<DrumBeat: March 6, 2007 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: March 7, 2007>

36 comments on A Simple Oil Production Estimate for 2007

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jkissing on March 6, 2007 - 12:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

imo, total liquids should be corrected down to account for ethanol's reduced btu's... the slight upward tilt would become a slight downward one, with last year's total reduced around 300k/d.

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gtjeffers on March 6, 2007 - 4:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That would make sense, if the data was being presented as BTU's. One would also have to adjust NGPL's, as they contain less BTU's per unit of volume (depending upon their makeup).

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Phil Hart on March 6, 2007 - 5:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

if we lived in a perfect world, we might also adjust ethanol volumes for poor EROEI. all useful factors to bear in mind.

although i certainly don't think ethanol will save us, it will probably provide a positive increment in total liquids this year (+ ~200 kb/d?). along with NGLs which are also growing rapidly, that will help to offset declining crude oil and condensate production and may prevent total liquids from declining for another year or two.

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SailDog on March 6, 2007 - 6:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This subject gets into EROEI territory and we have been here before. I personally look at IEA total liquids, less biofuels and syncrude from tar sands, which I estimate at 1.6 mbpd. The historical production data is poor on the last item, if anybody has it, it may add a little to the discussion.

Total production without biofuels and syncrude from tar included has been flat for 2005 and 2006, any differences recorded falling well within margins of error. Given the change in import/export mix (US, China, Europe etc up, many others must be down) for millions of people in the world peak oil is already a daily reality.

There is so much to this story that is unreported and to which the rich world is deaf.

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36 comments on A Simple Oil Production Estimate for 2007

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