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112 comments on Revenge of the Shia?

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Buckler on January 17, 2007 - 3:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Here is something to keep in mind about the situation in the Middle East (from: http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/sns_military.pdf)

"The Middle East and North Africa are a long-term demographic nightmare. The US Census Bureau estimates that the Middle East is a region where the population will nearly double between now and 2030. The total population of the Gulf has grown from 30 million in 1950 to 39 million in 1960, 52 million in 1970, 74 million in 1980, 109 million in 1990, and 139 million in 2000. Conservative projections put it at 172 million in 2010, 211 million in 2020, 249 million in 2030, 287 million in 2040, and 321 million in 2050."

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westexas on January 17, 2007 - 3:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

According to the EIA, the one year increase in Saudi petroleum consumption from 2004 to 2005 was 360,000 bpd (Total liquids, from 1.64 mbpd to 2.0 mbpd)--a 22% year over year increase. And the average Saudi family has something like six or seven kids.

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new account on January 17, 2007 - 4:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

KSA population is forecast to grow by 40%. The state is responsible for providing housing, food, jobs, etc.

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BrianT on January 17, 2007 - 7:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

WT: Trivia: KSA uses 74% as much oil as India (whose economy is 10.5X larger).

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ET on January 17, 2007 - 4:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Actually something that the Iranians are doing right is maintaining a very low Total Fertility Rate (1.8 for 2006). They do have a fairly young population, however, which means the actual population won't level off very soon. I suspect that the small family size was 'in the works' already, but the mullahs have helped it along by encouraging people to have fewer children, unlike other areas of the ME.

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sendoilplease on January 18, 2007 - 1:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"the mullahs have helped it along by encouraging people to have fewer children"

Ahmadinejad urges Iranians to have more kids
(Oct 22, 2006)

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s remarks to a meeting of the government and parliament run counter to Iran’s long-held policy of controlling population growth

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10663272/

Ahmadinejad urges Iranian baby boom to challenge west

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,1929364,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=1

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wkwillis on January 18, 2007 - 4:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Every government in Europe is 'encouraging' mothers to have more kids and will give them anything (but enough money or tax credits) to do so. Is Iran's birth rate per mother over or under the replacement rate of 2.1%?

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112 comments on Revenge of the Shia?

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