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270 comments on DrumBeat: January 27, 2007

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Joseph Palmer on January 27, 2007 - 1:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Tin foil hat time...

Can anyone else see a line between the Cantarell crash and this Halliburton Press release?

The contract, which is effective immediately, provides for establishing temporary detention and processing capabilities to augment existing ICE Detention and Removal Operations (DRO) Program facilities in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs. The contingency support contract provides for planning and, if required, initiation of specific engineering, construction and logistics support tasks to establish, operate and maintain one or more expansion facilities.

The contract may also provide migrant detention support to other U.S. Government organizations in the event of an immigration emergency, as well as the development of a plan to react to a national emergency, such as a natural disaster. In the event of a natural disaster, the contractor could be tasked with providing housing for ICE personnel performing law enforcement functions in support of relief efforts.

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GliderGuider on January 27, 2007 - 1:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I've been beating this drum for a while. Here's how I see it playing out, in an article I've posted in various places on the net:

Mexico: The "Global Problematique" in Action

In the 1970's the Club of Rome identified a set of interacting, amplifying and interfering problems they dubbed the "Global Problematique". Those problems included things like resource depletion of all kinds, pollution, climate change, political and economic instability etc., with population growth as the root cause.

I've been refining a present-day example of the Problematique involving oil depletion, climate change, food scarcity and socioeconomic instability, I think it helps to bring the nature of the problems the world will face over the next few decades into stark relief. It goes like this:

  • Mexico's biggest oil field is Cantarell. Its 2 million barrel per day output is responsible for 60% of Mexico's production, and all its oil exports to the United States.
  • Mexico's oil exports account for 40% of Mexico's public funding.
  • Cantarell's output is known to be crashing. Reliable estimates point to a 70% reduction in output by the end of 2008.
  • When this happens Mexico's economy is likely to implode.
  • The United States currently exports about 20% of its corn crop.
  • Next year, 20% of the United States' corn crop is going to be used for ethanol.
  • Mexico imports a substantial amount of corn from the United States.
  • As Cantarell's output declines, oil exports to the US will drop in lockstep.
  • As oil imports drop in the US, the pressure will mount to produce more ethanol as a substitute.
  • As more corn is bought by the American ethanol industry, US corn exports - especially to Mexico - will slide.
  • At the same time the probability is high that Global Warming will result in higher temperatures in Mexico - a country already at temperature risk.
  • Rising temperatures will bring more drought conditions, and a drop in Mexico's own corn production.
  • Now you have a country with a decimated economy and declining food. This is a recipe for massive migration.
  • The migration moves north as it always has, but this time in massive numbers.
  • As the economic refugees cross the border, what do they find?
  • In January, 2006, KBR was given a $385M contract to build a string of very large detention camps in the United States...

    • Peak oil, global warming, food, biofuels and fascism - all rolled up into one neat but ugly little package. Coming to a border near you within 5 years.

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    austex on January 27, 2007 - 2:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    Does anyone know where these detentions camps will be located?

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    GliderGuider on January 27, 2007 - 2:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    I don't know how reliable the information is, but this site gives a list and a map. They seem to be mostly in the south, with the highest concentration (pun unintended) in Texas.

    http://www.geocities.com/theawakeningnews/Police_State-Concentration_Cam...

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    austex on January 27, 2007 - 2:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    I don't know how reliable the information is, but this site gives a list and a map. They seem to be mostly in the south, with the highest concentration (pun unintended) in Texas.

    We have plenty of current inventory down here, and we should be able to keep these facilities full at the rate they countinue to pour in the country. I've lived in Central Texas most of my life, and can vouch that during the last 5 years the area has been completely transformed.

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    Gail the Actuary on January 27, 2007 - 8:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    The map certainly has a lot of concentration camps. If there were that many, it would seem like employees involved with them would start leaking out the word.

    Alternatively, if they exist at this time, they may not be staffed. Finding staff would seem like it would be tricky - unless Halliburton does it all.

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    Aniya on January 27, 2007 - 10:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    Hi Gail,

    A current detention facility (non-profit?)
    http://www.ice.gov/pi/news/factsheets/huttodetentionfac.htm

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    westexas on January 27, 2007 - 3:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/26/AR200701...

    A Culinary and Cultural Staple in Crisis
    Mexico Grapples With Soaring Prices for Corn -- and Tortillas

    By Manuel Roig-Franzia
    Washington Post Foreign Service
    Saturday, January 27, 2007; A01

    With a minimum wage of $4.60 a day, Mexican families with one wage earner have been faced in recent months with the choice of having to spend as much as a third of their income on tortillas -- or eating less or switching to cheaper alternatives.

    There is almost universal consensus in Mexico that higher demand for ethanol is at the root of price increases for corn and tortillas.

    Ethanol, which has become more popular as an alternative fuel in the United States and elsewhere because of high oil prices, is generally made with yellow corn. But the price of white corn, which is used to make tortillas, is indexed in Mexico to the international price of yellow corn, said Puente, the Mexico City economist.

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    Asebius on January 27, 2007 - 3:57pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    Good find.

    The Economist a few days back very rapidly dismissed the ethanol-white corn connection. So rapidly that I became suspicious that they had done zero real homework on the issue.

    But the price of white corn, which is used to make tortillas, is indexed in Mexico to the international price of yellow corn, said Puente, the Mexico City economist.

    We definitely need more info on this. This begs as many questions as it answers.

