262 comments on Global Warming - a review and a Conference Conclusion
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262 comments on Global Warming - a review and a Conference Conclusion
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GAIA Host Collective
The whole debate about global warming shows that you should always look at the numbers first. Saying that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are causing the Earth to heat rapidly is just false. First of all the most important GHG is water vapor and not CO2. Water warms the Earth when it's vapor, but it can cool it when forming clouds (clouds are little droplets forming around aerosols and that means that coal alongside CO2 emissions, emits a lot of ashes and aerosols that help form clouds and thus block the sun. Natural gas is "clean" and emits mostly CO2, causing warming effects ONLY ).
Secondly the total world natural emissions from various sources (forest fires, volcanoes, oceans etc.) are much greater than human caused emissions. There are about 1900 GT of CO2 in the atmosphere and a one year cycle is equal to 210 GT. Burning fossil fuels ads 6 GT of carbon dioxide each year, being less than 3% of the total emissions of CO2 and less than 0.3% of the total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. About one third of those 6GT stays in the atmosphere, the rest is sequestered naturally. CO2 is "responsible" for 9% of the GH effect. So anthropogenic CO2 emissions are strengthening the GH effect by 0,09% each year. This is still a LOT if you take into account that the process will be, at best, constant (0.09% for 100 years gives 9.5% rise! and the natural sequestration will probably slow down).
So YES, we are causing climate change, but many people, like Gore aren't telling the whole truth. It's not only CO2 and not only humans and most of all, not only fossil fuels!.
Another inconvenient truth is the fact that a trivial phenomenon called breathing is responsible for the biggest part of anthropogenic GHG emissions. An average person "emits" 300 kg of CO2/a. That multiplied by 6.5 billion people gives you about 2GT of CO2 per year! That's almost one third of what we are producing with all of our cars, jet planes, coal fire power plants etc. Up to late 40s humans were producing more carbon dioxide by breathing than fossil fuels burning. What about agriculture? What about 3 billions cows, pigs and chickens? Don't they breath as well? I was not able to find any data about the amount of CO2 "produced" by livestock, but if you just simply multiply the human "emissions" of 300 kg by the factor of 7 (cattle body mass is more or less 7 times higher than human body) and the number of cattle - 1.3 bln, you will get 2.7GT of CO2. That's just cottle! That means that if you sum up just the exhaled CO2 from humans and life stock you will get more CO2 than fossil fuels create. Livestock and agriculture also produce a lot of methane (over 20 times stronger GHG than CO2) and other strong greenhouse gases. Instead of pumping CO2 into oceans, how about cutting our meat consumption by a factor of 2?
By studying different aspects of PO I learned to dig really deep to find the right data. I see that a lot of you don't check the facts about global warming and you just BELIVE it.
My three cents.
http://environmentalchemistry.com/yogi/environmental/200611CO2globalwarm...
Your figures for the amount of CO2 emitted by the human population are roughly correct. These emissions are roughly balanced by plants coverting that CO2 to sugars and fibre.
The climate change problem occurs as humans are taking carbon sequestered in the earth as coal and oil and re-introducing this sequestered carbon to the atmosphere. This additional carbon is greater then the amount that can be recycled by plant respiration. This additional CO2 has been identified as a key factor in climate forcing.
In brief, the biosphere has had a well functioning carbon cycle which is now being overloaded by additional releases of previously sequestered CO2.
No, you merely skimmed a lot of contrarian blogs and swallowed the lot. The tale about water vapour has been dredged up and rebutted so many times that you clearly have not even began to read the literature if you do not address these rebuttals. See for example here
If you cannot even see the difference between exhalation of carbon dioxide by animals that must have absorbed by plants in equal amounts mostly weeks or months ahead and thus contributing no net carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and the burning of fossil fuel and releasing into the air carbon that had been locked in the ground to remain there with a mean life time of about 100 years, not only have you not read the literature, you do not have the scientific reasoning power you would hope for in a 16 year old school science student.
The arrogance that it takes for someone with so little scientific reading or ability to imagine that they can spot mistakes that have not been spotted by over 2000 of the planet's most talented and learned climatologists in over three years of detailed study building on decades of experience, checked and double checked line by line by each other, is quite bewildering.
There have been examples where the scientific consensus has been wrong and those that have first opposed this consensus have been scorned but I cannot think of a single example of where such a consensus has been overthrown by someone who did not understand fully and deeply the work of those that formed that consensus
You are not about to be the first exception to that rule.
The only true part of post is the problem of ruminants converting carbon dioxide to methane and that is included in the report and, although not negligible, will be a small part of the problem when carbon dioxide levels build up in the next decades as they will under any practically realisable way that does not involve the death of hundreds of millions of humans .
I agree that the breathing argument was stupid and I feel ashamed I missed the whole carbon cycle in that process. I wouldn't call it arrogance ... ignorance maybe ;)
As for the impact of the CO2 on the greenhouse effect, I didn't read ANY blogs, I read this: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
I'm not an expert, but the numbers seem right (checked them in other, unreliable sources, like Wikipedia) and I just don't understand why some people are saying "it's all carbon dioxide" without showing the whole picture.
Water vapor IS a greenhouse gas and the fact that H20 in the atmosphere is, to quote Sir David King, "complicated" doesn't change that. If CO2 is contributing to the GH effect 9-26% (from the article you gave as an example) and human emissions are adding about 1%/year of CO2 in the atmosphere (~7 blnT/750) why everybody is talking about carbon dioxide all the time? I know the reports include it, but NO BODY READS THEM. Usually, at best journalist read the summary and that's all you get in the media (and on TOD as well, by the way) - CO2! We emit and it gets hot. Simple as that. If I was ignorant how would you call this? Humankind, over the last ~250 years, emitted in to the atmosphere 320 billion Tons of CO2! That’s important. This is the magnitude that makes difference in the global scale and I would love to see arguments like that instead of showing Katrina victims and linking them directly to fossil fuels burning.
Also there are some negative feedbacks that don’t “sound right” and are “politically incorrect”. Like the variation in albedo caused by land use changes, or the cooling effect of the aerosols. To use your source again:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/efficacy_fig28.gif
The tasks of the climate modeler are quite different from that of public policy. We can change those things under our direct control, perhaps a little about those things under our indirect control and nothing about the rest.
The climate modeler needs to be concerned about ALL factors, the public policy makers (i.e. the rest of us) need only be concerned about CO2, fluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxides and carbon capture and, perhaps, albedo ($50 to $100 tax for any car other than white, roof color requirments ?).
Best Hopes,
Alan