http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/saving.htm

I posted this link on the open thread yesterday. It's a quarter by quarter bar chart showing US personal savings rate. It went negative in the second quarter of 2005, at the same time that we saw a sharp increase in oil prices, which also corresponded to the--so far--all time peak world crude + condensate production in May, 2005.

So, the average monthly Brent spot price in the 20 months after 5/05 was close to two-thirds higher than the 20 months prior to 5/05 and the US Personal Savings Rate has been negative since about 5/05 (which was the middle of the second quarter).

I'm sure that poorer Americans--and those who are heavily in debt--are getting hit hardest right now. If you are spending more than your income, what do you do?

As Jay Hanson, et al, have pointed out, getting more and bigger stuff is more fun than downsizing. It's no fun to put up a for sale sign and tell your neighbors that you are downsizing to a small two bedroom apartment along a mass transit line, or within walking distance of your job.

Why not hang on? After all, CERA is the acknowledged energy expert group, and they say that we don't have to worry about real oil problems for probably decades. And so it goes, with poorer and more indebted Americans losing their homes now.

There was a pretty interesting discussion on CNBC this morning. The general theme was that the housing bust (relative to mortgage lenders) is going to be limited to the subprime market--kind of the same way that forced energy conservation was limited to regions like Africa last year. As someone has pointed out, "Demand Destruction" is a euphemism for "Death and Conflict."

IMO, it is much later than most of think, and "Demand Destruction" is moving relentlessly up the food chain.

One question: Has anyone who has followed my ELP advice had reason to regret it?

Never having heard of Westexas in 2004, and learning about PO, I sold up in Southern CA, moved to Colorado and did the "ELP" thing with mixed results. Positives: Much healthier, relaxed, and more social lifestyle. Negatives: Family lost interest when the sky did not fall (yet) and missed "the good life".

Personally, I now think the scope of what we are facing is beyond ELP's help. Someone said it well: "Until we change the way money works, nothing else matters". We will remain in servitude as long as our labor and wealth is siphoned away through inflation and taxation.

My advice: ELP is a good thing, but make absolutely sure your family is onboard with how far you are taking it.

Francois, Jeffrey,

Thee is nothing wrong with ELP. There's something wrong with us. We have become, in rapid progression, children of nuclear families. It's the sole reference we have.

In a poorer society, either the ones we had here in the past, or those that exist today all over the world, making decisions such as required by ELP would implicate your family, friends, neighbors, your entire community.

We no longer have communities in that sense. Our decisions have to a much larger degree become individual ones, just as we lead much more individual lives.

The danger in that, is the probability that we will soon become far more reliant, once again, on community life. Individualism is as much a product of our energy surplus as anything else is. The more people have the opportunity to travel between communities, if only on TV, the less they are part of any of them.

So yes, maybe there is a problem with ELP: it's based to a large extent on our notion of ourselves as separate beings, which is not where we came from, nor where we're going. Along with all other measures, we have to learn how to build a community. Which will be hard, as evidenced by the fact that even our own families resist what we see as necessary.

Along with all other measures, we have to learn how to build a community.

I agree. That was one of the interesting things about what Richard Rainwater is doing. He is basically increasing his ability to grow his own food and integrating himself into small town life in the Carolinas.

I was just trying to edit the post, but got an access denied return. You were faster.

What I tried to write is that first, ELP is the best advice out there, and I don't at all mean to criticize, and second, that maybe we can slip in a C for community into the model.

I have suggested before adding an H for humanize, for two reasons. First, many things currently done using fossil fuels are likely to be done by humans in the future. As it takes time to learn the necessary skills, one would do well to begin now. Second, as you say above, human relationships are going to be critically important to getting by with less. As human relationships also take time to cultivate, beginning now would be a good idea from that point of view as well.

I have suggested before adding an H for humanize



HELP


Seems appropriate.

