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166 comments on DrumBeat: February 27, 2007

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Darwinian on February 27, 2007 - 9:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Richlev, I am having trouble finding that figure of 8.42 mb/d. On both pages 13 and 14 I am getting the figure of 8.8 mb/d for December and no figures for January. Am I looking in the right place? Or am I using the wrong URL?

http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/13feb07full.pdf

Ron Patterson

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Calorie on February 27, 2007 - 9:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ron, see Table 3 on Page 46 of

http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf

If you search for "Saudi" in that document, you will also see references to 8.7 mbd for December 2006 and January 2007. Go Figure.

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Darwinian on February 27, 2007 - 10:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Calorie, thanks a million. This clears it up. I was accessing the archives copy. That copy is dated Feb 13, and apparently there have been some changes since then.

As for the different figures in different places, I think the lower figure is crude oil only and the higher figure is all liquids.

Thanks again

Ron Patterson

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manmax on February 27, 2007 - 2:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm sorry to repost that, but I think it may interest somebody.

This is the hypothetical Saudi decline, following a 8% decline rate since 9/05:

9/05 (0% decline): 9,5 mbpd
11/06 (9,34%): 8,6127
2/07 (11,34%): 8,4227
3/07 (12%): 8,36
4/07 (12,67%): 8,29635
5/07 (13,34%): 8,2327
6/07 (14%): 8,17
7/07-(14,67%): 8,10635
8/07-(15,34%): 8,0427
9/07-(16%): 7,98

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manmax on February 27, 2007 - 2:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm sorry to repost that, but I think it may interest somebody.

This is the hypothetical Saudi decline, following a 8% decline rate since 9/05:

9/05
9,5 mbpd (0% decline)
11/06 8,6127 (9,34%)
2/07 8,4227 (11,34%)
3/07 8,36 (12%)
4/07 8,29635 (12,67%)
5/07 8,2327 (13,34%)
6/07 8,17 (14%)
7/07 8,10635 (14,67%)
8/07 8,0427 (15,34%)
9/07 7,98 (16%)

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Darwinian on February 27, 2007 - 2:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Manmax, I do not think anyone expects Saudi to continue to decline at 8%. I think their existing giant fields are indeed declining at a rate of 8% but they are bringing some new oil on line. But the argument is, at least my argument is, this new oil will not make up for the decline in their old giant fields. They will decline, in my opinion, every year for many years, but not necessarly by 8%.

Ron Patterson

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manmax on February 27, 2007 - 3:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I understand, it was just a guideline to follow the numbers of the Saudi production, in order to know how far they are from a 8% decline.

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