108 comments on Nigeria: Energy Infrastructure Firestorm
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I'd certainly say so. On a more grand scale, mineral wealth has traditionally been concentrated in the hands of a few, but now advances in the kind of technology and organization available to insurgents is pushing hard for a more even distribution of that wealth.
An even distribution of Nigeria's oil wealth could have a huge impact on the daily lives of the average person, but no one would get rich--and it is the incentive riches, not the desire to ensure potable water and a full belly for all, that drives economic activity. Nigeria only produces 0.017 barrels of oil per person (130 million population) per day. At current prices, that's almost a dollar a day, which is huge in the developing world, but fundamentally at odds with the non-negotiable requirements of the existing elite.
In US terms, I've put it this way--everything is great for US energy producers until the angry soccer moms start rioting at the gates of the mansions of the energy producers.
I somehow don't find it very comforting that we are already seeing widespread scavenging for copper wire--in this "great" economy in the US.
I think that the copper-wire phenomenon is particularly scary for people in the US who may be tempted to think "this can't happen here." One of the organizations that I work with is the BPA (Bonneville Power Administration, responsible for large parts of the electrical grid in the Pacific Northwest). They are now experiencing significant numbers of "attacks" on their transmission lines--not with the intent of denying electrical power, but with the intent of cutting and then driving away with several hundred yards of operational power line at a time. This, at least in my estimation, is a serious step up from the simple theft of scrap copper laying in a yard somewhere--it demonstrates an elevated willingness to commit a serious crime for a moderate economic gain. And this is happening in the US, not just Nigeria. I don't know how bad the economic situation needs to get in the US to really catalyze this kind of action, but as you mention, if the soccer moms can't afford gas for their Suburbans, that will probably suffice...
This is an example of the "positive feedback loops" I mentioned on the other thread.
Jeff,
I'm curious if you don't mind mentioning it: where do you live? What do you think that area's propsects are? And, if the prospects are poor, are you planning to relocate?
I think an individual's geographic location will be responsible for 80% plus of how this plays out for them.
I live in the Denver area. I think the prospects are mixed--we have huge issues with suburban sprawl, but at the same time we are the hub of significant regional natural gas coal-bed methane, and coal reserves, so that will help sustain the economy. Denver is also a leader in electric light rail, with a major ballot measure recently passed to build a huge expansion onto an already fair system. I live within walking distance of a light rail station--stress-free commuting, and perhaps more importantly, this may help sustain my house value.
I do plan to relocate, eventually, but will probably do it in the form of building a highly-sustainable vacation home in the near future and gradually transitioning...
The question we (or at least many of us) are asking. Where to live?
One idea I think that might make some sense is the 40 acre survival plan. Buy 40 acres of farmland, perhaps with a joint venture group, 10 or so other people, close to a town. In the short term, you could at least lease it out to an organic farmer.
Longer term, you might think about moving there. If nothing else, you could move a very small prefab energy efficient home on to the site.
At least it would keep some farmland out of the hands of real estate developers. . .
One idea that some of you might pursue is to get an option to buy some farmland, and then get nine people to pay 100% of the cost of the property (you would get carried for 10% of the cost of the deal, in exchange for organizing it).
You could try to be more aggressive and do a deal where you get carried for 25% of the cost, perhaps with three people paying one-third each. You would of course need some detailed agreements, with buy/sell provisions, etc.
Edit: For confused people (like me), I think that all references to "Jeff" refer to the author of the article.
"Where to live" seems to involve at least the following: water supply, energy supply (as necessary given climate), food supply, local community. One of my favorite topics to write about is the theory of sustainable communities because I know that the feedback I receive will be highly personally appicable. Here are two posts that I've written that will guide much of my own transition to a more sustainable life:
Envisioning a Hamlet Economy
Creating Resiliency & Stability in Horticulture
Good chance that I will throw conventional wisdom out the window and choose a piece of the Sonoran desert as my location... There are obvious problems, but I think also some great advantages.
J,
I have your hamlet economy post saved in my favorites file, fwiw.
