<DrumBeat: March 15, 2007 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: March 16, 2007>

204 comments on Innovation in Hard Times?

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veganmaster on March 15, 2007 - 11:36am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

The legendary Skeptic and magician James Randi mentioned in some of his lectures available online about the steady flow of nonsense that gets patented regularly in the US (toast, the peanut butter and jelly sandwich, "perpetual motion machines"). Thus as you point out the actual number of truly ingenious, realistic and useful patents may not show up at all in those quantitative graphs - I think what it shows mainly is the greed factor. Here I think of David Cross and his hilarious stand up bits on electric scissors, the "egg wave," and a zillion other truly unnecessary informerical garbage.

"There's got to be a better way!" ;)

And of the very small percentage of patents that are both realistic and useful, how many can be produced sustainably? Energy descent has begun IMO, and the best one can hope is that the truly important innovations will be ones that benefit society in a sustainable fashion, instead of just trying to make corporations and individuals rich.

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tandersonbrown on March 15, 2007 - 2:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm currently reading the book Shock of the Old by David Edgerton, which has the premise that much of the technology introduced since 1950 was just regurgitated in a slightly different form from what previously existed.

In essence, nothing we have now is really "novel", it's just repackaged and presented that way. I think the term "diminishing returns" is most appropriate.

Tom A-B

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step back on March 15, 2007 - 5:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

In essence, nothing we have now is really "novel"

Taking a quick look at Amazon's behind the cover peek of your book, the book seems to me to be nothing but repackaged horse manure.

To say that nothing (in essence) is "novel" after 1950 is to stretch the meaning of the word "novel" until it has no meaning at all.

1947: invention of the solid state transistor
1955: invention of the laser
19??: invention of the integrated circuit
19??: invention of the microprocessor
19??: invention of the internet
19??: invention of PCR (polymerase chain reaction)
1995: release of the Netscape browser
19??: invention of the fake yellow scrimage line for football fans watching Hi Def Flat Panel TV

It's incredible how many whiny non-creative minds there are out there to pooh pooh the creations of the few who do contribute to society.

One thing that is truly not novel is the existence of the jealous, nonproductive brother: Cain & Abel 2000BC.

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feedorfeedback on March 16, 2007 - 5:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well the solid state transistor didn't come out of the blue.

1883 The Edison effect (U.S. patent 307,031, the first patent for an electronic device)
1904 Fleming Valve later called diode
1915 The first true vacuum triodes
1931 The 845 power triode extensive used in RCA AM radio transmitters
1943 Colossus Mark I was an early binary electronic digital computer. Colossus used state-of-the-art vacuum tubes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edison_Effect
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/845_%28vacuum_tube%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossus_computer

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step back on March 16, 2007 - 8:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well that's about the dumbest reply I've seen in years on TOD.
What are you trying to pull, and over whose eyes?
How does high voltage control of electron flow through a vacuum (in, yes, "vacuum" tubes) after having been released from a filament heated cathode have anything to do with formation of defect free single crystal silicon and semiconductor fabrication processes?

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Stuart Staniford on March 16, 2007 - 3:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Please keep the discussion civil - "dumbest reply" doesn't help that. Thanks.

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step back on March 17, 2007 - 12:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Sorry that was dumb of me.

Picture me contrite.

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feedorfeedback on March 17, 2007 - 3:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Sorry that was dumb of me.

Apologize accepted.

How does high voltage control of electron flow through a vacuum (in, yes, "vacuum" tubes) after having been released from a filament heated cathode have anything to do with formation of defect free single crystal silicon and semiconductor fabrication processes?

Sure tubs aren't made of same materials and operate at much higher voltages. But the principles behind the transistor, controlling & amplifying currents, were already in used in vacuum tubes 50 years before the first solid state transistor. In that sense transistors aren't really novel.

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panarchist on March 18, 2007 - 3:27am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Like biological evolution, technological evolution seems to me to follow a process of selection for successful small variations (mutations) on previous ideas (traits). When viewed in the near term, these micro-scale evolutionary changes don't appear to be very novel. However, I believe that Darwin's finches evolved different beaks (no matter how subtle) because there were ecological niches/food sources (i.e. marketplace opportunities) available for those who evolved ways to tap into them.

When viewed at a macro-scale, a series of seemingly minor evolutionary changes actually creates novel innovations such as single-cellular lifeforms and eventually humans. We share approximately 90% of our genome with rats, 98% with chimpanzees, and 99.9% with other humans. I'd say novelty is in the eye of the beholder (and the spatial and temporal scales at which it is being viewed).

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jjhman on March 15, 2007 - 9:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Alternatively I noticed that the number of patents went down drastically during WW2. Yet the atomic bomb was developed, incredible fighting technology was thought up and brought on line as well as management methods to run the war machine and an incredible atmosphere of willing sacrifice to accomplish a shared goal.

Good god I sound like a cornucopian.

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204 comments on Innovation in Hard Times?

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