:-)

As I once wrote in a private email to Jeffrey, (back before the TOD comments sections got a much needed enema)I am only 2/3 on board with ELP. My path is EMP. Instead of localizing, I am mobilizing. My issue with localizing is that the next several decades are going to be roiled with not only PO but upheavals in politics and climate. A place that will be excellent in 2015 might be a hell hole in 2020. If one is tied to land, what do you do when the multiyear drought comes?

Throughout history many people have been nomads. Portable wealth and portable skills are another path to survival.

"Throughout history many people have been nomads. Portable wealth and portable skills are another path to survival."

Nomadism is totally not about individuals with "portable wealth and portable skills". Nomadism is tribal and hyper-conservative.

It seems to me that the last thing you want to be when
TSHTF is a stranger in town. You want to be a well-known, trusted local. Someone that people can trust not to just move on when the going gets a bit rough. That's just one step removed from an opportunistic parasite.

Not saying that being mobile isn't a plausible individual survival strategy, but please don't dignify it with the term "nomad".

Some of us are in special circumstances. Traditionally persecuted minorities (religious, ethnic, sexual) do not have a homeland anywhere. However modern outcasts have a archipelago of ghettos to shift through. At the present time, Jews have Israel, but managed to survive for several centuries prior by keeping on the move. If one is a gypsy (Rom) or in a same sex marriage, conditions haven't changed at all. Economic crisis will make traditional scapegoats more vunerable.

The trick is to learn to sense the coming pogrom or witch burning before it starts and pack quickly. I smelled the torches and pitchforks during the 2004 US election campaign, and fled to New Zealand PDQ. As far as mobility goes, a sailboat with a stash of bullion or similar classic lightweight trade goods (loose diamonds, pearls) will take one a lot of places even when the planes are grounded.

MH,

On the one hand, your points are well taken. But my point would be along the lines that the Jews did not survive as individuals, but rather as a very communal entity. Ditto Rom, gays, blacks, etc.

Point being, whether your community is fixed or "nomadic", it seems to me that you clearly want to be a part of a community.

Unless your only goal is individual survival, but that's a whole different story. And if the people you are with sense that your game is your own individual survival, vs. the survival of the community, whatever it may be, well, good luck to you.

Actually, there are problems for a mobile survivor, but they are more of an internal nature. It is the 21st (Sky TV) century almost everywhere, and communitites are rather loose and ephemeral. When the chips are down, people will take care of their immediate family above all else. Cousin John or the old lady next door are low on the list of priorities.

The problem is likely to be the problem faced by the Europeans with resources and foresight who fled Europe in the 1930s. They survived, and prospered, while most of their old friends and neighbors died. No matter how comfortable, many of these folks were haunted by what is called "survivor guilt" for the rest of their days. For many people it might actually be preferable to stay in place wherever they are and suffer the same fate as their friends, even unto death. For my part, I have chosen to risk suvivor guilt.

As much as I like your mobility idea, I can imagine restrictions to travel. Toward maintaining the political and territorial integrity of nation states, I could imagine some kind of system which would specify where you belong and do not belong. This could morph into an actual breakup of large nations like the US into regional centers which might develop their own cultural identities and hostilities to outsiders. Traveling could end up being very hazardous subjecting the traveler to robbery.

I do not pretend to be an expert. I just suspect that much of what we count on, one being freedom of movement, could end up being a scarcity.

consider the dinosaurs, the survivors are the smaller - more mobile ones (i.e. birds).

Humanize can mean a zillion different things, though, you'd spent half an hour just explaining which one you mean. Fro some people it can mean the opposite of what it is to you.

The idea is good, the word is not. Adopt advertising tactics: fast and furious. 10 words or less shpuld convey the message. WT has that down for ELP.

Stoneleigh -

I had been thinking about exactly the same thing - adding an "H" to make HELP.

