<A review of the underlying fundamentals of nuclear energyThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: March 13, 2007>

275 comments on Predicting the Past: The Hubbert Linearization

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Robert Rapier on March 12, 2007 - 1:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Do we have a mathmatical definition of the requisite "stability"? Could we give some metric of "stability quality" to a particular data set as a way of expressing confidence in its predictive ability?

Exactly the right question to ask. I think Stuart is looking at this. We have been discussing this essay some via e-mail, and I sent him my Texas data set so he could look into it.

I guess the point of this is trying to answer the question "for a given data set, how confident can we be in the predictions it makes", and can we come up with a definite mathmatical expression of that confidence?

Bingo! Give that man a cookie!

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sf on March 12, 2007 - 3:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Could you come up with a non-linear, asymptotic formula that would fit better with the observed increase in URR toward the end of the cycle? It's been many years since I saw the inside of a math classroom, so it's just a thought.

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DelusionaL on March 12, 2007 - 5:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It never gets much consideration IMO is the impact of technology. I fully understand the law of diminishing returns but some of the most productive improvements had to come into play at some point.
I don't understand how this would not add both to peak production and URR as what ever the (____)became widely accepted. The increase in production should generate somewhat of a addition to the curve.

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Black B. Gorilla on March 12, 2007 - 9:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'll venture into hand slapping territory and speak on DelusionaL's point.

If there is a impact of new technology on the HL result for Texas, wouldn't this impact come into play earlier on a Saudi HL and result in an increased stability of the curve compared to the Texas HL? Am I correct in thinking that Saudi oil came 'that much' later in the game?

A kid with a question should also show up with a toy in hand, so hope this at least is new:

http://www.energyandcapital.com/consumption.php

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BaSE on March 13, 2007 - 12:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Very cool! Thanks.

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