The Oil Drum

Lower 48/World Comparison: http://static.flickr.com/45/145186317_215cd1247f_o.png

This graph, from our Lower 48/Texas article was basically in support of Deffeyes' prediction that 2006 was the most likely year for a crude + condensate decline, within the context of a predicted peak in the 2004 to 2008 time frame. Note that Khebab used BP's crude + condensate + NGL's, which is pretty closely matching the crude + condensate graph. (Khebab did the technical work, I am primarily responsible for the conclusions.)

The Lower 48 and the North Sea peaked and declined after crossing the 50% of Qt mark. In other words, based on Deffeyes' plot, the world in 2006, was at the same stage of depletion at which the Lower 48 and the North Sea started declining (all three are crude + condensate plots).

Assuming that Ghawar is declining 100% of the oil fields in the world which are, or were, producing one mbpd or more are now in decline or crashing. This is happening just we hit record levels of crude oil production. In the past, when super giant fields declined, there were always other super giant fields showing stable or rising production. So, the only question right now is whether 93% or 100% of current and former super giants are in decline. This is supposed to lead to higher crude oil production? (According the Oil & Gas Journal, Kashagan, which is not even producing yet, is the only new one mbpd and larger field on the horizon, and at best, it won't cross the one mbpd line until the 2020 time frame.)

What is particularly odd about the Super Giant debate is that the key characteristic of a peak is when all or almost all of a region's giant fields start declining.

After reflecting on yesterday's Chapter 150 of the "Yes we have peaked; no we haven't debate," I can only conclude that Peak Oil Denial and Cognitive Dissonance are almost insurmountable obstacles, even on a Peak Oil website, of all places.

Re: Pemex predicts production drop

I am posting the entire text of this article. Again, David Shields is predicting that the Pemex decline will be much worse than what Pemex is admitting to. (Shields is predicting an 800,000 bpd drop from 2007 to 2008). Mexico may cease to be a net oil exporter as soon as 2010. Recall that the UK went from exporting one mbpd in 1999 to being a net importer in 2005.

BTW, Mexico, like the North Sea in 1999, just crossed the 50% of Qt mark (Khebab's HL plot for Mexico). But this is just another "coincidence." Continue with your plans to buy the SUV.

What is fascinating is all of the similarities between Pemex & Cantarell and Saudi Aramco & Ghawar. In both cases: Large carbonate fields--which account, or accounted for more than half of their production--where the remaining oil is between rapidly thinning oil columns between rising water legs and expanding gas caps.

Other than their production rate, the key difference between Pemex and Aramco is that Pemex has grudgingly admitted to the Cantarell decline. Note the references to Pemex cutting deliveries to refineries. Let's see where have we heard that before? I remember. Saudi Aramco unilaterally cutting deliveries to Asian refiners (below what the refiners wanted to buy).

Recall rumors of 50% plus water cuts at Ghawar and Heinberg's report, from an industry source, that Ghawar is crashing? Published reports put Saudi production in 2/07 at 8.5 mbpd, down 1.1 mbpd from their 2005 peak.

But of course, the Saudi decline is "voluntary." Dream on while you still can. Reality will be knocking on your door in the very near future, in my opinion.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/23061.html
Pemex predicts production drop
El Universal
Viernes 19 de enero de 2007

The progressive decline in Mexico´s capacity to produce oil is rapidly becoming more worrisome than the slump in global crude prices.

According to estimates by the state oil company, Pemex, petroleum exports will decline dramatically during the Calderón administration.

Pemex is anticipating a 13 percent drop in its crude exports over the next six years as Mexico´s proven reserves continue shrinking.

Analysts contacted by EL UNIVERSAL agree that Pemex´s inability to increase production is due to waning reserves - particularly the Cantarell field in Campeche Bay which is the source of roughly 60 percent of the nation´s proven reserves - and incapacity to access potential deep-water wells.

The first symptoms of a genuine oil crisis are becoming more and more evident.

Documents acquired by EL UNIVERSAL indicate Pemex will be forced to cut back on exports to the United States. The reduction could reach 150,000 barrels per day in the next four years. In the final two years of the Calderón administration, the reduction could reach 500,000 barrels per day.

Currently, around 1.5 million barrels of oil go to the United States daily.

The potential for long-term damage lies in the fact that such a reduction could allow other suppliers - among them, Brazil, Venezuela and Canada - to permanently steal some of Mexico´s market share.

Furthermore, Pemex has already canceled shipments of crude to the Deer Park (Texas) refinery it owns along with Shell for the next 12 months. That means prices of imported gasoline and diesel may rise.

According to Raúl Muñoz Leos, a former Pemex director, the primary problem lies in the rapid decline of Cantarell reserves and the failure to develop other fields.

Muñoz said production levels rose steadily from 2002 to 2004, encouraging company directors to predict a continuation of this trend.

"We established a production goal of 4 million barrels a day by 2006, but by mid-2005 production levels began to decline," he said.

Although Pemex´s exploration budget was boosted to US$4 billion last year, the investment has yet to bear fruit.

"Since this sizeable investment has brought little in return, it might be time for us to learn from the experience of other international producers and redouble our exploration efforts," he said. "It is impossible to ignore the fact that our reserves are rapidly shrinking."

The latest official projection shows Pemex will be able to produce only 3.3 million barrels per day over the next 10 years.

George Baker, an oil industry consultant, told EL UNIVERSAL the situation is further complicated by the fact that the price for Mexico´s basket of crude - which is heavy and therefore less attractive - is so low.

"It is very dangerous to lose market share," Baker said. "Especially if your share is taken by someone who can supply lighter crude."

PMI Comercio Internacional, Pemex´s export management company, has already begun to notify some clients in the United States that it will have to cancel some contracts because production levels are declining.

Rosendo Zambrano, the director of PMI, explained that the contracts affected at present are short-term, renewable contracts that will be sacrificed due to the 150,000 barrel-a-day cutback planned for 2007-2010.

However, Pemex is also notifying clients with long-term contracts that production levels may force adjustments in contracts beginning in 2010.

"We are facing a very complicated situation that could result in the loss of more and more clients," said a Pemex official who asked to remain anonymous.