thanks.

yes, despite the poor quality of data, i am personally convinced that production from Ghawar and Saudi production as a whole is in decline and that last year's slope was not by choice.

when i present to 'professional' audiences though, i am less bold since the evidence is not robust enough for sceptical audiences. i cannot believe we will get through another twelve months without a strong need for more Saudi oil and therefore expose far more clearly whether they have it or not.

i agree that Mexico could easily be worse than my estimate (but then i also saw a report saying their production was up in January, which will presumably be short lived?).

Russia really is the big one - it seems everything hinges on them now. They have continued expanding production longer than I expected - right up to the end of last year. Even if they decline from their December production, their average will probably match last year. But there is not yet any evidence that they are declining.. how much longer can they last?

cheers
Phil.