Reserves are one thing, oil/cash flow another.

Here is how my theory goes -

1. Kuwait is on par with Saudi Arabia in terms of its American connection - without KSA's Mecca hole card
2. After Iraq's invasion. Kuwait's infrastructure was rebuilt - and the people doing the rebuilding certainly had a longer term perspective than just the next quarterly report (remember, Bush I was in charge - and just by coincidence, a second Bush is now in charge, courtesy of several Bush I Supreme Court appointees).
3. According to international law, you just can't invade and steal a nation's resources - not that Bush II cares that much about laws, as we've seen, but there are still some constraints - notice the unsuccessful Chavez regime change.
4. After having overbuilt Kuwait's exporting infrastructure while no one was really paying attention, pointing out that the Iraqis are to blame for a drop in their exports is simple, as it certainly contains an element of truth.
5. Everybody except the Iraqis splits the cash, and drives off into the sunset. The invisible hand at work.

Actually, this is the sort of theory which could be proven to a degree - there are enough physical elements which can be checked. For example, if Kuwait had facilities to load 4 tankers a day before the Iraqi invasion, and they were rebuilt with the capacity to load 8 afterwards - or if the tanker loads from Kuwait increased measurably after the U.S. invasion. Or rig activity on the border between the two countries.

This also leads to a certain amount of speculation about reserves - perhaps the Kuwaitis were also counting on an oil bonanza to allow them to keep up the pretense that their reserves were still large, with production to match. But then, the amount of Iraqi oil to plunder was less than planned on - reality seems to be a real weak point in much of the Bush League's planning, in my opinion (ah, roses - the smell of victory). This information would be much harder to confirm, obviously.