Wake me up when/if KSA would be unable to ramp up the production in response to the increasing demand (significant price increase).

Were you awake thru aug, while price surged to 78 and sa steadily cut production, and stubbornly continued to cut up to nov, when opec provided a fig leaf for an apparently reluctant sa to enact more cuts?

You could have bought dec o06 futures for $20 on 2002. Shows how much the market anticipates the future. The only change has been that long dated futures are now above the spot price.

That happened first in the Summer of 2004.