I was inspired by the song "Rehumanize Yourself" by the Police:

"I work all day in a factory
Building a machine that's not for me
There must be a reason that I can't see
You got to humanize yourself...

Rehumanize yourself
Rehumanize yourself"

etc etc

- from their album "Ghost in the Machine"

I agree with the community part - I think it is perhaps the essential part.

I'm frustrated of late with my attempts to implement the things I know I need to do. It's not that we've made no progress, but not enough, and I feel I'm running out of time. The problem is the job treadmill I'm on now - I'm working more and more at a job I know is not going to last, just so I can maintain the pay and benefits (i.e. health insurance) a bit longer. I'm left with not enough time to make the preparations I know I should be making. I can only imagine how I'll feel if I get burned by the very things I expected to happen but failed to take appropriate action.

It's not easy to get off the ride though - the timing is the hard part. But it's becoming more and more obvious that the job is a losing proposition. I've got plans for another way to support my family, and I've got to get moving - I just hope there is time.

We were a community before Katrina in New Orleans (dysfunctional for sure, but a community). Post-Katrina we have become a much tighter community, and more functional. EVERYONE not flat on their back (and many that are) is doing SOMETHING to help. We each search and find some need to fill.

See my to do list today below.

Best Hopes,

Alan

My recent favorite bumper sticker "New Orleans - We put the Fun into Funeral"

That's what I meant

Did see you list earlier, too. Impressive.

Jeffrey,

Your comments on Richard Rainwater on interesting. I would imagine a billionaire would have trouble integrating into a small community. Kinda like the nice gorilla that asks if it is OK to sit on the sofa. "Sure, You betcha! Can I get you banana? How about a bunch of bananas?" The power and wealth differential is huge. I can't imagine how it would work in the long run.

But I wish him well. If you are accurate, he is on the right track. Money will not inoculate us.

I imagine your sources are personal; if there is a link, can you provide it.

It reminds me of one of early TOD'ers (2005) who moved on. Was it Bubba? He recounted a party he attended by VERY wealthy people. He told them about Peak Oil. They hardly blinked. They wanted to know how to make money from it and clearly were planning to buy their way out of any trouble it might bring.

The Rainwater article in Fortune (December, 2005):

http://www.energybulletin.net/11695.html

The more people have the opportunity to travel between communities, if only on TV, the less they are part of any of them.

It is exactly the feeling that I got, looking around in my own town..

What the heck is ELP?

Economize--Try to live on half or less of your current income

Localize--Minimize the distance between home and work (and/or take mass transit)

Produce--Try to become or work for a provider of essential goods and services

Asebius - thanx for asking - I googled and kept getting Emerson, Lake, and Palmer... ;-)

westexas's ELP is his own creation. His advice to all to prepare for whatever comes down the pipe (or doesn't come down the pipe).

Francois said:

We will remain in servitude as long as our labor and wealth is siphoned away through inflation and taxation.

What would be your situation if there were no government to tax you? Who would supply the roads, water, and police? Who would enforce standards of quality and safety? How would exchange be handled?

These questions are the ones with which i torment myself when I too resent the government stealing part of my income. I have seen in third world countries the result of impoverished governments, and have read about the dire circumstances of people living with no government.

There is a difference between fair taxation (say at the local level for schools, etc, or gasoline tax for roads), and taxing the US population for things such as bloated federal government, wars that benefit the corporate industrialist, and spending the huge social security and medicare surplusses of the past on pork.

And stealth taxes (i.e. through inflation) is totaly immoral in my opinion. During the 19th century we had a money system that had NO (zilch) inflation over 100 years. You could buy in 1900 for a dollar what you could in 1800. So when Cheney says "deficits dont matter", what he means is that the goverment can spend whatever it wants, and send the taxpayers the bill by merely monetizing the deficits - i.e. spreading the cost of the new money over the existing monetary base. And what makes this worse is that the central banks co-ordinate their currency support such that e.g. when America runs a deficit, the bank of Japan prints Yen to buy dollars. All this means is that the cost of our deficits are also carried by the Japanese, and the Europeans, etc.