I would add to your criteria:
1. away from nuclear targets
2. away from fall out patern
3. low population density
4. isolated
Some people will likely argue #4, but reference the "law of attraction." If your place is well-prepped in any significant way it will simply attract people and the capacity of the area will be overtaxed and fall into as much chaos as whatever area the people fled from. Thus, it has to be isolated for there to a chance that it will remain a pocket of reciprocal altruism.
Trying to find a place that has all of these features is not easy, particularly if you have to maintain a foot in the petroleum economy.
I couldn't agree more with the criteria here. Stay away from anything related to the military, stay away from cities with populations over 100,000 and get as far west as possible to take advantage of prevailing winds.
My personal recommendation is Oregon.
http://www.survivalring.org/nuclearsurvival/states/or.htm
As you can see from the map, there are large amounts of targets to the north and a few scattered along its southern border, leaving a large chunk of green grass in the middle. Also, further down the page is a map of fallout patterns. Oregon is the only state projected to have zero exposure to fallout. While I'm sure there will be fallout no matter where you are in the States at the time of a nuclear attack, it sure would be better to place all of your chips on Oregon rather than anywhere else.
http://4umi.com/image/map/America_at_night.jpg
Be smart guys. Head west.
Hello Tylerhavlin,
If you read my earlier speculative postings on Earthmarines: you can expect 50 million or more Southwesterners and Mexicans headed along the Oregon Trail shortly. I suggest you and most of Cascadia look into legal Secession, the building of large, contiguous biosolar habitats, and protective local militias [Earthmarines]. Otherwise, expect to be overrun with refugees like South Africa is currently experiencing from Zimbabwe and other countries.
Is Grants Pass, Oregon the best location to replay the American version of the strategic battle of Thermoplyae?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grants_Pass,_Oregon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_thermopylae
I have never been to Oregon, so you may have a better idea of where to make your final stand postPeak. I hope you have a better outcome than the Greek Spartan 300.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Oregon is a great place for Ducks and Beavers - and frogs, lot's and lots of water. Best place to be...hmmm. I'm not so sure, could be that after it gets posted here and elsewhere a billion times you might be living in the better spot.
Find where Bush is going to hide (like Paraguay) Maybe he needs a drinking buddy.-)
I grew up in remote mountains a little northwest of Grants Pass, a favorite for survivalists. It's horrible. I really can't tell you how dismal the chances are here for the future.....no one even consider moving here....please....
I floated the idea of secession to my undergrad class here in Corvallis, OR last week and was met with loud cheers. 2010 will be the year ladies and gentlemen. Mark your calendars and load your wagons.
Hello Seth,
Thxs for responding. Good for Cascadia and/or the Jeffersonian State! The sooner you get your community and or state started towards Secession--the better your chances for long-run sustainability. The more Peakoil Outreach permeates your area, the greater the chance for widespread preparation. Maybe far NORCAL, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska can sufficiently prepare to pre-emptively hold off the invasion of the Southern hordes-- you won't have to replay a desperate battle of Thermoplyae.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia
http://www.jeffersonstate.com/
For Easterners:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermont_Republic
http://www.vermontrepublic.org/
In the years I have been googling orgs such as those above: it is remarkable to see the exponential growth. I fully expect the Patriot Act to eventually declare State's Right to Constitutional Secession as illegal if the topdogs true desire is to force globalization and Detritus MPP to the energetic extreme with NA SuperNafta. IMO, it would be better to let various geographies decentralize along the lines of watershed flows. Recall that the Hirsch Report calls for fifteen favored Detritus States-- maybe the other States will be given free rein to become the Biosolar States. My speculative WAG.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
"I fully expect the Patriot Act to eventually declare State's Right to Constitutional Secession as illegal "
Ummm, sorry Bob, secession has been illegal here since 1865.
Hello Wehappyfew,
Thxs for responding. I am not a Constitutional Scholar, but I believe Secession is still legal. The question is if the Union will let a State go its separate way, or by force of arms cause reunification, ala Pres. Lincoln.
http://civilwar.bluegrass.net/secessioncrisis/890304.html
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Jeff V. You might want to contact me with regards to that aspect of your thinking. I live about 80 miles east of the Sonoran Desert, on 40 acres at 4700ft elevation, that my kid doesn't want, and by the time TSHTF I'll be so old I won't want it either.
