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28 comments on Toughness is so manly--and so effective at grabbing gas--just ask Russia
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Look, the problem comes back to the elephant in the living room, the one everyone pretends is not there...
The EU has no REAL POWER to enforce anything. Going back to the birth of the Euro currency, anyone who asked how this organization would be able to enforce policy was called "out of touch" with the new modern idea of the Uber Europe, which of course could enforce it's will by simply proclaiming, and did not need real enforcement. Beside, Europe had the Charters (voted down by a fair number of Euro states), it's constitution (never accepted by a fair number of Euro states, it's "economic understandings" (ignored by most). Europe has no real military power, no home base of resources, a slow to non moving economy, rapidly approaching social welfare obligations it cannot possibly meet, and an aging demographic that makes our social security issues look like a cake walk.
Jerome A Paris makes one very astute remark:
"A lot of people have discovered in the past year that Europe's dependence on Russian gas was growing, and have begun to panic."
The last four words are very accurate, "have began to panic". But it is not the gas situation alone that is causing this panic. The gas issue simply makes visible the full magnitude of Europe's complete lack of power in the world, and the EU's "black hole" of real enforcable policy. The EU has about the clout of the old Trilateral Commision, and now fears the world will begin to see the truth of it's situation. Then what? Easy answer, money begins to leave a currency that has never been anything more than a glorified travelers check. Only the Americans are still completely bought into the cult of European superiority. Compounded by America's own almost blinding self hatred, and the utter disgust and disdain we hold for our Administration, we have been easy suckers for the Uber Euro scam, and many Americans who invested in Europe simply to spite our own nation stand to be wiped out when the reality of the world situation hits.
I want to make a VERY IMPORTANT disclaimer as I close here: I do not say these things as in anyway insulting or disdainful of the European nations. I am of German descent on my mothers side, own two European cars, have many European friends and business contacts, and wish ONLY THE BEST OUTCOME for the people of Europe, who have suffered through more than most Americans would have the strenth to bear over the last century. My respect for the individual cultures and nations of Europe is very great, they have been lights to civilization in many ways. It is this bizarre concoction that is the "EU" that I have grave doubts about, and in fact in my own mind have never found a logical way to accept as a valid and viable governmental or organizational entity in the world. Sorry. I just don't think they have accomplished anything, and I don't think they have been logically consistant, nor been able to demonstrate any evidence of organizational competence. The EU is an organization in search of a mission, printing money with no backing, and issuing proclaimations of no usefulness. They are the classic definition of a "Paper Dragon".
In the end, Vienna, Rome, Paris, Bonn, London and all the rest, finally including Brussels, will sigh, and go back to making their deals and planning their futures without consulting with the old out of touch folks in Brussels at the EU. Which of course is what they should have been doing all along.
What should the Americans do vis a vie the Europeans? Simple. Deal honestly, directly, straightforwardly with the individual European nations in matters of open and cooperative trade and mutual education and assistance, and pretend for all practical effects that the "EU" does not exist. Because facts on the ground are, it really doesn't.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom.
RC
I agree with most of what you write.
BUT, the most important goal of the EU is to stabilize Europe and to prevent wars breaking out. It stabilizes the continent that was embroiled in wars for centuries. This is the main point of having the EU - to give nations a place to discuss their differences instead of going to war. And this works. If it were not for the EU, the break-up of Yugoslavia could have lead to a larger war including many countries in the region. Many-many countries have minorities in other countries in Europe and this is a possible source of conflict.
Also at the current time, the EU is divided over many issues and there is no hope yet to make a more centralized federal government (like the USA). But this could change with time. It is utmost of importance for the USA to prevent a more centralized European state. They use the UK and other means of 'divide and conquer' strategy to slow down the integration of Europe. Why? Because Europe then could become a major international player (which currently it is not).
As for the Euro, it is considered by many a safer currency than the dollar. The US prints the dollar limitlessly and this causes its value to fall - an eventual collapse of the dollar is also possible. European nations do not have very high debts and trade deficits, even though the Euro is not backed by gold reserves either (which is a weakness).
