The Oil Drum | A Simple Oil Production Estimate for 2007

36 comments on A Simple Oil Production Estimate for 2007

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Phil Hart on March 6, 2007 - 4:56pm

thanks.

yes, despite the poor quality of data, i am personally convinced that production from Ghawar and Saudi production as a whole is in decline and that last year's slope was not by choice.

when i present to 'professional' audiences though, i am less bold since the evidence is not robust enough for sceptical audiences. i cannot believe we will get through another twelve months without a strong need for more Saudi oil and therefore expose far more clearly whether they have it or not.

i agree that Mexico could easily be worse than my estimate (but then i also saw a report saying their production was up in January, which will presumably be short lived?).

Russia really is the big one - it seems everything hinges on them now. They have continued expanding production longer than I expected - right up to the end of last year. Even if they decline from their December production, their average will probably match last year. But there is not yet any evidence that they are declining.. how much longer can they last?

cheers
Phil.

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westexas on March 6, 2007 - 5:28pm

Khebab did a predicted production curve for Russia, based on the HL plot, using only the data through the 50% of Qt mark (1984) to generate the curve.

The post-1984 cumulative production, through 2004, was 95% of what the HL model predicted--still below the predicted cumulative production.

They are basically right around 100% now, so I expect to see a decline this year, or next year at the latest. The kicker is that, based on the HL plot, Russia is around 90% depleted (at least in mature basins), just like the Lower 48.

BTW, the Saudi decline rate, on an annual basis (not month to month), is so far quite close to the annual decline rate for Texas (around 4%).

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36 comments on A Simple Oil Production Estimate for 2007

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