My take on relocation: stay put and try to put down roots. Or move back to some place where you already have roots. I think in the times to come community will have ever greater value. To think only of optimizing conditions as opposed to building community is, I think, a mistake.
Community will be VERY important.
But if your city is nuked, right in the path of fallout, or likely to be overrun by economic/climate refugees community will mean jack squat.
See New Orleans, Baghdad, Detroit circa 2007 for cities that have fallen prey to "the long emergency" or Hiroshima circa 1947. Geography is the #1 determinant of how this will play out for you.
After geography, then community.
Hi Westexas,
In the course of reading yours and Robert's thoughtful 'A Debate on the Substance and Timing of the Peak of Oil Production and Consumption' noticed in one of his current posts he mentioned that he was 'preparing for P.O.' and now here you have mentioned preparations for P.O. I think this is a subject many are interested in.
Do you think it might be time for some lead article to reflect that issue, unless it's been done to death already?
There is a wide spectrum here, not just basic survival items but the financial transition strategies involved. Especially in the event of an 'economic crash' style transition. You know financial info like "How to Turn Paper Money into Toilet Rolls"
I would like to know what everyone else plans and am more than willing to reciprocate.
Jeff,
You have no chance of surviving should you stay in Denver, in my honest and semi-informed opinion.
Seriously.
Denver = first strike nuclear attack target along with Seattle and San Diego due to the extremely high military value of these places
I presume, given your background, you are familiar with why. FEMA map of nuclear targets from about 10 years ago:
http://www.ki4u.com/nuclearsurvival/states/co.htm
If you have information/analysis as to why I'm wrong or off the beaten path I would very much like to hear it, if possible.
5. Publish the location of your shelter on the web.
DIYer,
My guess is less than 500 people globally (and more like less than 50) will actually relocate in response to anything they read on any of the PO boards.
People will use these boards primarily either to dickwave or rationalize decisions they have already made.
Having said that I'm not going to proclaim to the world my location once I decide upon it.
Oh, that comment wasn't about you. It was about the 'ki4u' guy, whose dickwaving website is even more eyegougingly ugly than yours.
SO, there ya go. A compliment.
... I've been drinking in between the last post and this ...
Eyegouginly ugly? Come on now. I think I've got the "mad max chic" thing down pretty well.
Also, I didn't think your comment was about me. Just commenting that I think the need "to keep your retreat location secret on the boards" thing is a bit (but not totally overblown).
The much greater risk would be announcing it in the local paper. Then you'll end up like they did in that episdoe of the Twilight Zone where the whole neighobhood tries to get in the guy's shelter.
Hey, we just watched that TZ a few nights ago. My husband kept screaming to change the channel. He didn't want to watch it because we both envision the future looking like that. Can't handle too much reality...
I am perfectly happy to live in Sweden.
My problem is how to turn technological know how and environmental and peak oil insights into a job. Making politics out of them is doable but that is not a part of our society filled with milk and honey. On the other hand that is probably one of the reasons I plan to stay put.
The next realy big project in my municipiality Linköping after the hockey arena will be a new train station built for three times todays train travel. It will also have berthing for about a dozen busses, lots of taxis, car parking, probably about 2000 indoor parking spaces for bicycles and preparations to in the future handle trolley buses, tram lines and track taxi if that SciFi technology starts to work. It is being planned for an optimistic travel prognosis for 2030 with some room for future growth beyond that. It will be built to last for +100 years as the old train station has been in use for more then 100 years. It will be combined with some kind of mall and office space. Its very intresting to attract private capital to add to the investment and to make the station a very attractive part of the town center.
Out closest large neighbour Norrköping who also is an about 130000 pop municipiality is planning for the same kind of investment. There will probably be an architect competition for both of the train stations with a request to make them into a symbol of our cooperation. Hopefully this will be intresting enough to attract international architect firms.