You make good points regarding the "stabilization" function, although one wonders why the UN or a "World Court" funtion at the Hague would not work to do that for cheaper...but no war in Europe for over a half century has been a victory for all and for the people of Europe.
ON the issue of: "European nations do not have very high debts and trade deficits", I frankly do not know how anyone would know. The U.S. accepts that all European nations are running close to the "Memoranda of Understanding" of the EU members, but most of the big players have never been in compliance witht the EU "Memoranda" and have shown no real effort to get there.
When American debt is counted, we count the debt we owe ourselves in upcoming social contractual obligations (Social Security, projected Medical obligations, etc.), do the Europeans count in this way? I would have to learn more on that, real statistics are hard to find on Europe, surprisingly. If the EU proclaims a goal, most Americans simply assume this has the force of law, and they have met it. That is in no way the case in most instances.
RC
Dear RC
As a Citizen of a small sovereign state (1300 years) in Scandinavia, I can tell you that for many of the 450 million EU zitiens, the EU project is primarily a stabilisation project after the fall of the iron curtain and secondly a fair trade arrangement.
The much critizised EU "bureaucracy" is actually much smaller than the administration of a small city like Copenhagen.
The most important work, being done at the moment is the harmonisation of trade and environmental rules, making trade flow easy, without barriers.
The coming REACH chemical/environmental regulations is another example.
This part of the EU is running smoothly and is integrated in national legislation, because all involved see the use.
On the other hand a lot of countries, mine included see the EU as a loose cooperation, and we do not really want it to be a union or a state. Maybe we should have have an constitution - but not too much.
We have done our business for 1300 years- occasionly being invaded by large neighbours and we like the idea that the EU makes this impossible. And we like to keep it that way.
Similarly , most Europeans (maybe not journalists)see clearly that our security lies within NATO, for the same reason and are thankful for the support we have had from the NATO nations.
You could imagine the problems You would get in integrating North and South America in the same level of close cooperation like the EU. Just think.
And please dont embrace the EU in one.
The just published EUROBAROMETER investigation http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb66/eb66_highlights_en.p... warning- large file. will show the wery different attitudes towards the EU from member states.
In terms of energy the EU has a growing import problem. But we are tackling it rationally. On all EU- and national levels this is sinking in at the moment and the plans for energy efficiency, biofuels etc published this spring is just a small image of what to come.
IMHO, the EU will in a few years be world leading in conservation, in power supply, in energy efficiency, in domestic energy use and industry, doing more with less energy, and will be eminently placed to show the rest of the world how to powerdown. Some Nuclear and some Coal and a lot of renewables will help us get along.
Kind regards And1 :-)
I really don't think you have any idea what the EU is about. Stop reading the UK press to have information on the EU, seriously.
I'm not sure I understand what issues you are talking about here. Are you saying the EU is unable to enforce regulations within member states? Could you give some examples where that is the case?
Complete lack of power? It's certainly true that the EU nations lack the ability to project military power around the globe US style, but then again, Europe pretty much gave up on the whole empire idea in the second half of the last century, so there is really no need for that kind of military power. You also seem to overlook the small issue of economic power. Or are you saying that the EU has no economic power?
For a scam currency it seems to be surprisingly popular in the world, even or especially outside the US, following your logic I suppose those countries must have their share of unpatriotic suckers who buy it just to spite their respective governments.
Whoa, now the EU doesn't even exist? Care to elaborate what these fact on the ground are?
I removed this comment as being not relevant.
Francois
The facts on the ground are that the biggest members of the European Union ignore the provisions of the core documents of the European Union, these being the Maastricht Treaty, the Growth and Stability Pact, and of course, do not now care about the Constitutional issue, since they abandoned it with the complete collapse that was the "non" votes of a couple of years ago. (Has anybody noticed how the Constitutional Referendum, which were "critical" to the future of Europe back then, well, really don't matter too much now?) This begs a question: Upon what legal standing does the European Union now exist?
