Agree with expat here.

Don't shoot the messenger.

Beyond that, AFAIK this is not a religious site, so we need to apprise ourselves of reasonable views even when they vary a little from some sort of received catechism.

Oh, and ad hominem attacks will never fish those drowned ancient cities out of the sea. If the real world is actually not quite the equable, stable place that many seem to assume it to be, as they naively extrapolate from the mere 120 years of quantitative records that are virtually all we have (and beyond which we must resort to interpreting proxy measurements that blur out the devilish details), then we really need to know that.

So thanks, HO, for the article.

also agree with pauls and expat. HO was only presenting a differing view. are we all so tied into the TOD meme that we can't even deal with another approach? granted saylor's arguments are not particularly valid, but as a non-climatologist , i certainly learned more from the rebutals to saylor then i ever would have learned from yet another thread from the "amen choir".

Hello steverino,

also agree with pauls and expat. HO was only presenting a differing view. are we all so tied into the TOD meme that we can't even deal with another approach?

What is the TOD meme?

If TOD really does have a meme, I am naturally inclined to reject it because (as far as I can tell) that meme appears to represent the interests of the oil industry and other related industries. Heading Out seems to speak on behalf of the oil industry as he skeptically evaluates the Global Warming idea.

I have more faith in Al Gore than I have in Heading Out. At least I know Al Gore's name. Anonymous people are often anonymous for a reason. I cannot trust Heading Out until he discloses whether or not there are conflicts of interest.

The article that Heading Out wrote wasn't so very impressive, either. The conservative editorialists are more eloquent in their skepticism, but equally wrong. Heading Out used too many words to say too little.

Heading Out should at least explicitly state his opinions regarding Global Warming. I'd prefer to know what he really thinks. Not that it would change my mind. Not at all. I have read plenty of views regarding Global Warming from numerous sources all across the full range of the political spectrum.

I don't imagine that there is anything that Heading Out could say which would change my mind. I am naturally inclined to oppose the world-polluting, world-destroying, impoverished-persons-oppressing industries. The oil industry has committed enough crimes throughout the world.

I'd much prefer that the oil, coal & mining industries not exist. If that means the end of technological civilization, so much the better.

David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1

mr. mathews,..there is much that you write that i can agree on, but at other times you go way overboard with your save the whales story. do you walk everywhere you go? heat with solar power? clothe yourself with bark? off the grid? no one is above reproach in this world. i would try the holier than thou attitude elsewhere.

Hello steverino,

mr. mathews,..there is much that you write that i can agree on, but at other times you go way overboard with your save the whales story. do you walk everywhere you go? heat with solar power? clothe yourself with bark? off the grid? no one is above reproach in this world. i would try the holier than thou attitude elsewhere.

There is only one sort of life possible in the United States of America, the American Way of Life.

There was a time when I did not have a car (nor a job) and I walked everywhere I wanted to go. Life of this sort is next-to-impossible in Florida now but it functioned successfully for thousands of years prior to the modern automotive age.

Walking alongside the road is a terrible experience specifically because our roads (and our civilization) was designed specifically to be anti-pedestrian. If cars don't run you over the pollution in the air is enough to kill the pedestrian. American oil-addicted civilization is pretty unpleasant stuff, I wouldn't wish it on our worst enemy (China), but they've bought it so the end of the world is approaching that much faster.

I would much rather save the whales than save human civilization. If forced to choose between these two, I would sacrifice human civilization on behalf of the whales.

David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1

Hello PaulS,

Beyond that, AFAIK this is not a religious site, so we need to apprise ourselves of reasonable views even when they vary a little from some sort of received catechism.

TOD is not a religious website? That is hard to believe. I have read so many long discussions regarding God, Christianity and Islam here that I assumed that TOD had a special emphasis upon religion (in addition to its devotion to theological arguments about the HL plot and the exact timing of Peak Oil).

I know that there are plenty of people here who enjoy boasting about their atheism. My comments about religion are an invitation of these people to argue with me about atheism or religion. I have a special interest in atheism which preceded and transcends my interest in Peak Oil.

I also have an interest in the other great religion of this modern world: The Techno-God and its many adherents which seem to populate websites devoted to technology (and also websites devoted to atheism). Faith in technology appears to have superceded faith in God among these people. Here is a religion which fascinates me.

I believe that there are a lot of people here at TOD who worship the techno-god. I admire their faith and honor their hope. Techno-utopia and scientific immortality are their greatest hopes in life. Seems like a meager religion to me, but that is only because I have a mansion in Heaven built by God Himself. I am looking forward to living in that mansion forever. I hope that it is a really big mansion because undoubtedly I will have a collection of 24 karat gold SUVs in heaven, too.

