 | Is There A Painless Way To Fill The Oil Supply Gap? | The Oil Drum | An Update on Mexico's Oil Production--The Rapid Collapse of Cantarell by the Numbers |  |
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I noticed that Freddy, who eloquently described Deffeyes & Simmons as "scumbags," was in rare form yesterday, attacking me, Ron and Khebab in one fell swoop:
Just a reminder:
Deffeyes, based on his HL plot, predicted that 2006 was the most likely year for a decline in world crude oil production, and world crude oil production is down.
I predicted, using Khebab's HL plots (and in support of Simmons' work), that 2006 was the most likely year for a decline in Saudi crude oil production, and Saudi crude oil production is down.
Khebab predicted that Mexican crude oil production would start declining in the 2006/2007 time frame, and Mexican crude oil production is declining.
In regard to Freddy's comment about HL plots. I have been focusing on large producing regions--60 Gb plus--especially as models for the world and Saudi Arabia. As I have repeatedly pointed out, the HL model has worked quite well both for modeling large producing regions and as a predictive tool.
Finally, is there any prospect on the horizon for anything that will address the troll issue?
We're working on it.
In the mean time, it would really help if you wouldn't bring old flamewars over into new threads. Why give the idiots more exposure than they already have?
Ah c'mon...I like the whole "moooo" ranking system...that's kinda fun!!
I second Mooooo ratings for the following reasons:
1) The Moooos provide feedback to the errant posters. If everyone Moooos you on a regular basis then maybe there is a hint there that you may be posting to the wrong blog to the wrong audience.
2) It gives all of us a sense of where the median opinion may be. I thought TOD was one kind of place but perhaps I am mistaken.
3) It saves the high electron usage/download times associated with extended flamewar rebuttals.
4) It may give the editors/site owners some useful feedback about the audience and this may then translate into a more effective posting/screening system.
Cheers!
Oh God, I knew this would happen. The Mooo! technique is the thermonuclear weapon of troll warfare. It should be used sparingly, if at all. It was with a heavy heart that I deployed it against dmathew1, who has infested many a messageboard and forum, derailing discussions with endless repetitions of his half-baked, apolocalyptic religious ravings. He is unusually persistent, unusually loopy and unusually tedious. The Moo! technique is therefore both appropriate and effective because it expresses the vast majority of readers' distain and non-interest in his posts, while giving him nothing substantial to reply to nor stroking his ego by taking him seriously.
To use this awesome power against lesser offenders would be horrific. I know many who post disagree with Freddy and Hothgor and find their persistance annoying, but they do actually discuss what this forum is about: namely oil and energy. As someone who comes here to learn and posts rarely, I find theirs a useful contribution as they do open up debates and provide a needed counterpoint to the majority opinion. Certainly, they could both do better and use less infective against those they disagree with, but even so a Mooo! would be overkill for the 99% of their posts.
So as the person who introduced the Mooo! system, I beg of you all - for the sake of the children! - only use it for the true nutjobs.
MCrab
So the homesteaders rule the roost? Anybody who disagrees with their point of view is declared a troll. Great - the most exciting part of the site will be the flame wars.
By the way, how many of the posters here are in the oil trading busiess? It seems to be in their interest to play up PO and higher prices, so I'm wondering, given that the amount of known reserves is in the four trillion barrel range, why so many posters keep spreading doom and gloom.
the Oil Drum's one great contribution to the Peak Oil movement is the persistence of its flame wars. The Oil Drum is populated by a bunch of people who must work at their computers and therefore have way too much time of their hands. So they waste it here where they can pretend like they are in control and doing something significant ... you know, saving the world from Peak Oil and religion and ethanol and legislation which might potentially harm the oil industry in some small manner.
You cannot blame people for behaving consistently with their own flawed character. The Oil Drum's is so narrowly focused that these people have no choice except to talk about the same thing every single day. The flame wars are just a sport for them.
Oil people aren't well known for their tolerance, open mindedness, philosophical acumen, religious knowledge, humanitarianism, morality, ethics or love for the environment. You can hardly blame oil people from behaving in a boorish manner because that is their very nature.
David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1
P.S. Where are those cows? Bring me some cows. I love these cows. These people would do the whole world a favor if they all became cows.
Sorry, somehow a later posting was misplaced.
The day TOD implements a popularity contest is the day that TOD joins the PO fringe setting. But if you want to be a radical site, be my guest. I certainly wont lose much sleep over it.
Moooooooo!
Un-Moooooo!
Moooooo!
OK, I've deleted some responses to Hothgor recently, I'll admit, as it just isn't worth anyone's time including my own - and after reading further down the thread, that includes this one.