The major driving force for this investment is a planned new
high speed railway line to Stockholm that then will be extended to Gothemburg, Swedens second largest city. This old railway tracks will be used for cargo and local passanger trafic. The complete system will essentially be quadrouple track and the prognosis is that it will be full of traffic in about 2030.
The only other new local investment I have heard about in recent months is a proposed plastic to diesle pilot plant. About 6% of the local wehicle fuel use is biogas and the ethanol plant in Norrköping is being enlarged and has recently gotten a biogas plant to turn distillers grain into biogas.
On a national level there seems to be a reorientation of heavy infrastructure investments to maintainance of roads and railways. This pleases me a lot but we realy ought to do both while we can afford it. Sweden has been one of the driving forces behind the EU decision to limit CO2 emissions by 20% to 2020 and we have pledged 30% if that can be made into a world wide agreement. The focus is on greenhouse gases and not peak oil buit that is ok for me when it gives substantial investments that are useful for the long term.
I would have counted this as a major "plus" in my own anaylsis a few years ago. It still is in the early days of the unraveling, say when gas is avalable but at $4.50 a gallon. However, once the overlapping positive feedback loops start in motion I don't think it will be but a few years (maybe 10-15 absolutely tops) until the fuel and other commodities necessary to keep complex system like light rail are no longer available.
I don't claim to understand exactly how Peak Oil will unfold, but I agree that there seems to be a good chance that at some point light rail won't cut it anymore. However, I do think that it is likely to be a big plus in the initial transition period--which is good enough for my purposes. Likewise, I agree that Denver is the last place one wants to be during a nuclear strike (at least a strike from a major state actor like China or Russia), but I don't think that's very likely in the next few years...
to keep complex system like light rail are no longer available.
Assuming present population density not much will make it, or so it seems. But if excess capacity exists beyond converting photons to food and photons to electricity for water pumping, lighting, refrigeration, and communication then electrified rail as a way to move people and material will still exist. Electrified rail was about in early part of the 20th century. Having machine tools that can make good, repeatable, high tolerance parts was done back when paper tape was the transport medium of the day and an 8 bit processor was high end.
In a series of 'nuke strikes' lots of stuff will stop working, light rail functionality will be the least of *MY* worries.
Jeff,
Isn't the problem here in the west(BPA) partially or mostly related to Meth users? They seem violetly irrational and have commited some pretty horrible crimes here locally. I didn't know if that enters into your analysis.
I read articles in our "ruralite" magazine about people getting electrocuted in substations. I would hope stealing high voltage wire isn't done except by druggies.
All this happy survival talk is sure making me glad of having reached my doddering old age. Checking out is looking better and better. Not that I'd have any choice in such an environment anyway. Good luck to all you younguns.
That's scarily morbid and funny at the same time.
Thanks for the best wishes!
Oh, no, I'm nearly dead serious. Reaching true geezerhood is my proudest achievement.
You're more than welcome!
Hi Jeff,
Thanks.
re: " They are now experiencing significant numbers of "attacks"..."
By whom, in particular? (Does anyone know?) Have any of the "attackers" been apprehended?
Copper theft is also occuring in Sweden. Cable drums at worksites, grounding lines and easy to get at copper roofs disappear. The efforts to limit it are aimed at the scrap dealers who get more of the same regulations used for gold and silver traders. This has happened before and seems to correlate with copper price, criminals goes for the easy targets.
Could you please relive the curiosity of a British reader to the frequent references to "soccer moms". Does this refer to the game known to the rest of the world as football and played in the dust by kids in every slum from Tijuana to Cape Town. Has it morphed in the US from the game of the people to some kind of elite activity?
ROTFLMAO!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soccer_mom
http://www.arctic.org/~trockij/soccer-mom-i-forgot-my-rpg.jpg
http://robert.strohmeyer.org/2006/08/gasguzzling_soccer_mom_opposes.html
I initially read rpg in that second thread as role-playing-game. It confused me for a second.
Every time I see pictures of cars that big I can't quite believe it. Some part of me still expects to be told one day that they were all made up as part of a "RangeRovers are economical" marketing ploy.