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138 comments on DrumBeat: March 9, 2007

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Substrate on March 9, 2007 - 10:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

What I find interesting is this:

Cut through the hype and this fact stands out: We have an estimated 112 billion barrels of crude oil reserves in U.S. oil sands and in offshore deposits, mostly in the Gulf of Mexico. That will power 60 million cars and heat 25 million homes over the next 60 years.

Why choose such an arbitrary number as 60 million cars and 25 million homes to come up with 60 years? A better number would be the roughly 21 million barrels per day the US actually uses, which would cut that "60 years" figure down to 15 years. But of course, all of us here know that it's not about reserves, but production and EROEI shouldn't be counted out either. Those last drops are probably useless on a net energy basis.

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tstreet on March 9, 2007 - 11:55am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Just think about how many homes it will heat in South Florida. Seriously, though, in 25 years, heating our homes probably won't be much of a problem even without oil. It's cooling that is the problem.

The, "if only we could get the government to unleash us" crowd always conveniently ignores the global warming consequences of a world dependent upon oil sands, oil tar, and the like. It's still fossl fuels, stupid, and it will take a lot more energy and emissions per final delivered gallon to fuel all those cars and homes.

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RickD on March 9, 2007 - 1:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I live in Michigan. How many degrees warmer do you think it will be in 25 years? Keep in mind that we commonly go down to zero at night.

Rick

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Cid Yama on March 9, 2007 - 11:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://www.energybulletin.net/13136.html

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RickD on March 10, 2007 - 8:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That article does not even have the word "degrees" in it. It doesn't answer my question of how many degrees warmer will it be in 25 years?

I understand it will certainly be less than 5.

Rick

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andrew on March 10, 2007 - 12:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

well i believe 2-3 degrees average warming is the 'we might have some problems' (sea level rises displacing hundreds of millions) threashold and 6-8 degrees is the 'run for the hills' temperature (at which most of the ecosystems of the world breakdown unless the change happens _very_ slowly)

so if it is warm enough to not worry about the cold at Michigan, i think there may be other problems that need worrying about.

The other thing to note is that global warming is an average but the extremes get more extreme - ie, you could end up with the occasional night at -10.

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thomas deplume on March 9, 2007 - 12:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Perhaps the 60 year figure was chosen because they know this reserve can't be extracted any faster.

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Not ManCon on March 9, 2007 - 6:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Or maybe, it's a way of deflecting the problem onto "someone else". For thirty-somethings (who are probably the target audience), "60 years" means not only will they be well into retirement (or dead), but also their children will be retired.

In other words, "business as usual for us, and our kids"

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elwoodelmore on March 10, 2007 - 9:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

the statement is completely contradictory "crude oil RESERVES ......offshore DEPOSITS"

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138 comments on DrumBeat: March 9, 2007

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