Just noting that this an edit, as a delete function isn't available.
I'd like to have the ability to not see certain posters' comments. In fact, I don't want to see their comments or any replies to their comments. That would eliminate a lot of noise. I realize it would be a dangerous tool to use, I don't want to block out opinions that differ from mine only blatant trolls. I would also need to ability to review comments from people on my block list every now and then to decide if I wanted to unblock them.
Rating systems are ok I guess, but I've never been too pleased with their results on other sites such as Slashdot.
I wonder if there is software for wordprint analysis. Wordprints are a measure of how often a person uses prepositions, conjunctions, and articles (a, an, or the) in their writing. Counting the number of words a person uses in an average sentence is also part of wordprints. There are a couple of other factors involved also which I presently don't recall. It is extemely difficult if not impossible to change your wordprint. This means a troll who freqently changes their screen name and e-mail address could quickly be identified and subsequently blocked from filling up the comments threads with personal attacks and other drivel.
Tom Deplume wrote:
I seriously doubt this. Here's how to change it:
Go to the library find any writer you like and study his/her style. It isn't that hard to analyze sentence structure if you paid attention in grammar class.
In senior high, as a joke on an english teacher, I wrote an essay mimicking Dickens. Didn't overdo it, didn't attempt parody, just tried to be as Dickensian as possible. The teacher, bless his heart, gave me an A+.
You can also study the style of legal briefs, instant messaging chat sessions, scientific journals, wine labels etc.
EDIT: Actually, there is such a variety of styles here on TOD that you don't have to go to the library. Just pick another poster and begin your analysis.
Most of us, here, could do Freddy Hutter with no study at all!! :-)
See:
http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20070113/bob9.asp
For the record, I see more name calling by the people TOD apparently 'wants' to keep around then the people that you want to get rid of.
You are certainly in the top five most abusive posters.
Alan
Actually, average oil production for last year with the most recent data shows we were up 39,000 bpd average over 2005. Its not much, but at least you should get your facts somewhat straight.
As for the HL. Only 8 of 50 countries that have peaked actually did so when the HL suggested they would. That essentially means that the Prophet has a 16% chance of being right.
HL work GREAT for predicting future production from a region AFTER it has peaked, not before.
As for the trolling issue, as it was stated before, a troll is someone who doesn't bring anything to the table. That very clearly does not describe any of the people you want to see 'addressed' in the near future. But I bet you would like to have no dissenting voices on this site after the thrashing you received about the super giant production :laughs:
The problem with the most recent data is that a few months down the road the numbers have most often been revised downward. It will probably be March or April before final figures for 2006 are released. That 139,000 bbl/d increase may be revised down to a 139,000 bbl/d drop.
2006 Supply up 0.7-mbd over 2005
December - 85.45-mbd
Russia: new record 9.84-mbd (up 40kbd)
Saudi Arabia: 8.52-mbd (down 100kbd)
Mexico: 3.59-mbd (up 40kbd)
Canada: 3.42-mbd (up 60kbd)
december iea stats
(1) The EIA shows the most recent crude + condensate production number to be 655,000 bpd below the 2005 peak. Note that I said that crude oil production was down.
(2) Khebab's post on Cantarell shows how "unimportant" the super giant oil fields are.
(3) As I said in my post, I am primarily focused on larger producing regions as models for the world and Saudi Arabia. As predicted by the mathematical and historical models, world and Saudi crude oil production are declining. So, again, until you and Freddy get some production data to support your predictions for rising crude oil production, why do you continue to attack the method, even as the production data, most recently in Mexico, support the method?
Hello Westexas,
This argument, again?
How many more times?
Denial then affirmation, affirmation then denial, denial then affirmation, affirmation then denial ...
Come on, man. there's more to life than HL Plots. Also, more to life than oil. More to life than the Oil Drum, especially.
Sincerely,
David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1
Mooooooo!
you do know your not actually helping?
you may not like dmatthew1, but at least he is mature enough to actually talk instead of filling the site up with spam like what your doing.
no his posts are not spam, you might not agree with what he says but it's NOT spam. spam is posing 'mooo' as the only work in your post every time a person you don;t like posts.
i move that the people who do this get a 24 hour warning ban.
I disagree
The sum total of his above post is a series of injunctions to WT on how WT should live his life. When he is not dictating how WT should live his life he is dictating how RR should live his life. When not engaged in these topics he describes his moonlit walks with a banana.
These topics may strike you as deeply profound. I simply do not see how they have bearing on the topics that appear to be the subject of this site.
I do not know enough to either like or dislike him. I cannot find any content apart from the injunctive, hence the moooo.