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173 comments on DrumBeat: February 1, 2007

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Dave Cohen on February 1, 2007 - 9:52am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This is all liquids, which the IEA defines as --

In order to achieve a mass balance in the world oil supply and demand table (Table 1), supply includes not only crude oil and NGLs, but also various types of heavy oil-like hydrocarbons and natural gas-based, coal-based and renewable-based (biofuel) sources which are used as oil product equivalents and are included in our definition of demand. These non-conventional oils include other hydrocarbons and alcohols (including Brazilian alcohol fuel and those used in gasoline blending elsewhere), biodiesel, Canadian synthetic oil production, Venezuelan Orimulsion, oil shales, coalbased and natural gas-based oil substitutes and methane-based blending components such as MTBE. Total supply of these products is estimated at around 1.7 mb/d in 2005. Since March 2006, Venezuelan heavy Orinoco crude has been included in the conventional crude oil category. Refinery processing gains are also shown as a source of oil supply in Table 1. Care needs to be taken in reading the text and tables to distinguish between crude oil and total oil supply. Thus, in Tables 1 and 3, total oil supply is shown (excluding OPEC crude for the forecast period).
They forgot to throw in the kitchen sink. Anyway, everyone at TOD should be familiar with the IEA definition.

So, am I supposed to be impressed that the world grew the "oil" supply by 0.7 mbd in 2006 over 2005?

I'll wait for the future revision. Jesus wept.

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PhilRelig on February 1, 2007 - 10:01am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, and here is a key quote from the definition that possibly constitutes the basis for a significant degree of misleading inflation in the all-important "crude plus condensate" category that has been the object of such heated debate lately on TOD:

"Since March 2006, Venezuelan heavy Orinoco crude has been included in the conventional crude oil category."

Does anyone know just how much liquid this statistical sleight-of-hand entails?

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Freddy Hutter on February 1, 2007 - 10:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

0.58-mbd

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peakearl on February 1, 2007 - 11:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

However, this shouldn't change the "all liquids" numbers if I read it right, just the categorization.

So, while really not off by more than around 1% (esp considering the 2005 hurricane impact), the EIA and IEA give slighly different impressions of the trend, possibly just error. I have still never seen a good justification for weighing one over the other. My preference would be to average them the way Stuart used to do. My bottom line is things are close enough that the unknowns greatly exceed any apparent trends and no conclusions can yet be based on production data. As long as supply is not an issue (inventories in US grew last week) we can't distinguish production capacity/voluntary cutbacks/production decline factors.

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DelusionaL on February 1, 2007 - 10:19am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Dave, Thanks for the "clarification".
I have lots of "potatoes" in my house; Potatoes from my garden, imported potatoes from safeway, potatoe chips, instant mashed potatoes, tater tots, and hash browns. I would like to include into the "starch catagory" Bulk rice, Rice-a-roni, bread, and pasta.
See I have lots of starches...my family will have starches to eat.

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Khebab on February 1, 2007 - 10:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Besides, the addition of different liquids on a volumetric basis can be very misleading because they have different BTU content per barrel. For instance, you need 1.22 barrels of NGPL to match the BTU content of one barrel of crude oil. Volumes are increasing but the energy quality/density is decreasing.

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goinggreen on February 1, 2007 - 11:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Khebab: I was going to ask if you would repost your plots that showed the BTU content plots in one of the recent drumbeats. This observation is extraordinarily important and a serious answer to those arguing that supply is growing. You cannot argue against good physics.

Question for you and others. Is there any sense of how the EROI will decrease going forward? At 1% energy cost of output it isn't a big deal. At 8:1, we are talking 12% cost and as the return on energy decreases, this really starts to become a significant component. EROI combined with the degrading BTU content could make the depletion problem significantly worse than what people have thought or have plotted to date. It could even make the CERA forecast look bad. Thoughts?

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toilforoil on February 1, 2007 - 1:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You and Khebab are clearly emphasing a critically important point.

I would just note that EROI doesn't have to be "combined with a degrading BTU content" since the latter is integral to the former.

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goinggreen on February 1, 2007 - 1:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ah yes, of course, you are correct.

Does anyone have an EROI historical curve for Texas as it went through peak and depletion?

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Khebab on February 1, 2007 - 1:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Here we go:



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oilmanbob on February 1, 2007 - 10:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And in the mean time Yukon Freddie will search fervently for any data that supports his position rather than taking a position that is based on data. Saudi Arabia increasing its sea water injection capacity by 14 million barrels a day sure looks like peak production has set in at Ghawar, especially with their "voluntary" cuts in production.

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ImSceptical on February 1, 2007 - 4:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

WAG

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gr1nn3r on February 1, 2007 - 6:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Wild Ass Guess?

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