<DrumBeat: February 19, 2007The Oil DrumJHK: "The ethanol craze means that we're going to burn up the Midwest's last six inches of topsoil in our gas-tanks.">
<Faber : “You won’t see 12$ / barrel oil in your lifetime.”The Oil Drum: EuropeUK Energy Descent Continues>

76 comments on China's liquid fuels future

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Euan Mearns on February 19, 2007 - 4:07am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Rembrandt, interesting post on a vital issue. A few months back I began looking at Chinese oil consumption, inspired by the work of others, and never finnished the post.

So here's a thought provoking chart. During industrialisation, per capita oil consumption rises. With China, we are still at the very tip of the ice berg. I don't think it will be possible for China's oil consumption to rise to 15 bbls per capita per annum - but I'd be interested in other views on that.

Also, can you add some translation to Figure 3? And I note this darned date of 2012 keeps cropping up time and again.

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Luis de Sousa on February 19, 2007 - 4:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I also think that China won’t make it there. Oil is just the tip of another big iceberg – China’s imports of raw materials and other commodities like grain and meat.

Chinese industry is mainly a transformation one, they buy raw materials to produce goods they send overseas. Either from lack of raw materials to import or costumers for the goods they produce China will fell every economic impact of Peak Oil. But the food balance is probably the most concerning.

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