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206 comments on DrumBeat: February 23, 2007

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ggg71 on February 23, 2007 - 5:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You continuously point to the US and the North Sea as examples of where HL happened exactly as expected, so thus HL should be used as the guiding model for everywhere. But both the US and Great Britain have had stable political climates, and a system of capitalism throughout their Oil producing life cycles. I would argue that those are both prerequisites for HL to work correctly.

The same can not be said for Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia, as well as countries in Africa. Iraq is a battlefield, certainly not the best environment to see a good HL plot. Russia has only recently recovered from the fall of the USSR. Iran is under UN sanctions I believe. Saudi Arabia is a kingdom.

The bottom line is HL is a capitalistic model of oil field development. The world just doesn't fit that model cleanly.

I don't disagree with you that we are at or near peak...but there are a lot of political reasons for that.

Geologically, (if there were no political boundaries and plenty of capital available for development) I think we could probably get to 100mbd. But that's really a moot point not worth arguing. What we're gonna get is a relatively (10 years?) long plateau and then a decline.

At least that's my take.

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PeakPlus on February 23, 2007 - 6:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Although I would say that you're right that the bell-shaped curve of the Hubbert curve does not fit every region, an HL-plot certainly seems to work.

The reason why the US-48 is used as an example is because it was developed gradually - fits the hubbert curve almost exactly. The reason why the UK is used is because it is a two-humped camel, not fitting the curve at all. Just like Russia and Saudi Arabia, for instance. EVEN THEN the HL method worked. It won't be long til Saudi Arabia replaces the UK as HL's second prime example...

I'm still not sure when to listen to a dog leg or not, or where the line should be drawn..

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alan on February 23, 2007 - 10:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Speaking of dog legs, I see one in this post by Euan Mearns yesterday

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2283#comment-162318

Another case of HL producing a false alarm with the real peak following ~10 years later. If Saudi Arabia follows the same pattern it should begin its involutary decline around 2015.

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TrueKaiser on February 24, 2007 - 1:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

now does that nice little post take into account the cooking of the books in the 80's where S.A.'s reserves doubled literally overnight with no physical proof of it?
this is something westexas's estimates using HL take this little fact into account and has been proven right so far.

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Rethin on February 24, 2007 - 9:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Freddy weren't you banned?

Do you think no one notices your sockpupet?

At least learn to capitolize, that would make your posts a little different.

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westexas on February 24, 2007 - 12:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The change in inflection on the data set right before 1999 was the same pattern that we saw right before the Texas, Lower 48 and Saudi declines.

In any case, rather than arguing hypotheticals, why not argue actually predictions?

As Deffeyes predicted, world crude oil production is declining (EIA).

As I predicted, Saudi crude oil production is declining.

As Khebab predicted, Mexican crude oil production is declining.

What is really bizarre about this whole "debate" is the ongoing attacks on the HL method even as region after region start declining, as predicted.

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DelusionaL on February 23, 2007 - 7:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Here is the best information I have seen to date on what you talk about. This was done by Khebab, cover what fits and what doesn't fit very well in respect to HL. Worth the time to look at has 30+ charts from around world.

http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/

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ggg71 on February 24, 2007 - 11:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thank you.

The bottom line is HL can be a good indicator, but is not always the gospel. Oil producing regions can be throttled back, improperly developed, mismanaged, or even destroyed (natural disasters, hurricanes). Saudi Arabia would have the biggest financial incentive of anybody to do this, and as a Kingdom they are much more capable of pulling it off then in a capitalist society where monopolies are illegal.

Sometimes I wonder if there's room for any shades of grey at TOD.

For the record, I will state that it is possible Saudi Arabia really is over the hump and is now in massive decline. Or they could be throttling back to protect the price of oil. No one outside of a few people knows for sure. We watch and wait.

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westexas on February 24, 2007 - 12:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Actually, I think that whether one is a communist, capitalist, socialist or Paris Hilton worshiper has little to do with the peak. The big fields are found first. The overall decline sets in when the decline in the big fields can't be overcome.

I am really using the Lower 48 and the North Seas as best case histories for the post-peak decline rate.

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Oilrig medic on February 24, 2007 - 11:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Paris Hilton worshiper" WT, great shout out for our great pal Oil CEO. Can we get him Unbanned? I miss him. I can get him to behave I swear.

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206 comments on DrumBeat: February 23, 2007

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