Who would ever want to live forever on the Earth when it is much better to spend eternity with God in heaven?

David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1

Hello Everyone,

Jay Hanson has written an excellent -- and terrible -- paper. I am certain that he is speaking the truth. I'd prefer a much better outcome to the human experiment, but the last ten thousand years has removed any doubts from my mind regarding the future apocalypse which will overwhelm humankind and send our species to extinction.

Homo sapiens had to make a choice between Heaven and Hell a long time ago. Humankind has chosen Hell. Mourn, mourn for humankind.

The end is approaching and we won't escape from its clutches. I suspect that everyone intuitively senses that the end is fast approaching -- how else to explain this ADHD culture and its emphasis upon doing everything now? -- but the conscious mind rebels from that conclusion just as surely as it reject the notion of personal death.

I will point out one extremely important statement in Jay Hanson's paper:

We include others in our society when it increases our fitness to do so, but we invent excuses to kick minorities out of our society when resources are insufficient. Allies can become enemies almost overnight. The collapse of Yugoslavia is an example of neighbor
slaughtering neighbor.
http://www.warsocialism.com/thermogenecollision.pdf

The process described above is already occurring in American society in two forms:

1. Increasing stress against the Mexican immigrants (both legal and illegal).

2. The Long War against Terror, which is taking the form of a war against the Muslim resource-owners in order to seize their natural resources.

The worst case scenario is already activity occurring on the Earth right now. There is no need to talk any longer about an apocalypse which is coming in the future. The apocalypse is occurring right now. We're living in the apocalypse and fail to notice it because it is occurring at such a large scale that it escapes our attention (which is attuned to noticing only those things which are immediately in front of our own nose).

This world is coming to an end. Civilization is grinding to a halt.

Isn't it a pity?

David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1

Every last one of the dinosaurs died off together at the same time. Altogether they probably whined and worried about it less than you do all by yourself. We're not dead yet. Go smell some roses or something, the rest of us have work to do.

Hello Petropest,

Every last one of the dinosaurs died off together at the same time. Altogether they probably whined and worried about it less than you do all by yourself. We're not dead yet. Go smell some roses or something, the rest of us have work to do.

You want to work. I say that you should stop working. You are trying to save the wrong thing. Whereas you really ought to devote your attention to the job of saving humankind from extinction you would prefer to save your careers, your industry, the automobile, technological civilization, and your personal wealth.

I say that all of these are unworthy goals. The more that you do the worse things must become. You are driving humankind extinct by your success and that is your unconscious evil.

The time to stop is now. It is time to make sacrifices. It is time to learn to live without. There is no hope for tomorrow when so many intelligent people are working so hard at destroying the Earth.

The Earth is already too polluted. The Earth is overpopulated by the human pest. There are billions of people who are already living a hellish existence of impoverishment, deprivement and perpetual violence throughout the world.

We're not dead yet, but there are plenty of people who are dying. Shall we let them continue to die while we count our money? Shall we sacrifice all of these people on behalf of the SUV? Will humankind consent to destroying the entire Earth's coast for the sake of television and the air conditioner?

"There is an appointed time for everything. And there is a time for every event under heaven -- ... A time to search and a time to give up as lost; a time to keep and a time to throw away."
(Proverbs 3:1, 6)

"For what is a species profited if it gains the whole world, and becomes extinct and forfeits its own existence?"
(Luke 9:25)

Humankind's era of working is quickly approaching its end. If humans do not choose to stop Nature will bring our work to an end utilizing its most effective and harsh measures.

Once Homo sapiens become extinct will any of these things matter?

David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1

Your assumptions about me are all wrong. You are a troll. Maybe you should do the earth a favor and go french kiss a sick chicken.

Hello Everyone,

I visited Matt Savinar's website and found this most interesting of articles from the New York Times which suggests that the dissolution of the United States of America is already occurring at a subtle and almost imperceptible level:

California Split

By GAR ALPEROVITZ

Governor Schwarzenegger is quite clear that California is not simply another state. “We are the modern equivalent of the ancient city-states of Athens and Sparta,” he recently declared. “We have the economic strength, we have the population and the technological force of a nation-state.” In his inaugural address, Mr. Schwarzenegger proclaimed, “We are a good and global commonwealth.”