You got me started!

Francois.

elp..
just choose wisely which company you move close too. not many of them will make it..

I probably should ask a more general question: Has anyone who has voluntarily downsized had reason to regret it?

I sold my car about a year ago. I haven't regretted it at all. I may be cheating because my girlfriend has a car, and we can get anywhere we want using it. I take mass-transit to work, but I was doing that before anyway because the cost of parking downtown is horrendous. I enjoy not worrying about having to bring my car in for oil changes anymore. The rare time I do need a car I either rent one or use flexcar.

actually west Texas. i would like from you a nice list of what company's you think will survive the sea-change in the rules of the game we call civilization imposed by nature because the 'localize' part of your plan involves chaining yourself to one employer. so really doing so without knowing how long said employer will stay alive and kicking is foolish.
of course people like you who are old(50+) and have built up a nice nest egg don't need to worry about silly stuff like this because your no longer in your mid 20's, poor(despite the fact i am one of the few people here in America with a positive savings account), and basicly a wage slave with no land or enough money to get it.

I'll try to post something today or this weekend, but in general my advice has been: "Cut thy spending and get thee to the non-discretionary side of the economy."

In regard to the generational question, I'll have to paraphrase, but Jim Kunstler said that the younger generation(s) are going to tell the Baby Boomers that they screwed things up royally (Social Security comes to mind), so crawl off and die.

I'm still working on ELP, but so far so good. Some more money in the bank, already live close to the job, was tilling dirt in the veggie garden last weekend. Unfortunately the angling is very low now.

Finally got my woodstove installed yesterday!

Westexas,

I was writing a long response to your ELP question, but it just became too verbose.

The short answer is that I have been working toward the ELP scenario for about 5 years now. However, your posts, and the those of the TOD Contributors, have made me decide to "kick it up a notch". The solar water heater will go in this year, as will the bigger garden and edible lanscape.

Mathew Simmons recent admission that we are at peak now was the nail in the coffin, for me.

We will not know who is right about the "peak" date, until after it happens. And thats the point. Once everyone knows, then it will too late to prepare as effectively.

This issue is just too important to chance.

The biggest and best change I made to my life was to be debt free. The most important was to not have kids. (Too many kids without Dad's out there)

Just about everything I do hinges on the possibility of gas at 5-7 dollars a gallon, electric being .25 cent a kwh, and bread being 5 bucks a loaf.

Preperation removes most of the anxiety. I sleep great and enjoy life!

Don't make a wish list, make a work list.

Hello Westexas.

ELP?

Not yet. But school is finally out this summer and ELP is very much under discussion and within a two year time frame.

Your main point:

''As Jay Hanson, et al, have pointed out, getting more and bigger stuff is more fun than downsizing. It's no fun to put up a for sale sign and tell your neighbors that you are downsizing to a small two bedroom apartment along a mass transit line, or within walking distance of your job.''

Why is this?

For the first two hundred years of the Industrial revolution, Society was governed and controlled by.

Knowing your place
Religion
Obtaining needs , rather than wants. (Family food bills routinely took up 50% of a working man's wages)

Ways up and ways out for about 80 % of the population were entirely dependent upon self education in such places as Mechanics Institutes, common in northern industrial cities. This took enormous self discipline, try finishing a 12 hour shift in a cotton mill and then turning up for two hours tuition in mechanics.

The last fifty years has been an out-of-school party for the West.
Automotive freedom has enabled the discipline of proximity to wages, family to disappear and dormer towns, distance from other schoolkids, distance from real daily life to flourish. JHK says it all better than anyone.

In the West, peer group pressure for more goods and a 'lifestyle' at all age groups in society has displaced thinking and learning at all levels, but it has hit hardest in the hapless western working class. Adverts,MSM, Corporatisation have all played a part. A part more akin to a drug dealer than any pillar of society.

