<Help out with the technical side of TOD!The Oil DrumGetting a Grasp on Oil Production Volumes>

72 comments on Horizontal and Vertical Well Production

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Samsara on January 18, 2007 - 9:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"And maybe the learned among us can explain why the price of a barrel of oil is dropping into the 40s. Did the Peak Oil theory peak?"

I have suspicions that it is like the mid-80's when they conspired (Bush I/Reagan/KSA) to "Pump like mad" to drop the price to the floor and bankrupt Russia. (that and getting Canada and others to drop the price of gold by selling bullion) Those two things were the ways that Russia at the time got it's hard currency. Their production price I heard was more than the market price for Oil, and I believe it went a long way to bankrupt them.

Now too, we hear that the current price drop is hurting Iran finanically. Hmm.

History might rhyme with the present tune.

Or

I could be totally wrong.

John

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Keithster100 on January 18, 2007 - 12:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That would be nice!

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InfinitePossibilities on January 18, 2007 - 1:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"I could be totally wrong."

At least you have the learning to admit that yourself being wrong is a very likely possibility. I draw my hat before you, Sir.

It is far more likely that the US would never ask KSA to manipulate prices any other way than they decide to themselves because the diplomatic response to such a request would simply be roaring laughter. And even Condi Rice has limits to how much humiliation she can take (albeit they must be very, very low these days). I do understand, though, that Americans have to develop all kinds of conspiracy theories to make themselves believe that not they but someone else gets taken to the cleaners by OPEC and the rest of the oil producing countries. It is, after all, quite devastating to realize that one is the laughing stock of most of the world...

:-)

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Buckler on January 18, 2007 - 3:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well, you can't know anything with 100% certainty (in a philosophical sense) but we are getting into the 70% or so certainty range.

The NY Times reported on 12.23.06:

"A member of the Saudi royal family with knowledge of the discussions between Mr. Cheney and King Abdullah said the king had presented Mr. Cheney with a plan to raise oil production to force down the price, in hopes of causing economic turmoil for Iran without becoming directly involved in a confrontation."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/22/world/middleeast/22saudi.html?pagewant...

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reddot on January 18, 2007 - 1:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

... or "history might rhyme with present time".

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Nagorak on January 19, 2007 - 9:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

(double post)

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Nagorak on January 19, 2007 - 9:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I don't buy the whole KSA wanting to bankrupt Iran. That's basically somewhere between speculation and a rumor and probably closer to a rumor (least credibility). KSA needs the money nearly as much as Iran does. Saudi Arabia is facing a massive population explosion, and massive unemployment among the younger generation. They really can't afford to forego money that would better be spent on development for short term political grandstanding. That isn't to say their leadership won't make mistakes, but if they are smart in the long run they should fear their own populace a lot more than they fear Iran.

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Ammond on January 19, 2007 - 12:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nagorak writes - "I don't buy the whole KSA wanting to bankrupt Iran. That's basically somewhere between speculation and a rumor and probably closer to a rumor (least credibility)."

It's pretty much accepted that KSA (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) both want to diminish each other's prominence in the world. We should remember that the more fervent adherents of these two parties hate each other more than they hate America.

There have been numerous other media articles on this subject. Web search around for them.

I was surprised to learn that about 80% of Shia are known as "Twelevers". Essentially they are messianic and awaiting the 12th Imām to return.

See - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelvers
"Ithnāˤashariyya) are those Shiˤa Muslims who believe there were twelve Imāms, as distinct from Ismaili & Zaidi Shi'ite Muslims, who believe in a different number of Imams or in a different path of succession. Approximately 80% of Shi'a are Twelvers and they are the largest Shi'a school of thought, predominant in Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain."

"The concept of Imāms and the Mahdi
The Shi'a Imams, the first of which is ˤAlī ibn Abī Tālib, are viewed to be infallible. It is an important aspect of Shīˤa theology that they are, however, not prophets (nabī) nor messengers (rasūl) but instead carry out Muhammad's message. They are considered as superior as all prophets and messengers except the last one. Shīˤa Muslims view all religions and groups that accept prophets or messengers after Muħammad to be heathen or heretical. ***They believe the last (who also is the twelfth and current) Imām, the Mahdī, is in hiding by the order of God and will reappear by God's command.***"

Shia messianic madmen want nukes just to be equal to our own messianic madmen with nukes. Go figure. And while you are figuring move that Doomsday clock several ticks forward.

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Nagorak on January 20, 2007 - 12:19am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well you have a good point. Maybe I am under estimating human stupidity at work.

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