I have also thought about the connection between low EROI and capitol costs. The simple example I use is that if energy is expensive you actually spend more on capitol investment to lower long term energy costs.

The example is buildings from the middle ages and earlier still standing in Europe. It worth it to build really well once. So to me the connection is that you quickly move towards a society of thrift or more correctly well spent money.

A throw away society like ours would burn itself up quickly in a low EROI environment. In a sense its a bit strange that you have to start looking back 500 years and earlier into history to try and understand how our ancestors lived and often thrived at the energy levels that existed at the time.

So I think you can see capitol cost rising quite a bit from todays levels since your building to last.

Time period about 5,000 years :)

No China is physically isolated by mountains and deserts and to the north Siberia. So it has real constraints on how far it could expand. If you read the history China rose and fell many times in wealth. The same with Eygpt and India all three can be considered reasonable isolated civilizations. The thesis holds for all three. China and India are much larger and more diverse than Eygpt so they better represent a region less impacted by regional weather patterns. India never really unified like China did so constant warfare had a bigger effect. Overall China pre 1800 is I think the best example of a long lasting advanced civilization built on low EROI.

China went through numerous dynasties and periods of warfare and peace and growth through its long history. If you read the trigging event for warfare was increasingly heavy taxes in a lot of the cases. Wealth would concentrate at the center and excess consumption would lead to a increase in taxes which eventually lead to revolt. The treasury would be drained a new Emperor installed and the cycle starts again.

The problem is the rich tend to get richer and in a fixed EROI society this eventually leads to revolt and conditions become unbearable.

None of our ancestors managed to convert this incremental yearly wealth into long term wealth for all the people.
Not that this could not have happened but the tendency tends to inexorably lead to the creation of a wasteful and inefficient ruling class that at some point collapsed under its own weight. This points to the real need for socialism like concepts in the face of low EROI. You can look at Israeli Kibbutz's for a example of socialism done well or even farmers co-ops in the US. It does not have to have negative connotations. I'm not advocating socialism but the facts seem to indicate that it could help dissipate the wealth away from the central elite which is whats critical.

Notice the only reason we have escaped this fate so far is that oil/coal extraction has continuously pumped the economy so even though we too have seen the rich get richer enough money is flowing in in the form of oil and product made from and with it that we don't collapse.

Since we have already primed the pump so to speak by having a wealth concentrated about as much as possible now before we move to a low EROI society my thesis points to a rapid collapse once the prop of oil is removed. Lets hope we have mitigating factors that offset 5,000 years of history I'm not exactly confident. I guess you could say that regardless of EROI or resources mans greed is infinite so without a basically infinite energy source collapse must happen since the wealthy cannot stop accumulating wealth.

Just like the black holes at the centers of galaxies have a effect on the evolution of the galaxy far greater than their size so does the infinite greed of our small ruling class effect all the people in the world.

To be honest I'd rather be one of the elite near the middle of a cycle so I'm not some sort of anti-rich. I think I'd make a great super rich person given the chance :) This does not change the facts.