Where do you go after a life of 'bigger, better, faster' and ' I want it and I want it now' ?

People cannot fall back into them selves. They have no internal resources such as the ability to think, reason, self entertain, discuss, debate. They were never allowed to!

I am always struck by the powers of reasoning, articulation, vocabulary and knowledge displayed in informal letters by relatively 'uneducated' people from about a hundred years past. Pick any such book up say,concerning letters home from the Somme, Paschendale, The ACW or any political pamphlet and you will quickly see the difference.

In a world where the posession of objects takes precedence over posession of knowledge then ELP is heretical thought to almost any western adult. Independent thought is not at a premium in a world which requires conformation. That is why western schools have been failing youth for the last 30 odd years. Who needs thinkers in a world requiring drones and cubicle dwellers?

It will not be possible for most people to respond to ELP in any rational way. It is outside their highly conditioned world view. People know of no other way. It is not their fault: They have been trained by the system since birth. Welcome to the Machine. Thirty years of advanced psychological conditioning sucks independent thought out most humans. The system has done a good job.

All you can do is quietly inform those you think capable of listening and then hope they work it out for themselves.

Very well put, excellent observation on the Somme, ACW etc...

I call it "Bread and Circuses" syndrome, feed 'em and entertain 'em and they will march to oblivion without ever cluing in...

Agreed, and a rather similar argument to John Michael Greer's Magical Thinking article linked above:

Peak oil is a case in point. What happens when world petroleum production begins to decline, as it will most likely do in the next few years, has very little to do with physical questions. The forces that will take the lead in the opening phases of the deindustrial age will be political, cultural, and psychological, not physical.
...
Since this latter problem could not be solved by “the engineer’s outlook and the scientist’s methods,” in turn, it has not been solved at all. This is the downside of the superlative technological efficiency of our age: those things we can’t do with our machines, or with ways of thinking that evolved to manage our machines, we can’t do at all. Thus discussions of how to respond to peak oil, when these have not simply been exercises in denial or Utopian fantasy, have tended to focus on finding ways to redefine the issues in technical terms so they can be dealt with by technical methods.

To my great surprise, studying up on peak oil has transitioned from a technical journey into more of a spiritual one. Before now I never realized how small the box I lived in really was...

Wow. Very well put. My compliments to you.

I have some letters from over a 100 years ago. I have always been struck by the penmenship in them.

As for ELP. A minor success or two to report. I just moved into my new condo. I bought one with the thought in mind of what I could afford on half my salary. I'm sure my realtor and mortgage broker thought I was crazy. What I am really happy about is that I think I finally broke the addiction to cable tv. Moving in was the perfect chance to follow up on what I had been threatening for years, to do away with cable. I have broadband internet but no cable! Break out the books!

I generally agree with the above assessment for the US, but I would never have written the above about New Orleanians. We have our own unique dysfunctions but it is hard to formulate them in contrast to your post. Something to ponder.

In a number of neighborhood planning sessions post-Katrina, I had zero pushback to the concept (as I formulated it) that" we have seen just the first breezes of a coming oil price storm". Several times I was asked in neighborhood meetings by working class blacks about the price of electricity (in the future) for streetcars vs. diesel for buses. A very valid concern that also shows a level of critical thinking and analytical ability.

Best Hopes for New Orleans,

Alan

From Smirking Chimp:

On Friday, the government reported that net capital inflows reversed from the requisite $70 billion to AN OUTFLOW OF $11 BILLION!

There are lots of numbers there, but no citations of primary sources, so I'm a bit skeptical. Still.... it is what I've expected for some time. The tip will be fast as the financial community jumps on the wagon. If indeed this is happening.

cfm in Gray, ME

Could the negative savings rate be due to changing demographics? More retirees means less going into savings and more coming out. It may be decades before savings rate improves.