule - an old British policy in the area.
I hardly need point out that the creation of uniformed Shia death squads can be directly attributed to the USA - Mr John Negroponte is a bit of a past master at that type of thing by all reports. Furthermore, I note in today's papers that Maliki is asking for heavy weaponry so that the US can go home sooner. More of the same I guess.
Personally, I do not know what to believe about 9/11, the Moscow apartments and the recent poisonings. I took no part and don't know anyone who did. However, I can assure you that the Iranians did not destroy these sacred buildings.
Alfred said:
"I do not know what to believe about 9/11"
If you are not sure that 9/11 was accomplished by Arab terrorists mostly from SA and that perhaps it was just a conspiracy then I can't really take what you say about all rest seriously.
You use the example of Ireland but you submit that the Islamist are different. They don't saw peoples heads off on camera?
I don't buy it. Sorry ,you would have to rewrite history first.
I don't think its wise to trust that fool in Iran with nuclear weapons either.
Check what your scientists in London are saying about the Doomsday clock as of yesterday.
"They don't saw peoples heads off on camera?"
You are just pointing out a cultural difference. Many cultures find any form of execution barbaric.
I did not mention Ireland. The big fight between Protestants and Catholics took place in mainland Europe and engulfed many countries for over 100 years.
Who mentioned Islamists as being different? The fact that you do not differentiate between Islamists (who may be Iraqis or not) and other Iraqis shows how little you grasp of the history and peoples of the region. I wrote that Iraqis are different. Ten per cent of Iraqis were Christian. Now it is much less because of events that the USA triggered. Let me be quite clear about this, the Christians of Iraq are Arabs. Huge numbers of them are now refugees and scattered. Ironically, many have sought refuge in Syria - that other "Axis of Terror". Iraq is their homeland and the occupation of their country has made them suspect in the eyes of their compatriots. I guess that telling the world that one is launching a "crusade" was not a very smart move when one is attacking a country with a sizeable minority of Christians.
Lastly, I am not selling anything. The peoples of the Middle East are survivors and they will be around when most of us are long forgotten. They will outlast artificial societies like the USA and Canada, in my humble opinion.
Personally, I am much more worried about the fool in the Beltway. There are plenty of fools in Iran but they cannot act unilaterally. They are easily reined in by more sensible, experienced and educated people. Is that the case in the USA and UK?
Al have you been splitting acid hits with OH? Iran is the one of if not the most autocratic theocracies in in the world. Since when did the mullahs allow their citizens to practice a free society. You show a true inablity to see the 800 lb. hegemony gorillas in the Iranian room. Do we need to list all the terrorists acts their minions the Hezbollah have transacted. How naive to think that they for a moment would not pervert their religion in the name of seeking more power. To think otherwise would place them above the human race since its inception and they don't even come close to deserving that. Any country that would deny the holocaust and call for the total annihiation of another county isn't getting the benefit of the doubt for not being incapable of any atrocity.
OMG by inference I can speak spanish so I am able to understand freaking Castro,Hugo, Evo, and Daniel. Are you trying to outdo Pete Domenici so Kunstler has to change his mind?
"I did not mention Ireland."
By implication you did since its part of Europe and they are very divided on the issues that tend to be tied in with those two religions. You are trying to nitpick.
They do saw peoples, heads off on video which is released to the various media. We have all seen it.
I've been very concerned since Friday January 13, 1995
http://www.prosefights.org/baltimoresun/shanebowman.htm#buehlerlet
Without this high tech stuff, our legal project would be in SERIOUS TROUBLE.
http://mywebpages.comcast.net/bpayne37/index.htm