The Growth and Stability Pact, dead?
http://www.radionetherlands.nl/currentaffairs/region/westerneurope/eu050...
"The Growth and Stability Pact was designed to guarantee that the euro would become and remain a strong and reliable currency. Accordingly, the 12 countries of the 'eurozone' were required to aim for balanced domestic budgets and, in any event, not to allow their national deficits to exceed an upper-limit of three percent of Gross Domestic Product.
Breaking the rules
As it turned out, that proved to be a pipe dream. When both France and Germany strayed beyond the three-percent norm a few years ago, they managed - as the eurozone's two most powerful nations - to exert enough political pressure to cause most of the other countries to grudgingly accept the situation. Contrary to what the rules prescribe, they were not penalised for their transgressions, and the European Commission (EC) - charged with monitoring compliance with those rules - appeared powerless to change the situation. It was at this point, in fact, that the pact was dealt the deathblow."
"Nevertheless, the finance ministers resolved that the pact needed to be relaxed and modified, if only to maintain the impression that some rules still apply to safeguard the stability of the euro. And that is precisely what has just happened."
http://www.ceps.be/Article.php?article_id=135
I will venture to say that not 1 in 10 Americans (or other non-Europeans for that matter) are aware of this, or are aware that the currency they are investing in is in this condition. I often hear Americans say that all European nations MUST HAVE a balanced budget, and when they give the debt numbers for Euro nations, they accept the 3% number as ACTUALLY ENFORCED, which of course Europeans know it is not (by the way, Russians being closer to the scene know that it is not). This is the "greater fool" theory....If I can get in early, and sucker my clients to come in behind me, then I make a killing, no matter how idiotic the currency being invested in actually is.
From the Economist:
European government finances
Sep 2nd 2003
From Economist.com
GERMANY and France, so long the European Union’s head partnership, have become partners in crime. Last Friday, Germany confessed to the European Commission that its budget deficit for 2003 would breach the stability and growth pact for the second year running. The pact, a largely German creation, is meant to stop members of the euro area undermining the single currency through fiscal irresponsibility: countries are permitted to run deficits of no more than 3% of GDP.…
Somebody check for me please...has Germany or France ever bothered to return to compliance? Or after the "non" votes on the Constitutional charters across the EU, have they, like everyone else, pretty much decided to go their own way while talking EU support. The Russians are being asked to give up big volumes of EXTREMELY valuable natural gas in exchange for handfuls of paper backed by this?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:EU_Constitution_Ratification_Map.png
There are also the social justice issues. The EU is by it's nature a VERY secular organization. But there is a growing non secular population in Europe, in the Islamic minority who have NO history of or experience with secular government. And even the Christians of Europe see conflicts: The EU Charter and Maastricht Treaty have provisions getting into the heart of the social justice issue. For example, if we accept the idea of absolute equality of gender, is it still legal to have a church with a male priesthood? We won't even go into how dangerous this all becomes in relation to the Muslim population. (France has seen an inkling though, and the EU of course could do nothing but sit to the sideline and watch the riots like everyone else)
EU workers abroad, do they go by the rules of the EU, the rules of their country of origin, or the rules in which they are working?
You guess...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0%2C3604%2C1432586%2C00.html
So from just after the WWII, we go from the Treaty of Paris to the Treaty of Rome, and then an almost 35 year gap to Maastricht, Treaty of Amsterdam and Treaty of Nice, none of which are any more enforcable than the last, and then the great triumph (extreme irony intended) of the Constitutional Referendums....and so much good will had been built up by 50 years work, we saw what happened there.
But noticably, the ONLY real accomplishment of the EU was to push through this currency. NOTHING else seemed achievable accept the printing of money. Does this make anyone suspicious? Do foriegn investors in Euro currency really have ANY clear understanding of the construction and legal standing of the....what, nation, confederation, organization, alliance, exactly what is it anyway (?), that they are investing in? I have friends who have proclaimed the U.S currency unstable, and called one of the new generation of "international brokers" and asked to be put in the Euro, it's the greatest thing around! When I talked to them I found out they had NO IDEA what the Euro currency or the European economy involved!
