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I am now ready to bet a cup of post collapse coffee that the MacKenzie Valley pipeline will never be built.
Speaking of bets I must say that the persistent vigerous debate on the main TOD vis a vis HL analysis and the exact date of the peak is entertaining but I am not sure useful. As a lay person I find myself applying the cousin of "fuzzy logic" (fuzzy impression) to the whole question. Out of the fog of debate I have followed for a few years my "fuzzy impression" is that the peak is either here or so close that knowing its exact date beforehand is useless. Another fuzzy conclusion is that economic recesson or worse is a bigger more worrysome issue and that it is also so close that we may be beyond the point of any useful preparation.
In any event I am very pessemistic that governments or anyone will do anything meaningful to mitigate peak oil, economic disaster or climate change. In general we in the rich world are in a state of suspended disbelief. We act like an audience in a theater watching a movie of an audience in a theater where a fire breaks out. When a fire starts in our theater we can't tell the difference between that and the movie and won't until the heat gets us.
I highly suspect that the pipeline will be built. That gas is getting much more valuable every day. 67tcf (the estimate on Wikipedia) is worth 356B USD at $5.31/1000cf. Even if it costs 36B USD to build the pipeline money will be available. And $5.31/1000cf is a floor given the current NA production outlook
But I agree with your overall outlook.
Hi Tom, you may well be right so you will win a coffee.
I suspect you might have better coffee in VA than we will have by that time so I may have to mail it to you or take the train down.
One caution though. The gas amounts aren't all proven and I think investors, including the Canadian government might be reluctant to pony up. We will see more drilling up there so a better picture should emerge. I agree with you the price is a floor and will rise dramatically in the not too distant future.
Don