192 comments on DrumBeat: February 19, 2007
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192 comments on DrumBeat: February 19, 2007
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Call me paranoid, but I don't think that it is a coincidence that when I filtered out three posters from Dave's CERA thread, the number of comments dropped by 149, out of 241 (a 62% reduction).
Same result here. I suspected a very small number of individuals had hijacked this site and Greenman's script proved it. Now the question is what will the mavens at TOD-central do...
Moving on-topic... Leanan's link to the ice-sheet melting is very tough reading. Climate scientists have revised the probability of significant damage to 1 in 2. They are soft pedaling the time dimension for the moment, talking in terms of centuries, but the levels of sea-water rise are ominous. I live in Wisconsin, near Lake Michigan. So far the talk has been about coastal flooding, but it seems to me that the Great Lakes would be significantly impacted as well. Am I wrong?
The Great Lakes vary in level by a few feet over a span of decades (I grew up in Michigan). They are hundreds of feet above sea level, so direct impacts of sea level change should be minimal. There would be some amount of thermal expansion, but that might only be a millimeter or two. Changes in precipitation patterns could have a much larger affect.
As to the time dimension, science is a very conservative field. Nobody wants to risk his/her career on being the first one to predict a 50 foot sea level rise by 2050. So the observed pattern is that someone goes out on a limb and predicts a tiny rise over a century, then some other people agree, then someone says it might be an inch or two more, then someone else publishes a paper saying that it might happen by 2040, etc. The concensus advances and converges over time.
Plus, climate scientists are also people who live on this Earth, and this stuff scares the crap out of them.
Plus, climate scientists are also people who live on this Earth, and this stuff scares the crap out of them.
That's good. It scares the sh*t out of me. I have two children and, tough as it is, I've got them reading about P.O., about the GHG's. They are not happy campers. But somehow, someway, we've got to turn this beast around. Eating low on the food chain and peddling bicycles is good for the soul, (we are soulful) but it's not going to be enough. We've got to kick effort into gear.
By-the-by... thanks for that script. You rocked'em yesterday.
Hi, GreenMan. I have been hacking on your script; I hope you don't mind. You can find my version at http://stalkylittleboy.com/todban.user.js - please feel free to incorporate as many or few of the changes into your branch as you'd like. Changes are
I have been hacking on yours too!
http://graphoilogy.googlepages.com/todban.user.js
Changes:
* function "Show users" that open a new window containing a table with the list of posters along with their number of posts and their ban status.
* added TOD:Europe and TOD:Canada
Note: I'am not sure the "Manage Posts" function in the GreaseMonkey plugin is working properly. I suggest you to first remove the script and then restart Firefox before installing the new one.
I have kind of suspected that this is the direction that we are moving myself. There is no sense of urgency in the people - don't want to risk screwing up the economy, don't want to give up the car, can't live without the TV or AC, etc, etc.
I suppose it is depressing, but I guess I am resigned to it. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't try and reduce the amount of carbon we stick in the atmosphere - ultimately we have no choice.
The elevation of Lake Ontario is listed as 246 ft (75 m), so it's hard to see direct effects of even a substantial sea level rise. On the other hand, a substantial sea-level rise would change stream gradients and alter drainage behaviors.
IIRC, the Greenland icesheet has enough water to raise sea-levels by 23 feet, the East Anarctic sheet by 17 feet, and the WEST ANARCTIC BY OVER 200 FEET!!!! When you consider that a glacier doesn't actually need to melt, but rather may be "discharged" when enough melt water accumulates below to grease the skids, you have a conceivable scenario for relatively abrupt, catastrophic coastal flooding. I haven't heard any climate types actually model when an ice sheet (more likely segments) may discharge. I'd wager no one has a handle on it.
Aha... so the real threat isn't someone dropping an ICBM on us, they just plant one in the ice...
How did Tom Clancy miss this one???
Good heavens, do I sound THAT doomerish? Does someone need to give me a dope-slap?
FWIW, I don't think a nuke on ice has enough energy to melt enough water to make a difference. (No, I didn't run the numbers).
Your reply makes me a little queasy; after the recent flood of verbiage pollution likely intended to disrupt/misdirect/discredit TOD, such a flippant remark makes me worry about vandalism (of the thread). I'm not party to this level of discourse. I'll assume you were tongue-in-cheek.
No... you don't sound doomerish.
And no... I most definitely wasn't trying to take the thread into la-la land. Or start a sub-thread on WMD's etc... It was a poor joke. I am sorry.
That would make a good Clancy novel! The primitive types of A-bombs Iran and North Korea are striving for are big and heavy. The first H-bomb wasn't even a bomb, it was a building full of equipment. Assembling them in the middle of “Nowhere” Greenland would mean no pesky neighbors.
Of course, in reality moving all those men and equipment to the middle of the hostile environment of the ice sheet would be impractical. The extreme temperatures would adversely affect everything you did.
Now on the other hand, a half dozen hijacked Russian H-bombs.............
(Just kidding!)
"the East Anarctic sheet by 17 feet, and the WEST ANARCTIC BY OVER 200 FEET". I think you have these two the wrong way around. The West Antarctic ice sheet - the only one of the two which is in remote danger in the foreseeable future - is much the smaller of the two. The East sheet is very high, cold and climatically isolated. Just as well as it makes up most of the continent and is up to 3km thick.
Of course the big danger is the recent discoveries on Greenland of how meltwater percolates down and lubricates the flow at the ice/rock boundary. This was not taken into account in the IPCC report. The consequences for acceleration of melting are not understood, but having regard to the recent increases in measured melting rate, they do not look good. I would admit that I'm not a climate scientist, just a "general" environmental scientist, but I suspect from watching most news items and publications on these things that we are quietly passing some minor "tipping points" without even seeing them.