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    airdale on January 27, 2007 - 6:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    Asebius,
    Unless the white corn fetches the same price as the yellow(lower for white) this I would assume the wise farmer would fill his planter hoppers with yellow corn next year.

    Simple market economics I suppose. We use plenty of white corn for ourselves so I think both prices will be in lockstep.

    Since we raise none in my area, popcorn yes, then I can't get a good read on what the locals may do. Barring that I think they will go with the good prices.

    Already plenty of winter wheat is in the ground due to the wheat runup last year however they might even rip that out and plant corn if wheat looks to be a loser. I have seen them do that before.

    Mexico is going to be a handy barometer for us up north to see which way the cat is swinging on the line. Will it land on its feet? My childhood tests on the farm from throwing cats out the hayloft proved you can't tell precisely.

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    step back on January 27, 2007 - 11:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    Speaking of corn, did anyone catch Hillary Clinton's debut in Iowa this morning? The topic of global warming was raised. Hillary promised all the Iowa corn farmers that the switch to them there "alternative fuels" will save the day and bring good times to Iowa.

    Sheesh.

    Let the games of bait and delude begin.
    Follow the yellow-caked road.

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    Asebius on January 27, 2007 - 11:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    Airdale,

    You wrote:

    Mexico is going to be a handy barometer for us up north to see which way the cat is swinging on the line. Will it land on its feet?

    For sure. Even if world peak is down the road, Mexico's peak will provide a taste of the future.

    BTW, Mexico has it's own migration problem with desperate folks crossing it's southern border in large numbers wanting access to the US.

    In tomorrow's NYT:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/world/americas/28mexico.html?ex=157680...

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    KansasCrude on January 28, 2007 - 5:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    Typically white corn is priced at a premium to yellow corn because it yields less. Farmers have to be compensated for the lower yield with higher prices in order to be incented to plant the white corn. (Premiums used to be at least 25% I'm not currently knowledgable at what the current market premiums are) The primary reason for the lower yield is the lower focus by the plant breeders on white corn because it is typically less than 2% of the total corn crop. (White corn is primarily used as a human food. I.e. Tostitos, White Corn Meal and other ethnic foods.) Why is white corn inferior to yellow dent? As an animal feed it is at a disadvantage to yellow corn because its amino acid profile is short an essential amino acid required in the livestocks digestion. Since most corn in the U.S. has been grown to date for livestock feed white corn is disadvantaged.

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    karlof1 on January 28, 2007 - 3:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    The 100+ year-old push-pull affect of the US economy on Mexican migration is a very well documented historical phenomenon. This time circumstances are somewhat different. Many Mexican campesinos--subsistence farmers that own their own land or jointly in a collective called an ejido--were forced off their land due to NAFTA rules that allowed the dumping of highly subsidized, below market-priced US corn on the Mexican market; however, the land is still there, idle. I would expect a return to the land before a large influx into El Norte. You see, there's a communication grapevine that provides information about conditions both north and south, and conditions for the undocumented migrant are not good in El Norte and unlikely to improve for some time. Further, traditional campesinos use very few fossil fuel imputs; in a very real sense, the idea of permaculture comes from Mexico's terraced gardens and the complementary growing system of beans, squash and corn. Why risk death crossing the border or incarceration if you make it when it's much easier to return to the farm?

    Pemex's bankruptcy and Cantarell's crashing presents a political crisis for Mexico's elite and threatens the stabilty of the small middle class, and the same can be said of El Norte. Their crisis presents a great opportunity for the long downtrodden majority to gain power a la Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela.

    Personally, I find it rather ironic that Bush's ethanol policy will destabilize Mexico's illegitimate president after he did so much to have him installed in the first place. Considering the great lack of corporate media coverage of events in Mexico unless you know Spanish, it will be hard to see the precursors of the coming revolution beyond those that are already there and very active.

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    airdale on January 28, 2007 - 8:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    Karlof1,

    I think it would be great if the Mexican peons and farmers could return to their previous way of life and a more sustainable one. This could then serve as a model for ours as we begin to circle the drain.

    Maybe it isn't too late for them. Maybe they will decide that the gringos are rather stupid after all.

    Perhaps we inadvertenly did them a favor by dumping that corn on them.

    I thought Calderon was a rather savvy dude. Surely he can see what our future could possibly be up here. Then he might have to build his own wall and detention camps in the future to keep out the gringos who can't even raise corn anymore.

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    Substrate on January 27, 2007 - 2:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    Joseph Palmer...your link is merely a link in look...for whatever reason there is no web address associated with it. What is the actual address of that halliburton press release?

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    Joseph Palmer on January 27, 2007 - 4:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    I'll try it another way...

    http://www.halliburton.com/default/main/halliburton/eng/news/source_file...

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    step back on January 27, 2007 - 11:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    ... for what ever reason

    joe, the href= out is missing in your anchor tag: {a href=""}{/a}

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    Substrate on January 28, 2007 - 7:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    Thanks!

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    TechGuy on January 28, 2007 - 1:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

    I have no way to prove or verify this, so take this with a grain of salt:

    I suspect that this may be in prepration for the collapse of the Mexican gov't. If Mexico does collapse there probably be a large number of people who wish to flee the chaos. The US would be a likely destination. The purpose of the detention camps would to be deal with this situation. Since Mexico is largely dependant on Oil exports, a production collapse definately has the potential to create a collapse.

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