Political rhetoric? Maybe. But California’s governor has also put his finger on a little discussed flaw in America’s constitutional formula. The United States is almost certainly too big to be a meaningful democracy. What does “participatory democracy” mean in a continent? Sooner or later, a profound, probably regional, decentralization of the federal system may be all but inevitable.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/10/opinion/10alperovitz.html

This is exactly the sort of message that I would never expect to read in the New York Times. The inevitability of America's collapse is something which I accepted based upon common sense and historical grounds decades ago. The United States of America is by no means an immortal nation, nor does it merit immortality.

But there was something else in this article which really caught my attention:

If the scale of a country renders it unmanageable, there are two possible responses. One is a breakup of the nation; the other is a radical decentralization of power. More than half of the world’s 200 nations formed as breakaways after 1946. These days, many nations — including Brazil, Britain, Canada, China, France, Italy and Spain, just to name a few — are devolving power to regions in various ways.

Here is a dramatic evidence that the collapse of civilization is occurring right now, right in front of our nose. All of these nations which are breaking apart into smaller nations indicate that civilization is dissolving away. Iraq is the latest example of a country breaking apart, though in Iraq's case the civilization has collapsed because of the aggressive action of an outside force (George W. Bush, liberator of Muslims worldwide, excluding the Saudis).

The story of America's breakup is described:

Regional devolution would most likely be initiated by a very large state with a distinct sense of itself and aspirations greater than Washington can handle. The obvious candidate is California, a state that has the eighth-largest economy in the world.

So we really ought to pay close attention to California. If things really began going bad in the United States -- for any reason -- California might assert its independence from Washington, D.C. How much longer could America exist as a nation after California's seccession from the union?

Vermont has already whispered about secession (http://www.vermontrepublic.org/) but this is just talk. The loss of Vermont would not dissolve the United States. The loss of California, on the other hand, would. California is wealthy and powerful enough to pull this off, too, under any circumstance in which the American federal government has weakened and become ineffective.

The world seems to be coming to its end. Thank God for the end of this world. I look forward to the next world and am willing to wait as many millions of years as it will take for Nature to fix this mess that humankind has created.

David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1

This is what happens when about 80% of the population HATES the current president. Given a reasonable president, this sort of talk would quiet down. Also, the US is a federal system, which means that the states have power too. Historically power has moved away from the states, if they manage to reclaim a little bit, that probably isn't a bad thing. What works best in a central fashion (defense, for instance) should be federal, what works best state by state (say, zoning regulations) should be left to the states. Makes sense to me.

As for the whole "too big to be a democracy...", well, emperical evidence (i.e. the existence of the USA) seems to indicate that this outcome is not "unthinkable." Small minds use "untinkable" to describe that about which they would prefer not to think, doesn't mean it isn't true.

Hello slaphappy,

This is what happens when about 80% of the population HATES the current president. Given a reasonable president, this sort of talk would quiet down.

Here is where you are mistaken, slaphappy. The dissolution of the United States of America is, essentially, a natural force which does not relate in any way to the present political climate in the United States. George W. Bush is unpopular, but America has had unpopular presidents before (Richard Nixon, etc.).

The United States of America will break apart into smaller units at some point in the future. Such is the natural course of events for any excessively large nation (see for example the breakup of Alexander the Great's kingdom, and the dissolution of the Roman Empire).

George W. Bush is just a blip on the screen. California knows that George W. Bush will be gone in two years. Pretty much everyone knows that George W. Bush is a lame duck.

David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1

Wow, dm. Interesting stuff. I agree...this could be shaping up. There were plenty of cries for separation after the last prez election.

I hope my current passport will get me into California when they break off.

Hello Dragonfly41,

If the Terminator leads the Peakoil Revolution: My Asphalt Wonderland will have to be renamed the Asphalt Wasteland--> the first thing CA would do is cutoff the FF flow to Phoenix, Vegas, Tucson, etc. The next step would be to take all the Colorado River's water and electricity by military control of the dams and blowing up the CAP canal and powerlines that serve AZ. Cascadia and Earthmarines look more likely everyday--Yikes!

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Note to self: time to stop posting embarrassing videos of Governator on website.

Hello TODers,

Not to change the subject, but I just wanted to get this upthread so it can be more widely seen:

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FCBDFEC9-30CE-4130-A556-5E41B6951...
------------------------------------------------
Iran bomb attack kills 18 guards

Members of the Revolutionary Guards were the apparent target of the attack [EPA]

Eighteen members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards have been killed after a car bomb hit their bus in southeastern Iran.

Qassem Rezaie, a Revolutionary Guard commander, told Iran's official news agency on Wednesday: "In this thoughtless operation, 18 citizens of Zahedan were martyred."
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Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?