The Oil Drum

You and Khebab are clearly emphasing a critically important point.

I would just note that EROI doesn't have to be "combined with a degrading BTU content" since the latter is integral to the former.

Here we go:

Wild Ass Guess?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Total global debt issuance jumped 14.1 percent from 2005 to a record $US 6.948 TRILLION in 2006. Leading the way once again was the U.S. with total debt issuance in 2006 increasing by 10.1 percent to $US 4.085 TRILLION. With the US economy at about 20% of the global GDP, it has issued debt almost three times its own relative global economic size. The U.S. now has total debt of 3.7 times GDP, a level never seen before.

At some point debt becomes deflationary because there is too much of it and the debt has been used to create even more overcapacity. We are starting to see in the U.S. signs, like sub-prime lending losses and higher home foreclosures, that income cannot support the amount of debt. Has anyone lately driven by a new commercial complex that is half empty while they are building a brand new one right next to it? As a result, new debt begins to have less and less effect on creating growth: in 1980 it took $1 of new debt to create $1 of GDP; in 2000 it took $4 and today it takes $7. We seem to be pushing on a string.

Now STF up and find another blog you troll.

Hothgor wrote:

That being said: dozens of people predicted the imminent collapse of the US economy in Q3 and Q4 of 2006, and of course Darwinian states that it will now occur this year. I guess doom is the real abiotic oil source as it seems to power most posters these days with an unlimited cynical outlook.

Hothgor, that is an absolute lie. I have never said the US economy will collapse this year. In fact I never discuss the economy except as it relates to the consequences of peak oil. I have speculated on what will happen to the stock market when peak oil becomes an accepted fact by the investing public. But I have no idea when that will happen. It may be a decade off. And in fact it may be this year but I do not expect it this year. It takes a long while for such a concept to sink in, at least a year or two even when the rest of the world realizes the truth.

When people realize that the economy must shrink forever instead of grow, then I expect the mother of all stock market crashes. People do invest for growth and not shrinkage you know. But I have no crystal ball. I have no idea when this knowledge will sink into the investing public. But I would be shocked if the consequences of peak oil become common knowledge to investors within the next five years.

I suspect what you are confused about here is I said I expect the collapse of Saudi oil production, probably this year. But it may be next year but it is my opinion that we are already seeing the first stages of the collapse of Saudi oil production. I have never said that the US economy will collapse this year. You are just a damn liar.

Ron Patterson

Oh my...are you calling the Fed "a shadowy lunatic that is ignored by the rest of the world", then?

Try their Z.1 statistical release "Flow of Funds Accounts of the US", Dec. 7, 2006 page 66. Total debt outstanding $43.47 trillion as of the third quarter 2006...nominal GDP at that time can be found on the same document, p. 20, $13.33 trillion. Ratio = 326%. You are right,it is NOT as high as 327%. Silly me. :)

This, however, does not include the special issue treasury bonds (ie more debt) held by the Social Security, abt. another 4 trillion. Brings the whole thing to 356% of GDP. Highest ever on record. Previous all time high was around 270% in 1930-32. Not a good comparison, what with Great Depression and all...

But, like many people, you may be confusing "debt" with "national" debt, i.e. that which is owed by the govt. alone. This is only a part of the total. Look up the data in the Fed release.

Hi Hothgor,

Thanks for bringing this up.
"Its SHOCKING that such sarcasm seems to be beyond the vast majority of TOD posters."

I'm not at all sure about anyone else. For myself, though, I find it difficult to understand sarcasm, so I'm wondering if you could perhaps also indicate when you decide to use it?

Something I've observed, is that sarcasm often is a sign of strong emotions, and also, it is best understood by people who already have some common framework of emotional understanding. Often online and writing compounds the difficulty of understanding others' frameworks.

Another option would be to try to translate it (into "feeling words") - (www.cnvc.org) - in addition to whatever you express via sarcasm.

Anyhow, for me, I'd appreciate it. I value the exchange of ideas here, and this would help make the conversations more clear to me.

Hothgor,

I'm a doomer, but at least I don't use the bogus stats and idiotic rationals you use.

I'm sure you believe that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction as well.

and you won't be very popular.