The scene in "An Inconvenient Truth" of the melted glacier water going into "holes in the ice sheet is my outstanding image of the film. It is obviously an opportunity for something very bad to happen very fast.
I think that the great lakes region will be a good place to whether the proverbial storm. Large reservoirs of fresh water, trade can continue with sailing craft and the climate will get nicer over time.
On the other hand, where I live (the deep south) climate change and peak oil may make the place unlivable. It's getting so hot an dry in the summer a garden dies without irrigation. Then there is the problem of the fire ants. Even with chemical pesticides we can barely keep them under control. My house is build on a slap so they keep coming up threw the floor.
Then there is the whole hurricane problem.......
On a positive note, if the icecaps melt, I will have beach front property.
...and the fire ants will drown.
It is just about impossible to drown fire ants. They come from a region that gets periodically flooded so have a natural adaptation to combat high water. If they weren't such deadly pests they would be really facinating. They link together and form a big raft. It's pretty interesting to watch.
http://bugguide.net/node/view/30113/bgpage?take2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_imported_fire_ant
I have vivid memories of a childhood visit to nana and grandad's house in Pensacola and crawling under a set of saw-horses to play in a nice sand pile with my Tonka toys. I ended up the tub with all of my clothes on.
I had been away from FL for a few years when some years back, I did some work on a mineral sands mine in North FL. The entire place was a sand pile and I had gotten out of the truck to look at something in the distance, without paying any attention to what I was standing in. BIG mistake.
Double Ouch!
A couple years back, a colony decided to move from the west side of the house, to the east side. They did the move at night, and used my living room as a highway. I always go bare foot inside the house and have insomnia........
I have come to really loath the little buggers. It is a constant battle to keep them out of the house. When peak oil hits everyone else will be hording food and fuel, but I will be hording pesticide!!!
If I remember my early '90s undergrad physical geography correctly we should expect lower levels in the Great Lakes as a result of Climate Change. The lakes are a glacial artifact, holding far more water by volume than the watershed/drainage basin warrants. Warmer overall air temps combined with lessened/sporadic rainfall patterns were cited as the reason for the lower lake levels. My rusty recollection says about 1m decline.
The Climate Change Digest used to have worthwhile information:
http://www.cics.uvic.ca/climate/change/ccd.htm
but is now quite dated.
The new site is down at present:
http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/
P
Warmer climate means much more evaporation and precipitation of all kinds, rain, snow, etc somewhere. Whether patterns will change, but nobody can guess to what extent.
I was watched an interesting show (PBS?) on global dimming an the slowing of “pan evaporation”. Evaporation rate have been slowing due to pollution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming
The climate system is so complex and so interlinked, I'm afraid we are going to be completely blindsided by some obscure mechanism.
I'm afraid that's a bit of a mischaracterisation.
While evaporation rates used to be diminishing due to both upper atmosphere pollution and contrails, things are now changing.
Air is getting cleaner (of dimming pollutants).
If you combine this with the fact that due to PO, air traffic may diminish, that will diminish contrail levels as well.
If both of these happen, we run the risk of "double-whammy" as stated by a climate scientist in the document. It will increase the current global warming even more. Even the highest scenario IPCC calculations may be off by an order of magnitude or more.
I know there are already people out there thinking "sheesh! why don't we just burn the dirty coal and pump the air full of pollutants, to keep the dimming effect in full power."
Well guess what, that's exactly what we run the risk of doing with all the new coal capacity coming online in China, India and USA in the next 20 years.
But is this type of detrimental geoengineering a solution or is it a fix with it's own downsides?
That we already know from history. We need only look back to various places in 19th century Britain, 60's Germany, etc. to find out what the effects of this would be on a small scale.
Do the same on the global scale and all bets are off.
BTW, even though the document is speculative, I do recommend it to those interested in climate phenomena and gw.
I do agree with those who are of the opinion that we don't seem to have a single simple solution to PO+GW+plenty of "cheap & dirty" coal+required economic growth combo-dilemma.
Looking out the window I'd say Lake Michigan already has your one meter decline. Or it seems so. Don't know for sure if we're below '64 but it must be close.
Long term the Great Lakes are warmer, drier. There's little snow on the ground now, even well to the north. Some parts of Northern Wisconsin have bare ground. No Spring melt coming, lake levels certain to drop further. The Birkie seems very doubtful this weekend, That skiable snow is unreliable even up in the Lake Superior snowbelt tells much.
I have just installed greasemonkey and looked at the same thread, with precisely the same numeric results... 149 posts hidden. Interesting. (play spooky music)
And best wishes to the TOD administrative team on choosing/constructing a moderation system. Like some others, I believe the Slashdot moderating system has devolved into an enforcement system for the "group think" that pervades that forum. But Slashdot is a fantastic improvement over the wasteland it would be if unmoderated — with millions of readers, they'd be instantly overrun with trolls.
I'm sure moderation will be an ongoing challenge as readership expands. Being one of the D-listers, I'll shut up now and listen.
I personally think killfiles are best for a few reasons.
That said, I think killfiles integrated with Drupal would be better than a GreaseMonkey script, again for a few reasons.
Google shows things that claim to be killfile functionality for Drupal, but I haven't investigated much.
WT,
I installed the grease monkey filter but did not add names. It comes up when opening TOD with -0- comments blocked but there is no freddy, hothgor, or dmathews...did I miss something and where they included right up front? Thread after this is clean too.
Anyone know what is up? Don't get me wrong I like it very much. It feels like TOD of past. Thank you!
D
They were banned, and do not appear in today's DrumBeat. Check yesterday's to see the script go.
Hey thanks!