And for folks here who are fascinated by the energy situation, I DARE you to ask any of your savvy friends (not TOD readers now!) what the state of European energy is. See how many of them are aware of the North Sea decline and Europe's absolute reliance on Russion natural gas.
By the way, see how many of them know that Europe's unemployment rate is higher than the U.S.'s, or that Europe has a much higher percentage of population getting ready to retire. Just ask them.
We could go on with this for days, and I always feel like I am seen as being unfair or cruel to Europe. That is not the intent. But let's look at from another viewpoint. Just after 9/11, when America most needed it's own citizens to support it, when everyone was hanging a flag out, and when we most needed friends abroad, and everyone was sending us good wishes and flowers, we have to admit, Bush managed to pizz the world off at us.
That's o.k., Bush is not America. But, it was fascinating to watch how our so called "allies" and our "patriotic" business and investing class found any excuse to pull money and support out from under the U.S. just when we were at our weakness. Frankly, it has been sickening. The cultural self loathing that the Americans are capable of is astounding, a true cultural illness. These are the people who on the evidence of "Soviet Life" magazine, see that the U.S.S.R was a roaring success compared to the U.S., that the Japanese are incapable of error, that the Chinese are soon to rule the Earth, and of course, that Europe has ALWAYS been able to best an American in great philosophical, political and social constructions. O.K., fine, we know who our friends have been, and how quickly they will turn on us. But what has been surprising is how they will put their own money and future at risk to be spiteful and vengeful, and invest in schemes that with any analysis would be so suspect as to be obviously bogus.
On the other hand, the Russians do not seem to accept the myth so easily. They are being asked to give up something valuable (natural gas). They are being told they should be glad to give it over to the obviously superior Europeans, who know best how to run these things, and willingly take whatever volume of Euro currency the Europeans are willing to give them, because after all (the great motto of a bubble) it will always be worth later.
Gee, I wonder why they are doubtful? :-)
RC
The primary goal of the EU is solving problems that member states have in common by aligning their interests. In the 1000 years before its foundation, common problems (Access to shipping routes, resources, land etc) were usually solved through war, with the last two having devastating consequences. In that sense I would say that the EU has so far been very successfull, and the statement that its only real accomplishment is the introduction of the euro is laughable.
True, we don't have military power, but even if we did, what would you like us to do with respect to Russia? Threaten to invade or nuke them if they don't supply us with gas and oil on our terms? We all remember the fates of the armies of Napoleon and Hitler, and the Russians remember very well their 20 million dead from WWII. No one is interested in war over resources on the European continent, and the EU was not intended to provide a framework for imperialist military adventures.
With respect to the euro, if you have a problem with it, then I say it's our euro, and your problem. If other states prefer the euro over the dollar for their oil and gas payments, then so what? Even with the shenanigans that are going on with respect to the growth and stability pact, how do European deficits compare with the US deficts? Like you said, difficult to estimate, but I don't buy the idea that somehow the euro would be worse because its controlling entity is a central bank shared by 13 nations, instead of a central bank controlled by one government.
And hey, we pay Russia full market price for their oil and gas, they are not being ripped off, so we have a right to insist on reliable supplies. And I believe the EU leaders in general are very aware of our problematic energy supply situation, which is why proposals have been made to cut energy use 20% by 2020, and to diversify into renewables. even the nuclear debate is heating up again, even in the countries that already commited themselves to abandon their nuclear plants. So I would say that steps are being taken in the right direction.
Post moved up thread
Re: about unemployment
I've heard that there are different rules for unemployment stats calculations (US vs. EU), so no direct comparison apply.
Re: Russians
They are trying to start trading in Roubles (Urals brend) wanna trade roubles?:)
About the whole post: emotions prevail, do You really feel so about EU? Did it take Your lanch?:)