Robert, I named this the Law of Receding Horizons a few days ago.

What's true for CTL and tarsands is true for just about any form of "alternative" energy I can see. And it's only getting worse. The costs for the MacKenzie Valley pipeline, supposed to feed natural gas into Alberta, are now estimated at $16 billion, 4 times higher than a 2002/3 estimate. A CO2 sequestration pipeline in Canada went from $1.5 to $5 billion in 2 years.

I asked if anyone could come up with numbers to support "my" Law. Your $100 bbl for CTL is the first. Any idea for tarsands? I know, it could gallop way further than today. "At current prices" may not prove much. As you say, the cycle goes on.

Ethanol, corn version, is a prime example. Its production raises corn prices, which in turn raises ethanol production prices. And rising oil prices hurt ethanol production too. At what corn price would the whole thing collapse?

As I said before, supply and demand don't hold here, corn prices can't rise indefinitely, the market is not infinitely flexible. People need to eat.